I understand my example is "hindsight," but I am just wondering what you think he'd need to do to earn it. This is not about what we think he will do.
I'm wondering, if our disagreement is more about what we think $300M is in terms of production or more about not thinking he'll put up similar numbers as this one example.
BTW, the numbers I listed seems about like what I'd expect him to put up.
My thinking is this, if he's making $32M a year, he's probably worth $45M for 4 years, so we're up $$52M after year 4. Maybe he earns $32M for 3 years, so we're still up $52M after 7 years. Maybe his last 3 years, he's worth $25, $20 and $15. That's minus $32M. Overall, we're still plus $20M in terms of value.
Of course, one year being out with an injury flips it from plus to minus, unless it's year 9 or 10.