moonslav59

Captain Houck!

I would not base our OF plans on Duran playing at all on the big club in 2021. If ends up earning a shot, great, but if we want to win in 2021, we need at add 2 Of'ers to our roster: CF and 4th OF'er.

I certainly felt a lot better about Price, before we signed him, than I do about Bauer, now. It's not easy to make these kinds of calls. Signing Scherzer would have been a great signing. Price will end up costing us over $100M for basically 2 good years- not even close to his best two seasons.

Maybe since it's new management (not new ownership), he could let bygones be bygones. I'm not sure looking to sign ageing vets makes sense to a long term rebuild. Short deals, okay, but Lester may be looking for 3-4 years.

Only if we sign Realmuto. By adding Vaz with Eovaldi, we get a more reliable and better pitcher than Eovaldi and maybe free up some budget space to improve another weak area, but by signing Realmuto, one could argue the budget is hurt by this whole idea. One could also argue saving some money by dumping Eovaldi would lessen the financial hit of signing Realmuto.

Any thoughts on these free agents? LeMahieu $90M/4 Brantley $45M/3 Turner $25M/2 (Move Devers to 1B?) Others listed on bleacherreport that might fall near our likely contract range: Kirby Yates Mike Minor Shane Greene Liam Hendricks Jonathan Schoop If we decide to go larger (maybe for one not 2 guys) Tanaka Stroman Ozuna Springer

Does that mean $10M/2 or $13M/2? I don't think I'd go over $5M a year. I'd like to see what Pillar gets offered.

My guess is he will look for the longest deal possible. An opt out will not be something that would help him as much as others, IMO. I've never been high on Vaz's defense, and I don't know much about Realmuto's D, but if we could trade Vaz and others (Eovaldi?) for a quality, reliable starting pitcher, that might tip the balance on signing him. I'm not sure why hardly anybody wants us to sign Bauer. True, he hasn't been a big innings guy, but that may be a good thing, since his arm has not been over-worked. He has had 26 or more starts since 2014. He's had 28 or more starts in 4 of those 6 seasons, including 34, last year. Yes, his ERA has been over 4.18 in 5 of those 6 years (not counting 2020), but he's been at 3.22 the last 3 years combined. His WHIP over the last 3 years is 1.125 with a K/9 of 11.2. His ERA+ has been at 106, 109, 196, 106, 271 the last 5 years, including 2020. It's at 143 the last 3 years combined. That is very impressive. I agree, he does not deserve David Price money and years, and if someone offers him that, I do not want us to match or surpass that, but I seriously doubt anyone goes that high and long.

Did Price's deal work out the first two seasons? Yes, he led the league in IP year one, but 74.2 IP'd in year two was a drag. ERA+ 122 w TBR 136 w DET 179 w TOR 117 w BOS first 2 years combined. It was year three he gave us his best: 123 ERA+ and 176 IP +26 extraordinary playoff IP.

I hope they sign them both to massive longterm deals.

LOL.My bad. Worse, that's the second time I've done this!

Jacko's silence on these responses is deafening!

I'm not saying I want these guys or would want us to sign them, but here are a few names (with projected salaries by thegamehaus): LeMahieu $90M/4 Brantley $45M/3 Turner $25M/2 (Move Devers to 1B?) Others listed on bleacherreport that might fall near those ranges: Kirby Yates Mike Minor Shane Greene Liam Hendricks Jonathan Schoop If we decide to go larger (maybe for one not 2 guys) Tanaka Stroman Ozuna Springer I seriously doubt we even kick the tires on Bauer or Realmuto.

For argument's sake, let's say we add Mata, Potts, Groome, Wong, Seabold and Rosario to the 40 man roster to protect them from rule 5, here's a look at what our 2021 40 man roster might look like before any additions, re-signings or trades. 18- Pitchers: Sale, Eovaldi, Perez, Erod, Houck, Pivetta, Seabold, Godley, Weber, Mata Barnes, D Hern, Valdez, Taylor, Brasier, Brewer, Walden, Groome 4- Catchers: Vazquez, Plawecki, Grullon, Wong 2- 1B: Dalbec, Chavis 4- 2B: Arrojo , Munoz + (Pedey 60 day IL) 2- 3B: Devers, Potts 1- SS: Bogey, Chatham 5- OF: Verdugo, Beni, Wilson, Puello, Rosario 1- DH: JD That's 37, but guys like Chatham, Puello, Grullon and Walden could easily be added to the "bubble" list below: Bubble (players currently on our 40 man roster: Mazza, Hart, TapiaCovey, Brice, Springs, Stock, Triggs, Leyer, Kickham, Hall, Lin, Aybar, Arauz, Peraza I'm not seeing a major roster crunch, this winter. We have room to acquire 6-8 players without having to clear space for them that causes us to lose anyone real promising.

Here's the Sox Rule 5 List for this winter: Christopher Acosta Eduard Bazardo Garrett Benge Gary Calvo Pedro Castellanos Kutter Crawford Ricardo Cubillan Chad De La Guerra Jerry Downs Jose Espada Rio Gomez Jay Groome Hunter Haworth Matt Kent Jose Larez Adam Lau Dominic LoBrutto Everlouis Lozada Bryan Lucas Charlie Madden Alan Marrero Joan Martinez Bryan Mata Tate Matheny Alexander Montero Oddanier Mosqueda Brendan Nail Brett Netzer Tanner Nishioka Emerson Ortiz Michael Osinski Yorvin Pantoja Isaac Pinales Antonio Police Hudson Potts Bobby Poyner Roniel Raudes Austin Rei Denyi Reyes Jeremy Rivera Jeisson Rosario Jagger Rusconi Yasel Santana Zach Schellinger Alex Scherff Connor Seabold Mike Shawaryn Kervin Suarez Jake Thompson Josh Tobias Connor Wong I'm seeing about 6-9 players we may add to the 40 man roster from this list.

