moonslav59

Can't we find the next Felipe?

Certainly possible, and we might play it halfway and wait until July to decide to have a fire sale or spend and go over the line for one last push. To me, if we know we are losing Betts (and JD to a lesser extent) then trying to win it all in 2020 makes some sense, but so does jumping the gun on the rebuild and making it happen quicker, sooner and better by getting something for Betts & JD (and maybe others, too).

The lowball offer to Lester may make this case different. Plus, I don't think we seriously tried to sign him over the Cubs. Look, I'm one of the few here that think we should offer Betts over $300M. If we offer him that in 2021 and he goes elsewhere, it's not the same as Lester leaving. Plus, we got something for Lester, and Porcello helped us for many years. Getting nothing for Betts and then watching him walk away for just 4th round pick would be worse than the Lester fiasco.

I have no issues with bWAR being different than fWAR. They both measure different things and place values differently. I can see how this can favor the argument that WAR is not perfect, but again, nobody is saying it is. I thinbk everyone knows a .333 BA means one hit every 3 ABs. It is a solid number, although some debate could be made about what are called hits vs reach on errors or ballpark dimensions and strength of opponents playing into it. WAR is not a solid or perfect number, and maybe those conditioned to know 2>1 have a harder time understanding the numbers are not a result of a perfect process like dividing 3 ABs into 1 hit, but that doesn't mean we have to throw the whole process out. It just means take the number with a grain of salt and use as you wish. I choose to use it as one tool in my tool box. It's not even my #1 tool, but it's right up there near the top.

It's not totally accurate. They do a hell of a lot of research to find which stats have the what value. OBP > BA and OBP > SLG. SLG>BA and so on... We at the water coolers try and juggle 10 different stats in our heads and come up with an opinion on who is the best or better than someone else. I'm fine with that, but I think the people who come up with WAR (fWAR and bWAR) know more than I do about the value of each measurable thing a player does on the field. I don't take that number as the be-all-end-all, and I know it's a cumulative metric. It's not meant to say a 6 WAR player is better than a 5 WAR player. It just says that in the selected time period, player A was more valuable than player B- maybe because he played more often. Knowing what it calculates and is meant to measure helps in understanding it. I don't pretend to know all the ins and outs, and maybe I'm wrong for trusting some stat geeks using science to determine total value produced, but I think their numbers are meaningful. I respect anyone who thinks differently or doesn't see the purpose of trying to reduce everything done on the filed to one number.

Here are a few FAs and their projected by MLTR contracts that may interest the Sox-some positions based on the idea that JBJ & Leon may be gone and JD, Betts, Price and/or Eovaldi may be traded. MLBTR Projected $/yrs SP $17M x 3 J Odorizzi $13M x 3 D Keuchel $15M x 2 C Hamels $11M x 2 M Pineda $9M x 2 Kyle Gibson $9M x 2 Tanner Roark $9M x 2 Julio Teheran (4th in GS since 2013) $8M x 2 Wade Miley $8M x 2 Pomeranz (say it ain't so!) $11M x 1 Porcello $8M x 1 Alex Wood $8M x 1 A Wainwright $4M x 2 Josh Lindblom $6M x 1 Rich Hill $6M x 1 Michael Wacha $6M x 1 Ivan Nova $3M x 1 Drew Smyly RP $14M x 3 Will Smith $9M x 2 Will Harris $7M x 2 Chris Martin $6M x 2 Daniel Hudson $5M x 2 Craig Stammen $5M x 2 Steve Cishek $7M x 1 D Betances $5M x 1 Pedro Strop 1B $14M x 2 J Abreu $10M x 2 M Moustakas (3B/2B) $8M x 1 Encarnacion (DH) OF $14.5M x 4 N. Castellanos $15M x 3 M Ozuna $7.5M x 2 Corey Dickerson $6M x 2 Avisail Garcia $6M x 2 H Kendrick (2B/1B) $10M x 1 B Gardner $8M x 1 Y Puig $6M Kole Calhoun $3M x 2 Shogo Akiyama C $7M x 2 Travis d'Arnaud $5M x 2 R Chirinos $5M x 2 J Castro Utility $4M x 2 Brock Holt (2B, 3B, SS, OF, 1B)

You keep saying we think it's "right" when everyone says it has flaws. We do think an all encompassing stat says more about a player's full value than a any other one dimensional stat by itself. Maybe a few posters present it like an argument ender, but it shouldn't be- same as anyone saying I see what I see and this guy is better than that guy based on my observations.

We did end up with Porcello by trading Lester and could have outbid the Cubs to get him back. Instead, we spent the money elsewhere. Rings since Lester trade: Cubs 1 Sox 1

I don't get the unethical part. Any player knows he may be traded at any time, unless there's a a no-trade clause. I'm sure JD has heard the rumors of trade, if he opts in. He can select some no trade teams, so he negotiated this back then, knowing trades are part of the game. BTW, if he gets traded, it will be to a team that is spending and looking to win, so it's not like he's going to the Marlins.

