moonslav59

Expect about the same pro-rated IP'd from Martin Perez (1st in IP in 2020), Nathan Eovaldi (2nd) & Brasier (8th). Expect zero IP from these pitchers: Mazza (5th) Godley (6th) Springs (10th) Osich (13th) Kickham (T14th) Covey (T14th) Stock (16th) Hembree (20th) Triggs (24th) Workman (25th) Leyer (26th) Tiapa (27th) Non pitchers ONLY Workman is a significant loss here, and the total IP's from these players was 170 IP which is 33% of all 2020 IP! 33%! of the worst IP GONE! Expect less to way less from these pitchers: Weber (3rd most IP on Sox in 2020) Valdez (4th) Brewer (7th) Brice (11th) Walden (17th) Hart (18th) Hall (21st) This list totals 125 Total IP or 24%. 33+24%= 57% gone or greatly reduced. That's a lot of room for improvement when projecting those IP'd being replaced by... Expect more from these pitchers: DHern (22nd) Barnes (9th) Taylor (24th) Expect way more from these pitchers: ERod Richards Sale Houck Pivetta Ottavino Andriese Sawamura Whitlock Mata, Seabold, Gossett, Bazardo

One could just have easily expected a downturn from JBJ as un upturn from Beni. No way did we get worse by replacing these two with Renfroe, who by himself is better than Beni, Kike, Franchy & Marwin. We are also adding a full year of Dalbec. Yes, our pen is a mess, and Ottavino is "no savior," but he improves it. Barnes did not pitch much in 2020, either. He will in 2021. That's a big help. Our rotation did get better "but it didn't take much." LOL! Just because it sucked, last year, doesn't mean a massive improvement should be viewed as "It didn't take much." Even if ERod & Sale do not come back at full or near full force, our rotation is much much stronger, on paper. 2020: 12 GS=20% 2021: 32 GS=20% 2020 GS%>2021 GS% 20% Perez> 20% 15% Eovaldi> maybe 15% again (24 starts) 20% Godley & Weber> 20% from ERod + Sale 20% Mazza, Brewer Kickham>Richards + more than Houck's 3 GS in '20 20% Hart, Triggs, Brasier, Brice, Osich, Hall, Leyer + 2 from Pivetta> 20% more from Piveta plus Whitlock, Mata, Seabold On paper, this looks like a massive improvement. Of course, much is speculative, but one could say teh same about the Yankee projected rotation.

I meant it in terms of him leading us to the playoffs or beyond in 2021. Sure, he'd improve our CF situation, but if it's just a glove we needed, we could have signed several players for dirt cheap, and even Dyson is still available. I would not sign him for one year, if it puts us over the tax line, and since he won't sign for $5M, I don't see it happening, at all.

Contracts Ending Soon (Lux dollars) After 2021: $13.8 Pedey $8.9 Ottavino $8.3 ERod $4.5 Barnes $3.0 M Gonzalez 2022 Options: $10 Richards ($1.5 buyout) $7 Vazquez ($0.25 buyout) $6 Perez ($0.5 buyout) $3.5 Andriese ($0.25 buyout) After 2022: (any option players who stayed in 2022) $22 JD $20 Bogey (opt out?) $17 Eovaldi $7.0 EHern ~1.8 Plawecki $1.5 Sawamura Not counting arb players that could be let go.

With so many one year deals and options for 2022, we can easily get under, next winter, but if we are heading towards a better and better roster, going forward, why sacrifice a later year for 2021?

I disagree. It's no so much about paying a small tax for going over in 2021, but if we plan on spending very large in 2022 or 2023, starting the yearly tax clock in 2021 sets the rates a year ahead going forward. That could amount to a big tax difference 2-3 years from now or necessitate an earlier reset at a time when we rate to be more competitive than 2021. I just don't see JBJ as "that guy" we absolutely need to have for 2021.

Something we finally agree on.