It's very hard to win a ring by acquiring 4-7 studs in one winter. I'm not for signing a bunch of players long term, this winter, but identifying 1-2 that look to be part of our longer term plans could be added, this winter. That would lessen the pressure to add too many next winter. If we sign one guy for $16M x 6 years and another for $9M x 5 years, that's only $25M out of the $70M we have to spend. Some can be spent on 1-2 years deals or "bridge" signings. We're losing $25M in salaries after 2021, so adding $25M would be covered by that for 2022. We might also go very large for one guy, in hopes he leads us beyond 2022. I'm not sure a guy like Bauer or Springer fits in with our long term budget plans.

I said he deserves a look. That doesn't mean I have to have false hopes. The "glowing reports" have not moved him into any top 100 prospects lists. He certainly is promising, and you can't teach speed, so he has some nice skills. His "great season" in low A ball was aided by a likely unsustainable high BAbip. Let's give him some time in AA and AAA before we start counting on him to make the team, let along help us win in 2021. He is more likely someone that might help by 2022. I'm not giving up on him. I may have lower expectations than others, here, on him, but I know I like guys like Ward, Jimenez and other more than others, so I don't see myself as a Sox prospect naysayer. Here is soxprospects.com summation of Jaren Duran: Summation: Potential fringe starting outfielder with two carrying tools. Ceiling of an everyday center fielder. Nailing down his future projection is tough without a chance to evaluate swing changes made in 2020 without true game action. Speed is not a question, and hit tool should get to above-average if he can refine his approach. If 2020 power development is real, he could become a dynamic offensive player. Has already shown strong ability to make contact and drive the ball into the gaps. With his speed, has the potential to put a lot of pressure on the defense and inflate his average with infield singles and slugging by taking extra bases. Could also steal 30-plus bases if he improves his instincts. Is still continuing to develop in center field, but likely to develop into at least an average defender there and has the raw tools to become an above-average defender. Has one surefire major league impact tool in his speed, so should have a role on a major league roster even in the worst-case scenario, especially if MLB retains the runner-on-second rule in extra innings going forward.

We paid Kimbrel $13M a year not $17M. I do think Eovaldi may work out best as a closer, but with just 1-2 years left of team control and our rebuild maybe 1-2 years away it makes little sense to pay $17M for a closer on a team not likely to be a highly competitive team until at least 2022. If we are seriously looking at making a strong run for 2022, JD, Eovaldi and maybe Bogey's last years here, then I can see holding onto him, but an argument can also be made that trading him might improve our odds in 2022, too, and better position us for beyond that year.

I'm fine with that idea, but counting on adding 2-4 solid FAs after 2021 might not be as easy as finding one or two this winter and one or two next winter. Getting one or two now would help us be better in 2021 while still being a big part of 2022 and beyond. I'm not for spending the whole budget on long term deals, but spending none on long term deals is going to make it hard to find true quality.

He's only 26, and replacing a pitcher who only pitches half the time is not such a big deal. I'm not making the deal because I have much faith in Odor. I'm making the deal to free up some cash for the next 2 years. No, we probably won't strike magic at $8M a year, but Bloom is pretty good at finding under-the-radar gems, and the idea is that maybe instead of signing a pitcher for $12-18M a year, we could add the $8M saved from Eovaldi and get a mucch better one at $20-28M per year. Look, I'm not sold on it being a sure fire good idea. Eovaldi is a damn good pitcher, when healthy, and he can pitch much better than his $17M contract, but with just 2 years left on his deal and our rebuild maybe taking 1-2 more years, I'm at least looking into dealing anyone with less than 3 years of team control- not handing them away, of course.

Do you have faith he'll make even 42 of his scheduled 64 starts over 2021-2022? I'd probably bet the under on 34 GS'd.

His high A numbers were not as great as they appeared, either. He has a lot to prove, IMO. Yes, he has great speed, but is it smart speed? Is he a great defender? Does he have good base-running instincts? Does he use his speed for anything more than a bunch of infield hits? I, honestly, don't know.

Pedey, ERod & Barnes may total $25M for 2021. That's a pretty big chunk of change to have added to the winter spending budget after 2021.

I'd do the Odor trade, yesterday. He's owed $27M over the next 2 years, including paying off the $3M buyout for the 3rd year. Eovaldi is owed $34M. While we save $7M over 2 years, we actually save $8.75M PER YEAR on the luxury tax budget. That's very significant. We could even throw in another player or chip in the $7M to even the deal for the Rangers, but we'd still save over $5 a year on the tax budget.

You know I've always respected you, but come on. The kid is 25 and has less than 300 career PAs at the ML level. Surely, not much can be "proven" in that short a sample size. His minor league numbers are pretty good, but they are also small sample sizes: AAA: .846 OPS in 418 PAs AA: .689 in 517 PAs A+: .789 in 416 PAs .775 in 1952 minor league PAs total.