moonslav59

So offer him $420M for 100 years and it's just $4.2M on the lux tax! LOL

It's his ask not his settle on number. I doubt anyone offers close to that, so no need for good byes just yet. I'd counter with $33M x 10 or and maybe $31M x 12. If he says no, trade him, now, re-set the tax, and then offer $34M x 10 or $32M x 12, assuming he has a great 2020 and is healthy. If someone pays more, then say "adios." I might go to $350M/10 or $380M x 12, but it's probably way too much.

True, and I feel less sure about him opting out now as I did a few months ago. My thinking is that after another good year, which I expect, he will seek a 4-5 year deal worth less than $19M a year but with more total value than $38M. I hope we can find a way to keep him beyond 2020, but unless we reset, I can't see us re-signing him, if he opts out. If he stays- he stays. 2 more years should still be worth it, for us, but if we have to reset in 2021, it's kind of pointless.

JBJ is my favorite player, but his contract is a drag. There are other equally great defensive CF'ers out there at a fraction of the cost.

So is the argument to "go for it" after everybody is already signed elsewhere. It was meant to be convoluted.

If he has the year he needs to have for us to win it all, like many here think we should shoot for, he'll opt out.

Maybe. Apparently he's still worth +6 on the trade value site, so they see him as worth more than he's owed.

Who IS going to give Betts crazy money? I'm thinking we can outbid anyone not "crazy."

IMO, the only way he doesn't opt out is if he gets hurt or decline sharply. If that happens, we may have wished we traded him before July.

Look again at my proposed "fire sale." JBJ, Price, Eovaldi and Workman are not "brand favorites." We are talking about Betts and JD. Both will be FAs after this year. Are fans that dumb, they can't see the benefit of trading them before we lose them anyways? Plus, we can bring both back next winter.

The actual money owed to Myers is not far from Price's deal. He's owed $68.5M over the next 3 years counting bonuses. If you subtract that from Price's $96M, it's $37.5M or about $12M a year more for Price. We can pay down some of that, as I suggested, and the benefit to us is that the LUX cost is just $13.8M a year. Assume we pay $3M a year. SD pays $9M a year for Price. We save $14M a year on the tax budget.

Not trading Betts may accelerate the decline beyond 2020.

Even without Mookie, the team is more fun to watch than many other past Sox teams I watched everyday.

This deal make so much sense, I'm not sure why it hasn't happened. Maybe SD has no faith at all in Price. I'd even add Workman to the deal, if they gave us a prospect not worth Workman's value- like Hunt.

Just because the Orioles suck so much, we can't be a last place team doesn't mean the situations are not similar. If we are 10 back in July, we will at least explore trading several players that will be FAs or opt out after 2021 and maybe even 2022.

It was by far the second highest offer on the table. It's a shame they changed their policy for Price, but at the time, Price looked as good as any FA pitcher in a decade.

Assuming injuries and age take their toll have nothing to do with professionalism of our players. We have some studs- no doubt, and that's what makes it hard to give up on 2020. You can't get much better than Betts, Devers, Bogey, JD and a healthy Sale, but this team has precious little else, except wings and prayers or rebounds, miracle recoveries and more. Look at the 40 man roster. I've not seen a more shallower roster since last century. We have 20+ players that are not expected to be much help in 2020. Sure, some will and some will surprise, but some we expect to contribute may decline as well. 40 Man Roster 2020 Only 8 pretty sure bets (maybe 7, if not counting Sale): Betts Devers Bogey ERod JD Sale (a big question mark) Workman Beni 12 Not Sure to be very productive Price Eovaldi Barnes Vaz JBJ Walden Taylor Perez Peraza D Hernandez Chavis Plawecki That's only 20 players total!!! 4 Future Help, at best Dalbec Chatham M Wilson Y Abar Maybe we get 20-21 total. That's half the 40 man roster! 16 Could DFA or trade for scraps (or injured) and I wouldn't blink an eye Hembree Pedey Velazquez Lin Brasier Brewer Reyes Weber Shawaryn Osich K Hart J Arauz (rule 5) C Mazza A Brice J Springs M Hall

No way we trade Devers or Bogey. They are the foundation we will rebuild around.

I'm surprised many seem to feel the idea isn't a possibility. We've seen the team sell 4 of it's 5 starters plus Andrew Miller in one year. We've seen the team trade AGon, Beckett & Crawford in one trade. I've never said it was probably or likely, in fact, I have said the opposite. I seriously doubt it happens. Also, we are losing these guys anyways, so I'm not seeing what the big deal is. Not trading anybody and clinging to long odds on 2020 is going to hamper our chances in 2021 and beyond. It seems clear to me there's a good reason to at least consider a fire sale at some point in 2020. I'm fine with anyone being against the idea, but to say it has little merit or can never happen is denying history and logic. Of course, it CAN happen, even if unlikely to do so.

I do think the Dodgers are desperate. It's the main reason I have been talking so much about trades with them, but they are very tight with their prospects, and rightly so. Trading 3 top prospects is giving up 15 years for 1 of Betts. I get that those 15 years are speculative or even highly speculative, but guys like Vergugo, Gonsolin and Strippling have already shown something at the ML level. The Dodgers are clearly looking to add one major piece, but we are not the only team they are talking to. The Sox are desperate, but have less teams to talk to.

Depending on how well players are doing and how healthy players are, offers could get worse. Also, if the idea is to reset, waiting until Julymeans traded contracts are pro-rated, so more players will need to be traded to get to the reset number. Waiting almost guarantees a fire sale in July- perhaps for pennies on the dollar vs nickels, now.

I'm not assuming the offers get better. One year of Betts is better than 2 months, although 2 months is cheaper. Also, trading for Betts, now, adds compensation, if he signs elsewhere in 2021. Workman's value may never be higher. Price and Eovaldi may get hurt, again or suck to start 2020, so trading them this summer might be even harder. I agree on waiting with JD. His market might heat up, and it's virtually dried up now, anyways. The 2 year players (ERod, Barnes & Hembree) can wait. I'd try to extend ERod. To me, getting something now for Betts makes sense. Reset and then go after him this winter. Getting some salary relief for Price & Eovaldi cuts our losses and could be additions by subtractions. JD is a big part of this team, but if anybody think's he's not opting out, this winter, then you must be thinking he'll get hurt of decline in 2020, so keeping him for a "lost year" makes little sense. I'm not for handing him away for nothing, but we won't get much now, so I'd wait on him. Betts and at least one from Price & Eovaldi, now. The other plus JD and Workman in July. Maybe Barnes, too. If that's a "blow-up" then so be it, but we'll be much better positioned for 2021 and beyond doing this rather than doing nothing and hoping some trade values rise by July.

The plan for July could be. That's what I said, and I'm pretty sure it's been discussed.

Betts is great, but it's only one year. Both the Padres and Dodgers plan on sticking around longer than that. I don't blame them for trying to lessen the return. I don't even get why the Padres are in on Betts, and their offer shows how much they really want him. The Dodgers might be desperate for an all-in win in 2020. Several of the top teams got weaker, and the NL lost a lot of FA talent to the AL. That being said, asking them to part with several top prospects with 5 years of team control, each, for just a one year window opening is clearly an issue to them. Very reasonable. If I were the Sox, I'd forget about forcing Price on the Dodgers, but would insist on Eovaldi for Pollock or Pederson as a way of evening out the money issues we face longer term. Maybe get 2 good prospects added, and if we have to add Workman (FA after 2020), then so be it.

No. We may have a huge fire sale in July... at least most players with bloated contracts or less than 2 years of team control. That scenario is "in play."