According to cots, Cashman and the Yanks went from $204M opening day budget in 2019 to $200M, this year (so far). The Sox have gone from $236M in 2019 to $204M, this year (so far). The 2020 budgets: $108M NYY $74M BOS Who spent more, this winter? Bloom or Cashman?

I do think the idea of a reset on the tax was going to happen at some point rather soon, but after extending Sale & Bogey, it was not clear we were headed towards a full rebuild mode.

According to cots, we have about $5.6M to spend after Sawamura. I seriously doubt we choose to go over the tax line for JBJ. Had we signed Pillar at $5M, we'd have had nothing for any mid-season deals. Even Adam Frazier at $4.6M would be cutting it too close. $5.6M seems like about the number you want to keep for a possible summer deal(s). If we can get someone by adding just $1-3M, we may do it, but JBJ is not coming back to Boston.

...and I don't see how extending Sale & Bogey shows "the team was heading for a rebuild and veterans have little interest in rebuilds."

Springs sprung is twice as nice as Brice.

The bottom of our 40 man roster was atrocious at the end of the 2020 season- something I had hoped Bloom would have improved in his first year. It seems like he has, this winter. Here's my list of the bottom of the roster in order of who I wouldn't mind seeing traded or DFA'd: DFA'd: Wilson (if we add an OF'er) Brice DFA's/Traded: Walden Brewer Traded: Valdez Chavis Arauz Wong ? Taylor ? We also kept Weber, Munoz & others (from 40 man to non 40 man).

Certainly an idea. Can't we just cut someone the day we add someone?

Springs has sprung.

Gone from 2020: JBJ Beni Pedey Peraza Lin Rusney Castillo Chatham Grullon Godley Kickham Covey Tapia Stock Leyer Triggs Aybar Payamps (added after 2020 season) Springs Added: Richards Ottavino E Hernandez Renfroe Cordero M Gonzalez Sawamura Andriese Whitlock German C Koss Winckowski PTBNL from Mets (Khalil Lee) 2 PTBNL from KCR (Beni) PTBNL or $$$ for Chatham I'd have to say that is a pretty nice revamping of the 26 man roster, but even better with the bottom of the 40 man roster and non 40 man roster system.

Springs was just DFA'd to add Sawamura to the roster.

Springs DFA'd as Sawamura is officially signed.

Unlike Andriese and Brice, he has options left, so yes. Whitlock's rule 5 status locks him into a 26 man slot. I still think cutting or trading Brice allows us to have better pitchers on the 26 man roster, but I get the idea of keeping as many pitchers as possible available. Sign Sawamura and trade Chavis & Brice for Frazier & Brault and call it a winter.

The other interesting point is that the Yanks projected to 89 wins,last year and lost Tanaka, Paxton, Happ and others, but now, magically they win 95. One could easily argue the Sox improved by more than the Yanks did, but he gives both teams 6-7 more wins.

Thanks. That does mean we can use his roster slot for one more signing or addition. Again, it's not like DFA'ing Springs or some others would be a tough thing to do.

I've been a big JBJ supporter, but I am not for bringing him back. I doubt he'd take a $5M/1 deal, so NO CHANCE!

Some may consider 47.1 IP as "long enough." I don't, but I do think it warrants him getting another shot over Brice, Springs and Wilson. Walden had some success, but it seemed like smoke and mirrors, to me. (I guess one could say the same about Taylor's 2019 season: 1.18 WHIP/ 3.11 FIP/11.8 K/9.) BTW, he also put in 23.1IP in AAA in 2019 with a 1.18 WHIP & 12.4 K/9. That's over 70 IP combined. His AA numbers were horrific in a much larger sample size.

Doesn't moving him to the 60 Day IL have to happen after the season starts? Does that mean our last roster addition will happen opening day or the day after? I still thing we can easily DFA Springs, Walden,Wilson or even Brice before the Sale move is made, and we could add 1-2 players at low costs.

How did extending Sale and Bogey fit into this neat analysis?