moonslav59

Here are some salary dump players that we may or may not want or need, but who may help us get a quality player as part of the package. While some of the players have only one year left on their contracts, their GMs may be dying to dump them, and their contract will be gone from out ledger after just one season. AL East BAL Cobb $15M ($14.3 Lux Tax) BTV Value: -11.6 Possible players we want: SP Means 26.1 OF Santander 20.2 1B/OF Mountcastle 16.8 OF Mancini 14.4 LHP Scott 13.0 LHP Fry 7.3 TBR Kiermaier $24M/2+opt ($8.9M Lux Tax) -9.7 Tsutsugo $7M/1 ($6M Lux Tax) -3.3 Possible players: Closer: Anderson 23.8 SP: Yarbrough 13.0 SP: Fleming 11.7 RHP: Fairbanks 9.4 LHP: Beeks 5.8 OF: Margot 4.0 1B/3B: Brosseu 3.4 TOR OF Grichuk $31M/1 ($10.4M Lux Tax) -12.6 SP Roark $12M/1 ($12M) -9.7 Possible players: OF Hernandez 31.9 (probably not realistic) OF/2B Gurriel 26.3 SP Thorton 6.1 LHP Kay 5.5 SP Stripling 3.2 AL Central KC Duffy $15.5M/1 ($13M) -9.0 OF Soler $8.1M ($8.1) +2.4 Possible players: 2B/OF Merrifield 36.9 SP Keller 19.2 RHP Barlow 13.7 1B/3B Dozier 6.4 SP Juniz 5.8 DET SP Boyd ~$6.5M arb + 1 more arb 0.0 BTV Possible players: OF Reyes 16.8 OF Cameron 4.0 OF Jones 3.8 2B Goodrum 2.6 CLE Carrasco $24M/2 + opt ($11.8M) +8.8 Possible players: SP Quantrill 7.8 OF Luplow 6.1 LHP Allen 2.8 MN 3B Donaldson $73M/3 ($23M)-37.1 3B/1B Sano $25M/2 ($10M) -5.0 SP Pineda $10M/1 +2.3 Possible players: OF Buxton 19.5 SP Dobnak 17.5 LHP Smeltzer 7.9 CWS SP Keuchel $38M/2 ($18.3) -7.5 OF Eaton $7M/1 + opt ($8) -2.4 Possible players: LHP Bummer 19.7 RHP Heuer 6.9 2B/SS Mendick 4.3 AL West TX 2B Odor $24.7M/2 + opt ($8.3) -25.9 SS/2B Andrus $28.5M/2 +opt ($15) -16.9 SP Lyles $8M/1 ($8) -8.0 OF Dahl $2.7M/1 + 2 arbs -1.7 Possible players: OF Gallo 23.9 RHP Leclerc 17.7 SP Allard 6.7 SP Palumbo 6.3 SEA 3B Seager $18.5M/1 + opt ($14.3) -6.9 SP Kikuchi $31M/2 ($14) -3.3 Possible players: 3B/OF Moore 12.3 C Murphy 8.9 SP Margevicius 3.8 SP Dunn 3.3 2B Long 2.2 OAK DH/OF Davis $16.8M/1 ($16.8) -15.3 OF Piscotty $15M/2 + opt ($5.8M) -12.7 Possible players: SP Manaea 10.9 2B/3B Neuse 3.5 HOU SP Greinke $32.9M ($34.4) -18.6 RHP Pressley $8.8M + opt ($6.8) -2.4 1B Gurriel ~$10M (last arb) -2.2 Possible players: SP Javier 14.4 OF/2B Straw 3.7 RHP Paredes 3.1 RHP James 2.0 LAA OF Upton $52.7/2 ($21.2) -42.7 Possible players: SP Canning 30.1 SP Sandoval 10.3 SP Heaney 9.6 SP Suarez 5.6 2B Rengifo 1.9 NL East NYM 2B Cano $48M/2 ($24M) -40.5 RHP Familia $11.7M/1 ($10M)-13.0 RHP Betances -$6M/1 ($6M) 3.5 Possible players: OF Nimmo 32.7 OF Conforto 26.8 SP Syndergaard 18.9 SP Peterson 11.1 ATL OF Inciarte $8.7M/1 + opt ($8M) -9.4 LHP Smith $26M/2 +opt ($13,3) -8.4 Possible players: 3B/OF Riley 19.5 SP Wright 7.2 SP Wilson 6.7 LHP Minter 3.7 