moonslav59

Well, Renfroe vs RHPs (.717 and .733 in 2019) is better than Beni vs LHPs (.691 but .796 in 2019), but the righty split means many more games. The real comp is Renfroe and Beni vs Arroyo (or maybe Chavis). On offense, both blow Arroyo away as a platoon, but vs their worst splits- not so much so, but on the defensive side, we'd improve at 4 positions by playing EHern in CF full time or vs LHPs. Arroyo: .597 v LHPs (Beni .691) .678 v RHPs (Renfroe .717) We could also play Chavis v LHPs and Arroyo v RHPs and use EHern FT in CF. Although Chavis hits RHOs better than LHPs, that could just be a fluke due to small ML sample sizes, but Chavis blows Arroyo away in OPS v LHPs: Chavis .699 v L .740 v R (This assuming Chavis recovers from his 2020 splits of .650 v R and .611 v L.) This one reason I wanted us to sign a 2Bman over a CF'er or RF'er.

I thought of that after I wrote my post mentioning his era. Some great ones surely came up during his time as GM. (Some were acquired before he became GM, but still...)

The O's, Rangers, Mariners and Tigers are all horrific. fangraphs projects 65-74 wins for all 4 teams. The Royals and Guardians are projected under .500. It's interesting how they project 6 of the 15 AL teams to be under .500 and 10 of the 15 NL teams to be under .500. I doubt that works out that way, but I think we can all agree the Sox are significantly better than those 6 AL teams and 10 NL teams, of which we won't play most of them. That leaves the Rays (82 projected wins), A's (83), Angels (85), CWS (86) all pretty close to the Sox (88), Astros, Jays & Twins (89). The Yanks are by themselves in the AL at 96 projected wins. I can't see how anyone can say the teams projected between 82-89 wins, all look better than us, on paper, or at least significantly better where they take 2 our of 3 against us every series. Sure, if nobody comes back from injury, and all our players who had down years in 2019 or 2020 continue doing poorly, we may come close to 90 wins, but other teams will experience the same things, too. If you truly believe the 2019 team was as bad as they showed, despite being just slightly different from the record setting 2018 team, then I can see why you see little hope for 2021, but many of those players still on the team from 2018 are still in their primes or not that far past prime to expect something good from most of them. Some were not quite at prime in 2018 or 2019 and could be expected to do better in 2021. Our 2021 health is nearly impossible to project, so much depends on how you feel players like Sale, Eovaldi, Richards and ERod will do, and how many innings they give us.

Odorizzi and JBJ would get us over .500. We won't sign either, but it's there.

Fun like Manny, yes. Fun like Carl Everitt, maybe not so much, although he put up some nice numbers.

I'm still sticking with my call of Marisnick- now more than ever. He'll be cheaper than most on notin's list. Who is the best 2Bman let on the market? Lowrie?

Our defense sucks, so even with a 10th ranked rotation and a top 5 or 6 offense, we may still struggle to reach 87 wins. That's one reason I want EHern in CF.

It's like they were trying to make poor Tim feel useless.

It's mind-boggling, but much of MLB's decisions fall in that category.

The 2019 team underperformed by a lot. Clearly, they were a better team on paper than 78 wins. They were pretty close to the same team as 2018, and it's harder to "elaborate" on the massive drop in wins between 2018 and 2019 than 2019 and 2021. You also have to look at the strength of other AL teams. The Astros are way worse than the 2017-2020 versions. The Rays look worse on paper, but I never count them out. The CWS have improved. The Twins and Angels should be good. The Guardians and A's may compete, but the rest of the AL is in bad shape- worse shape than the Sox. I'm not going to say projecting 78-82 wins is wrong. I can certainly see that happening, but I think our 2021 team should be much better than the 2020 team which projected to 65 wins. We did end 2020 going 12-9, which included wins vs NYY, ATL and TBR, and 2020 saw 60- 80% of our rotation on the IL at any given moment.

That's probably true, especially since his innings will be limited, but we only signed 1 SP'er, this winter- a guy who has barely pitched since 2015. We have 7 SP'ers with one not returning until July. Sale Eovaldi ERod Richards Pivetta Perez Houck Possibles: Whitlock Seabold Mata Weber Mazza Gossett Hart

YES! His contract was purchased for $1.00.

That was a nice era, too.

We were talking about players brought up in the early to mid 1970's- very good to great ones. Lee came up in 1969, but his first significant season was 1971, so maybe he can count. Lyle should not count. He pitched 43 innings in 1967 and 66 in '68. Reggie Smith, too. He had a few games in '66 but was FT by 1967. Roger Moret fits the time frame but maybe not the very good player aspect of the category. He pitched a little in 1970 and over 70 innings in '71. He had a 116 ERA+ from 1970-1975, sso that may be considered "good enough." The list is clearly weighted by non pitchers, that's for sure.

As of now, before all FAs are signed, I think 86.

The only reason I think this may be hard to do is that we currently have 7 "main starters" with Sale sure to start the season on the IL- maybe even the 60 day IL. That leaves no room for anyone else to start on the IL for Houck to be considered the 6th starter. I suppose, we could start and "opener" every 5th day, or start someone like Whitlock. It may be more likely that Houck starts as a starter and is moved to the pen, when someone comes back from the IL- like Sale.

The Yanks have stayed about even, but were good to start with. The Jays improved. What other AL team got better over the winter? Some, clearly got worse, on paper. I think the Sox got better- not even factoring in returning players from injury and COVID or players possibly rebounding from bad years. Yes, we play a ton of games against NY & TOR, but if we win 2 out of 5 vs them and 3 out of 5 against the others, we'll likely make the playoffs. Those are big "ifs," but I find it interesting that some posters who railed against the idea that the "cliff" and that the idea was a joke are now preaching doom & gloom, while many that were sure of the "cliff" coming are now optimistic- maybe overly so.

Good point. I never thought of this, despite our city, Sugar Land, Texas, having the Skeeters as an Indy team for years.

I knid of expected several bargain basement moves by Bloom. Maybe some are in the works, but too many will put us over the tax line, unless we trade salary....not likely after a deal like Ottavino's.

...and maybe a handful of players that would have made MLB but got squeezed out of ever getting a shot at the minors. Yes, neither new nor tragic.

Have you looked at the rosters of most AL teams?

I meant for the players that don't make any teams, anywhere. The whole cake will be shrunk. Many players, a few of which could possibly be good ML players at some point, will never get a look see. That, of course, happens now to those who never make any teams or happen to suck when they get their brief look see. I don't see overseas leagues expanding. Maybe more Americans go to play there, but I'm not sure they want a heck of a lot more.

Indeed, although many of those 100 are low impact players. That's why I said "As of now..."

The Richard O'Connell Years (GM 1965-1977) Fisk had a brief cameo in 1969, but came up in 1971. FT in 1972. Ben Oglivie in 1971. (Traded in '74.) Cecil Cooper in 1971 for a few games. ('73 30 gms/1974 121 gms) Dwight Evans in 1972 (FT by '74) Jim Rice in 1974 (FT in '75) Fred Lynn in 1974 (FT in '75) Rick Burleson in 1974. (FT by '75 and traded by '81) Butch Hobson in 1976 (after 4 PAs in '75/ FT by '77) Then, Haywood Sullivan took over and it was all over, so quickly. Lou Gorman brought us '86, and Duquette set the stage for Port/Theo & Co.

What would be the mechanism for undrafted players to get a chance? Maybe there would be none, and we just write off the few Mike Piazzas. Maybe tryouts are held or some kind of combine for undrafted players. The future seems to be headed towards less minor league teams and players.