OK, I was thinking of his prior deal. Yes, he opted out being owed $65M/2 and signed for $93M/3.

More agmes played does add value. WAR is not meant to judge who is the best when they play, although you can get that number by dividing by games played. It is meant to measure how much value a player produced over a period of time. If Trout misses 40 games, he might still be the best player when playing, but he might not have had the as much value as someone who played 158 games at near Trout value.

I agree, but first I'd see about Price. I might even try to move both. Part of me is leaning towards trading Price, Eovaldi, Betts, JD, Hembree and JBJ. Use the savings to sign moderate FA to shorter term deals (let Bloom be Bloom) with an eye towards making us serious contenders as early as 2021. Reset the tax and then look to fill the biggest gaps with a stud or two in 2021 or 2022. I know many Sox fans will hate this idea, but playing it halfway makes little sense, to me. (BTW, I said the same thing about the 2013 season, where I thought we had played it "halfway" and look what that team brought us.)

I'd rather do that than lose Betts and JD for nothing next winter.

Certainly, I'd tell him we love him, appreciated his input to the team's past success, and will want him back in 2021, but if he holds a grudge, so be it. 1) I think we get way more than just one decent prospect by trading him. Yes, the team getting him pays about $28M, but he's worth way more than that for 1 year in the heart of prime, and the one year is less risky injury-wise. 2) Getting just a 4th round draft pick by watching him bolt via free agency would be a kick in the balls. 3) Offer him a great deal after 2020, and if he refuses and signs for ungodly numbers elsewhere, I think Sox fans will not be that upset- not like the Lester fiasco. 4) If we don't get Betts after 2020, it's not like we'll pocket the $30M+ for 8-12 years. We will spend it elsewhere, and I like Bloom's history of spending money wisely. That $30+M alone is more than he had per year with TB to spend on FAs. The worst case scenario is getting nothing for Betts and watching him bolt. The second worst might be keeping him and resigning him to $36M x 10-12 years and going bust. Better is to trade him for 2-3 prospects or young ML ready players that are cost controlled and then make a more than fair offer in 2021 and let the chips fall where they may.

True, but Kershaw was not going to be a FA, or am I wrong?

That's how I see it- flaws and all. I've never used it as a "discussion ender," and I actually use OPS and UZR/150 more than WAR in my posts.

A look at our Luxury Tax Budget as of now... $M Player/ Yrs remaining- (+ options+ 31.0 Price 3 25.6 Sale 5 (+1) 22.0 JD 1 or 3 (no opt out) 20.0 Bogey 6 (+1) 17.0 Eovaldi 3 13.8 Pedroia 2 4.5 Vazquez (+1) ARB Estimates by MLBTR (Red= possible non tender) 27.7 Betts 11.0 JBJ 9.5 ERod 4.9 Beni 3.4 Workman 3.0 Barnes 2.8 Leon 1.6 Hembree 1.0 Osich 0.7 M Hernandez 199.5 Total +15 Player Benefits + 5 (8 players on ML roster at min salary) +2.5 40 man roster-minors $222M Estimated Budget (-$15M with no JBJ, Leon & Hembree= $207M)

If DD were still here and had a mandate to get under the tax line, he might not have re-worked the deal, unless it lessened the AVV.

If he needs it, he should have it on Nov 16th, so maybe he'd help in 2021. I get why they wait and pray, but we have this guy under contract for 5 years, so let's protect as many years as possible. (Not saying he needs it, but by Nov 15th, we should know.)

Please! Do! Not! Put! JD! In! The! OF! (Unless it's in NL parks, and even then, plan his days off for some of those days.) He is not a good defender. He is injury prone. His bat is his value. If he hated DH'ing so much, he'd have opted out.

Good points, but retaining his own players were mostly at drunken sailor dollars.

Maybe his post was operating on the assumption that Merloni is 100% correct.

The old water cooler arguments used to pit BA vs HRs, RBIs vs Fldg%, Slg% vs OBP, etc... This guy was better at this, but that guy was better at that. Consensus was rarely reached. WAR attempts to put them all together. It weighs each skill based on data. It assigns a value and totals it all up. It is flawed, for sure, but I trust it more than my own flawed and biased way of placing total overall value or ranking players by total value hardly ever see play in sort of reasonable order.

The injuries suck, but when a starter starts 32 games, he faces over 750 or 800 batters. That's way more than Betts or JD PAs in a season.

Isn't trading JD & letting JBJ go another option? How about keeping JD & Betts by trading Price and/or Eovaldi? We have many ways to get under the tax line. We can even just let JBJ & Hembree go and be under the line- keeping everybody else and signing nobody.