LHP Newcomb 0.9 PHI LF McCutchen $20M/1 + opt ($16.7M)-18.0 2B Kingery $19M/3 +opt ($4M) -17.7 Possible players: SP Eflin 19.3 RHP Abel 17.3 OH Hasely 6.2 SP Velasquez 5.6 LHP Romero 2.8 MIA OF Dickerson $9.5M/1 ($8.9)-4.2 OF Brinson Pre-arb 0.2 Possible players: SP Lopez 63.0 SP Hernandez 10.7 OF Harrison 10.1 SS/2B Rojas 7.5 OF Ramirez 3.4 LHP Bleier 3.0 NL Central Cubs OF Heyward $65M/3 ($23M) -55.3 Closer Kimbrel $16M/1 + opt ($14M) -10.8 SP Darvish $59M/3 ($21M) +21.0 Possible players: 2B Hoerner 30.1 OF Happ 28.9 1B Rizzo 18.9 SP Alzolay 6.4 LHP Wieck 5.4 3B/OF Bryant 5.3 RHP Wick 4.2 3B/2B Bote 3.3 MIL OF Cain $35M/2 ($16M) -17.7 OF Garcia $11M/1 +opt ($10M) -7.8 Possible players: SP Woodruff 130.9 SP Burnes 71.1 SS/2B Urias 26.6 LHP Hader 15.5 SP Houser 14.6 SP Lindblom 7.6 RHP Rasmussen 5.5 C Narvaez 4.6 OF Taylor 1.7 STL 1B Goldschmidt $101.3M/4 ($26M) -36.7 SP Mikolas $51M/3 ($17M)-27.7 OF Fowler $16.6M/1 ($16.5M) -17.0 3B/1B Carpenter $18.5M/1+ opt ($19.5M) -14.7 LHP Miller $12M/1-9.3 RHP Martinez $11.7M/1+Opt -5.8 C Heineman ).0 2B Moroff 0.0 Possible players: SP Hudson 28.0 OF Bader 19.4 RHP Gallegos 14.2 OF O'Neill 8,3 RHP Reyes 5.5 OF Thomas 5.0 PIT OF Polanco $11.6M/1 ($11.6) -13.5 1B Bell ~$6M arb + 3rd arb 0.0 2B Frasier ~$4M + 3rd arb +4.0 SP Taillon $2.3M + 3rd arb +20.3 SP Musgrove ~$4M + 3rd arb +36.4 Possible players: C Stallings 8.4 2B Newman 5.6 CIN 1B Votto -85.9 2B Moustakas -19.6 OF Castellanos -17.6 SP Miley -4.1 OF Akiyama -3.4 LHP Biddle 0.0 RHP De Leon 0.0 RHP Romana 0.0 OF Smith Jr 0.0 Possible players: SP Castillo 114.8 SP S Grar 35.9 SP Mahle 33.9 OF Senzel32.9 OF Winker 26.0 RHP Sims 9.8 SP Antone9.5 RHP Lorenzen 4.9 C Barnhart 2.4 NL West LAD OF Pollock $31M/2 + opt ($12M) -21.2 Closer Jansen $20M/1 ($16M) -14.8 RHP Kelly $8.3M + opt ($8.3M) -10.6 Possible players: SP Urias 47.4 LHP Ferguson 9.4 C Barnes 6.9 SDP 1B Hosmer $81M/5 ($18M) -71.0 OF Myers $45M/2 + opt ($13.8M) -17.0 LHP Pomeranz $28M/3 ($8.5M) -3.5 Possible players: SP Lamet 69.9 OF Grisham 40.2 C Campusano 30.1 (prospect) SS/2B Croneworth 29.5 C/1B Nola 20.2 SP Morejon 12.0 C/OF Mejia 3.6 AZ SP Bumgarner $79M/4 ($17M) -49.0 2B/SS Ahmed $26M/3 ($8.1M) -7.6 Possible players: 2B/OF Marte 61.4 $15M/2+ 2 options SP Weaver 12.6 SP Smith 7.9 UT Locastro 5.7 SF 3B Longoria $43M/2 + opt ($11.2M) -41.5 SP Cueto $26M/1 + opt ($21.7M) -21.3 1B/C Posey $25.1M +opt ($18.6M) -9.6 SS Crawford $15.2M/1 ($12.5M) -6.6 1B Belt $17.2M/1 ($14.6M) -0.6 Possible players: OF Yasrzemski 58.7 OF Slater 14.5 SP Webb 13.6 UT Flores 9.1 RHP Anderson 3.7 COL 3B Arenado $32.5M x 5 -43.7 OF Blackmon $52M/3 ($18M) -27.5 OF Desmond $8M/1 +opt ($14M) -10.0 Possible players: SS/2B Rodgers 26.6 1B/2B McMahon 8.8 SP Freeland 8.1 SP Gray 6.7 SP Lambert 6.6

