moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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He's probably worth $80M for 2020. Would he get that in a contract? No. But, the owner makes money of Betts.
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My point wasn't about waiting until July. It was about the "reality" that 6 months of Betts could net a top 10 prospect, since 2 month rentals have in the past.
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Top 10's have gone for less, but my guess is we get 2-3 decent prospects or young ML players.
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Yes, of course. Apparently, and I don't necessarily disagree, his on-field value is $77M.
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I've seen large hauls go to 2 month rentals not as good as Betts. That's reality, too.
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So, Betts for Pollock, Gonsolin & Stripling? The simulator says this is off by almost a Ruiz or Urias+ Cartaya or Downs + Gray.
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Taking Pollock off the Dodger's hands is a big plus for LA. They have Verdugo, too. The simulator, for right or wrong, has Betts at +50 and Pollock at -31.8. Stripling & Gonsolin total 38.8 We should be able to get much more, even if this site is wrong.
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If we trade Betts & Price and get back Pollock and Gonsolin and/or Maeda, we don't really have holes at OF and SP3/4. We could then trade JBJ and sign an OF'er (Ozuna, Castellanos, Puig). We could also sign pen help (Hudson as a bridge to 2021 or Stammen, Cishek or Wood) We could also trade for salary. Pollock is superfluous to the Dodgers. If we get Maeda and Gonsolin, Price is no longer superfluous to LA.
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Price is already a hole in the rotation. We can't count on him. Pollock and Maeda/Gonsolin do not leave holes. Gonsolin might be a better bet in 2020. If we can get Maeda, too, I'd try. We could pass on Downs and Cartaya and go... Betts & Price for Pollock, Kelly, Maeda, Gonsolin, Wong and Beaty If Pollock & Maeda stay healthy and Kelly rebounds, we may be as good as with Betts and an iffy Price.
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I'm not sure how it's different from trading Betts and then dumping Price is a separate deal.
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Taking Pollock just about evens up the actual worth of Price. (He's owed $42M/3 counting the buyout, so that makes Price cost $54M/3 or $18M x 3.) Now, that is assuming Pollock has no value, which is not true. The Dodgers getting Betts for Pollock is a huge gain. It's enough for us to get Gonsolin and Busch or Wong. Betts & Price (no money) for Pollock, Gonsolin & Busch or Wong. If we take Kelly, the money works better of LA, and we can get Pollock, Kelly and Gonsolin and Downs or instead of Downs- Cartaya & Maeda. Pollock + Kelly= about $21M on the Lux tax. That saves us $11M a year for 3 years. That's huge. Losing Betts's $27M, this year, gets us way under to reset. It allows us to sign a couple remaining FAs, now and maybe make a move at the deadline. $11M off 2021 and 2022 allows us to re-sign Betts.
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The Dodger "fit" just seems too real to be just a rumor. The Dodgers want a big stud to put them in the favorite's slot. That's Betts. The Dodgers can probably take on some salary. That's Price or Eovaldi. They have some players that can help balance the money to just the extent the Sox can tolerate (Pollock, Kelly, Pederson). They have some decent prospects/players beyond Lux, May and Ruiz that fit our positional needs: (Simulator Value) P 29.1 Urias 19.9 Gonsolin 18.3 Gray 12.2 Maeda C 10.3 Cartaya 10.0 Barnes 4.3 Wong OF Peters 8.3 Rodrigiez 5.4 2B 21.9 Downs 7.6 Busch 4.6 Estevez 1B 3.3 Beaty 5.4 Vargas 4.7 Santana 4.5 Rios I'm thinking a deal gets done with the Dodgers or Padres (Myers + young talent).
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I'm not saying I want this deal done, but it was accepted by the trade simulator: Betts (50.0) for Gonsolin (19.9) P Cartaya (10.3) C Peters (8.3) OF Busch (7.6) 2B Beaty (3.3) 1B- good platoon match with Chavis 49.4 Total OR Betts & Northcut (51.4) for Downs 2B 21.9 Gonsolin P 19.9 Cartaya C 10.3 Total 52.1 Here's one with Eovaldi: Betts & Eovaldi (20.5) for Joe Kelly -12.7 Gonsolin, Cartaya & Beaty Total 20.8
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Trading Betts is not about getting equal return, although we can. It’s about getting something for him, instead of a lousy comp pick. Re-sign him next year or spend that money elsewhere. I’m not saying I’m for trading Betts, since I want him to retire a Sox, but losing him next winter for nothing is the worst scenario, to me.
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ERod and Porcello via Cespedes were not entirely unproductive. Plus this is and was then more about clearing budget space for the next season.
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I thought I was clear about this being about 2021 and beyond.
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Sounds okay, but why miss out on getting something for Betts. If keeping him helps us keep him, which I’m not convinced it does, then I’m all for this idea.
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My guess is, if we don't reset in 2020, signing Betts in 2021 and trying to reset in 2021 would seruiusly hamper any chance at winning in 2021 and probably beyond. If we tried to win in 2021 by spending, basically we'd be over the line by about what Betts will be paid ($34-39M/yr), and all would be taxed at 50%. Just reset in 2020 and try hard to bring back Betts at a 20% tax rate in 2021. That's about $7M vs. about $18M in taxes. Think of what $11M can get you on the open market.
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Depending on what we get back in return, trading Betts & Price would (seemingly) all but end our 2020 chances. The idea would be to improve our chances in 2021 and beyond, including the idea that we might bring Betts back. I remember people saying back in 2012, after we traded Lester, Lackey, Peavy, Doubront & Miller, we had no chance in 2013. Never say never.
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Even if we don't get Betts to sign with us, resetting better positions us to build up our roster for 2021 and beyond.
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A 50% tax on Betts's next contract is a lot.
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To me,maybe the best way to keep Betts long term is to reset this year. If trading Betts and then re-signing him positions us better in 2021 and beyond, then maybe that's the best choice.
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There's no way we get LA to go for that. I may not even get Pollock & Gonsolin for Betts and Price, even though the simulator says the Sox come up short.
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Can? Yes. Betts and JD could repeat 2018 not 2019, too. Will we? Not likely. Is going for one last (long odds) hurrah in 2020 worth delaying and hampering the road back to the top?
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5 making almost $135M- about 65% of the budget. Plus... (after 2020) 1 more year of Pedey at $13.8M ERod's last arb (4th year arbs can get expensive.) Beni's 2nd arb Barnes 3rd arb Devers 1st arb and more... I'm still looking for a reason why resetting in 2021 makes more sense.