It depends on how much the player we get back is being paid. What seems like a reasonable contract, to us, may be a salary dump for the other team, and they'd gladly take Chatham or Arauz to rid themselves of a contract. Or not.

The only "added value" to Arauz is that he no longer needs to stay on the 26 man roster. Since he's barely good enough or ready enough to make many 26 man rosters, I'm not sure the 2.1 value BTV gives him is even justifiable. Chavis seems like he has the profile of dozens of players DFA'd every year, and some of them don't even K as much as he does. Quite frankly, I'm shocked by the 7.5 value BTV gives him, and that's one reason he's included in almost every suggested trade I make. If there's a GM out tehre that thinks that value is about right, we need to hunt him down and force a deal at gunpoint. Chatham at 4.5 seems way over-rated. I doubt he can even make half the teams 40 man rosters. Duran at 12.1 seems a little high, but even if that is his true value, if we end up getting Kiermaier or Inciarte, losing Duran is not going to leave a hole. Mata at 12.4,Casas at 22.2 and Downs at 26.4 should only be included if we get a key player with 3+ years of team control at a reasonable salary (arb?) Jimenez 8.5, Yorke 6.3, Jordan & Lugo at 6.0 might be wanted by teams looking 3-5 years down the road, but I'm also not for emptying the farm for some distant hope that we can win it all in 2021 or 2022. Ward 4.5, Wong 4.3, Song 3.8 and Groome 3.7 maybe be add-ons that get a GM to take a deal, but only teams not looking to compete for quite a while.

I'm almost 100% certain a deal like this will be made- maybe even two: one for Kiemaier or Inciarte and one for Kingery or Odor. I don't see Duffy being good enough to fill a nigh need slot. Familia still may have a good year or two in him. I'm not sure Yarbrough, Fleming or Fairbanks are good enough to help us all that much, but maybe Anderson from TB can be gotten. Maybe we can pry 2 of these pitchers out of TB. Baz would be nice, but he's no help for 2021. Then, there is the $100,000 question of who,if anybody, the Rays want. I could see us getting Kiermaier, Fleming & Fairbanks. Is that a big help, even if we get them for Chavis & Chatham. The Braves may not even want Dalbec, and even if they do, what pitcher would they give us for taking on Inciarte's contract? I think getting Odor or Kingery may allow us to get better players and or give less in return. I'd like to see one shoe drop. This winter is dragging.

I think that has to be viewed as the best way for us to acquire quality players. Rather than just sign JBJ, take on Kiermaier or Inciarte's contract, add some useful and valued talent like Duran or Dalbec (Chavis, Chatham Ward or Groome, if we can get away with it) and get a pitcher much cheaper than a FA. We fill two needs: CF and SP at much less financial cost than signing JBJ & Odorizzi. Then, with the "savings" we sign a couple very good RP'er and maybe a 2Bman and call it a winter.

I think everyone would rather keep Duran over Beni, but that also means other GMs would want Duran more than Beni, too, and they'd give back more to get him. Teams looking to cut salary may not even want Beni, if you gave him for free. A Beni, Chavis & Arauz package may not get us anyone, let alone a player that fills a high need area as a plus player. That trade would also open a 2021 hole in the OF that is already a priority.

I'd prefer combinations of lesser valued players like Chavis & Chatham, but I seriously doubt other GMs want them all that much, if at all. They'd be 40 man roster bubble players on several teams. There are guys like Ward & Groome, but neither are going to bring back the world, even when added to 2-3 others listed above. That leaves Downs, Dalbec and Duran. I'd hesitate to add Mata to the list. Casas might be a guy we trade for someone with 3-4+ years of team control. I really like Dalbec, but we can always sign Moreland. (So could other GMs, instead of trading for Dalbec.)

Getting Stallings added on from Pitt could make it happen

Hartless!

Good one!

These simpler deals are much more likely than my 6 player deals. We'd need another trade or signing to fill our catcher slot, unless you are okay with Plawecki/Grullon with Wong a ways off.

The way he's heading, he may be a better hitter than pitcher, before too long.

It's not so much about not liking Duran, but to get good quality, we have to give something up.

I think Merrifield would be a fine addition, but I think his BTV is too high. Duffy shows very little promise of returning to form. I don't know enough about Hasely or Thomas to have an opinion, but I do think Chavis is over-valued. I've seen rumors that Pittsburgh is looking to deal Musgrove or Taillon and have mentioned Adam Frazier (2B) and Josh Bell (1B) as possible pieces. Fangraphs has Frazier as a slight plus defender at 2B, since 2017, and he's got a career OPS at about .750. Bell had a great year in 2019. I'd hate to part with Dalbec, but for these three, I'd do it (other would be needed). I've mentioned including Polanco in the deal to lessen the return needed, but he doesn't really fit in with our roster, unless we sell low & trade Beni. (one could counter that Pitt is selling low on Bell, as his BTV is "0". Bell has one arb year left, after this and is projected to make $6M, this year- which is too much for Pitt. Frazier has one arb year left is may make about $4M, this year- again, too much for Pitt. Polanco has one year left at $11.6M. Taillon, of course, is the prize. He also has one arb year left. In theory, I'd like to see us trade for a player or players with more than just 2 years of team control, but 2 guys with 2 years is nice. Downs should be ready at 2B in 2 years. Casas will be close at 1B. The BTV site accepted this deal, but I can't see how Pitt would do it: Chavis (7.5) + Chatham (4.9) for Taillon (20.3), Frazier (4.0), Bell (0.0) & Planaco (-13.5) They also accepted Chavis & Beni for the same. (I'd even add Groome or Ward to any of the deals above. I'd probably give Dalbec & Chatham for those 4.) If we drop Polanco, this gets the deal done on BTV: Duran, Chavis & Chatham for Taillon, Frazier & Bell We fill 2 needs and get 1B insurance for Dalbec without losing a big name player or prospect (sorry Duran fans). This might be a more realistic trade from Pitt's point of view 9all accepted on BTV): Dalbec, Chatham & Groome for Taillon, Frazier and Bell (I'd even add Beni for Polanco to sweeten the deal for Pitt, but BTV denies that trade. It even denies that deal swapping out Chavis for Dalbec. It makes Pitt give $3M to BOS to accept it.)

JBJ, Kiermaier & Inciarte are all almost the same exact age. JBJ has certainly had a well-documented up-and-down past few years and career. It's hard to know which JBJ will be next year or in 2022. His defense appears to be slipping, but he started at such a high point, that he is still a clear plus, in my book. JBJ's roller coaster career: OPS+ 53 first 2 years (530 PAs) 118 next 2 years (891 PAs) 91 next 2 years (1076 PAs) 98 last 2 yeaars (784 PAs) Kiermaier has seen two pretty distinct divisions: 2014-2017: 107 OPS+ 2018-2020: 82 OPS+ Inciarte hs been the most consistent: between .705 and .759 from 2015-2019 and only 4 of his 7 seasons being between .732 and .759. His worst two seasons were his first (.677) and his last (.512 in just 131 PAs)

In theory, a trade for Kiermaier or Inciarte will cost us about the same as signing JBJ, but since they have negative trade value, we could maybe get a useful player that fills a need or builds up the farm along with one of them, and the return package should be light. For example, Kiermaier and Anderson has a net value on BTV of +14. Kiermaier, Anderson & Fairbanks= 24. Kiermaier & Yarbrough is +5.4, while Kiermaier, Yarbough & Fairbanks is +15.6. Mix and match these guys to come up with a decent deal for us: 21 Vaz 17 Dalbec 12 Duran 7.5 Chavis 5 Chatham 4.5 Ward 3.7 Groome 2.1 Arauz or Wilson 1.1 Grullon 1.0 Bello

Well, in 2017 he had the 7th best OPS (.721) on the team (30+ PAs). I'm not saying it will happen, but you should be able to do it, if you want. From 2014 to 2017, his OPS was .706 in 292 PAs.

Is Kiermaier too weak a hitter for you guys? Career .732 JBJ .720 Inciarte .720 Kiermaier But... OPS 2018-2020: .742 JBJ (.727 from 2017-2019) .688 Inciarte .669 Kiermaier

When Bumgarner pitches, the team should be allowed to DH for the catcher or 2Bman or whatever.

It's one of the dumbest ides I've heard.

MLBTR on the Red Sox... Red Sox Rumors: Outfield, Rotation, Second Base, Barnes

When people say VTek had a better CERA than Posada, that's crazy and useless. When you compare catchers on the same team, the same years and only against the same pitchers-one by one, it shows value. Just looking at total CERA between 2 catchers on the same team in the same year is not useful, since some pitchers only throw to one catcher or almost all to one catcher. Pitcher by Pitcher shows something useful.

If you look at the pitchers with significant sample sizes with both catchers, it's nearly a shut out in Leon's favor. While warped variations in sample sizes with some pitchers can be ignored, when you see the vast majority all favor Leon, it adds to the case made against Vaz. All the small sample sizes add up to the same conclusion- year after year. If you throw out any match up where one catcher has less than 45 PAs from 2017-2018, the score is 10-0 in Leon's favor. If you only count sample sizes of 95+ PAs with both catchers (like Dalbec's 2020 season), the score is 7-0 Leon. It's 4-0 when using 135+ PAs by both. If you add PAs from 2017-2018 together and use 300+ PAs as the min sample size, Leon wins 2-0, with Porcello and Price. He's ahead with Sale, but Vaz only has 228 PAs, and Pom where Leon only has 120 PAs. Yes, small sample sizes should not count, but when everyone shows Leon did better than Vaz and the ones that do have large enough sample sizes all show Leon doing better, why shouldn't it matter? Plus, we're talking about ERA differentials of over a run in many cases. ERod is the only starter who bucks the trend or no big variation, and even with him, Leon does slightly better.

Exactly, and I doubt any GM would agree to any of the trades I suggested.

They hate it, because people use it to compare a catcher with the Sox vs a catcher with the Yanks, and I agree, that's dumb.