moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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The whole system has changed in the last few years. Baseball is very different from what it was 9, 18, 27 or 54 years ago. On the 5 year sample size, I was responding to a post that said they felt the last 5 years showed the craps hoot theory was sound. I feel the best team winning 3 of 5 times, when the crap shoot theory would predict about 0.5, showed the opposite. Do you have a link that shows the best teams are close to having an equal record as the weakest teams? (long sample size)
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Indeed. Same with the Pedro trade. Do you think Taillon could be an ace? He might be the best we can expect without giving away the whole farm. (On the BTV site, I've done numerous suggested trades with us getting him. The one I like the best is Philly getting Vaz, Pitt getting Abel from Philly and Ward from us, and we get Taillon.)
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Me, too. Unlike many Sox fans, I really enjoy off season Sox news. I don't enjoy no news.
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I was okay with the Price signing, because we needed an ace, and Price, at that time, was about one of the best that had been available in years (along with Scherzer before). The way the Price signing worked out, signing Bauer looks like an even bigger mistake, although I try to avoid taking positions based on one bad deal. (Not really "one" either.)
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Sad day for MLB.
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I kinda hope so. 1. He is not as good as other top FA starters signed in recent years. 2. Now is not the time to go big on the best player on the market. 3. He would likely take up too much of our winter spending allotment. We have too many weak spots and pretty bad full roster depth.
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MLBTR- While the Red Sox were among the teams that liked Sugano, they are “uninterested” in offering any pitcher a four-year deal this winter, writes Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. They are, however, willing to offer two-year or three-year terms to certain hurlers. As Speier writes, that dovetails nicely with the team’s ongoing Jake Odorizzi pursuit. Arguably the second-best free agent starter remaining on the market, Odorizzi is expected to land a three-year deal in the $36MM — $42MM range.
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Solid.
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Well said. My guess is we will get to the point where we feel like we are one or two big additions away from being a top 3-4 team, and Bloom will be given the green light. I doubt that time comes this summer, and maybe not even next winter, but I'm hoping it's not too far away. I am also hoping we don't strike out on our next large and long deal(s).
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I think we will sign some players for the "long term." They may not be flashy, but they could be good to very good, and there could be 3 to five of them...maybe even 6.
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Agreed, but my guess is, and I am just guessing, that Henry has realized this is not "the year" to go the extra step to build a true WS contender, so the winter spending budget is not nearly as "flexible" as it was with DD before the winter of 2019. This by no means we are less "Flexible" than most teams. With today's circumstances as they are, most teams are looking to cut spending or stay even. Then, out of those willing to add from 2020, they won't be adding as much as we do. I'm certain we will out spend the vast majority of teams, this winter. Call it whatever you want, but "flexible" seems to fit well.
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If he signs more martin Perezes and Perazas, I'll agree, but I think his spending budget is higher, this winter. He may still sign some head-scratchers, but even then, I'm cutting him some slack. Perez and Plawecki actually over performed on my expectations. (Peraza did not.)
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Astros-to-sign-Ryne-Stanek
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The AL has been weakened by trades, so far- at least in terms of 2021 team skill levels, so if the Sox sign a few good players, we may leap frog quite a few teams in the on-paper rankings.
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Good point, but the assumption is no big deals are on the agenda, and we likely will not go way over the luxury tax line. This still gives us way more payroll flexibility than the vast majority of ML teams, IMO. I do think, when all is said and done, we will be one of this winter's top spending 5 teams. I am certain we will be from today and onward. It just won't me big flashy signings, unless you think Odorizzi, Kluber or Hand are flashy.
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I consider all the players you mentioned part of the wait and sign bargain signings of decent to good players. Add low cost E Hernandez and a CF'er and we'll have spent more than 80% of the teams from today onward.
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Way less teams, and some of the the teams that will end up spending more than the Sox have already spent much of their budget and may have less left over than the Sox do at this moment. I would be surprised if 5 teams spend more than the Sox fro this day forward, and that includes whoever signs Bauer, Springer and a couple others.
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Yes, and sometimes the odds-makers make the much better team the prohibitive favorite to win a series- sometimes higher odds than many NBA series. Just because the worst record team wins a WS every now and then, doesn't make the odds random. If it was random, Vegas would be losing millions to people betting the dog every game.
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Toronto.
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I see the exact opposite position over the past 5 years. 50 teams made the playoffs, and only 5 were best record teams, yet the best record team won 60% of them (3 of 5). You'd expect zero or one, if it was totally random.
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So, if you divide the playoff teams into two groups: the better half vs the worse half, you'd call a 55% to 45% split a "crap shoot?" How about a 60-40 split? A 2 to 1 split? Well, 78% have won the WS in the last 9 years. Maybe it used to be somewhat random, but it is not anymore. Even more convincing, about the last 9 seasons, 4 of the 9 WS winners were the best record teams. Total randomness would predict about 1. Okay,maybe you can claim "small sample size." Something I have used often, but times have changed. The rich have gotten obscenely richer and better.
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It's amazing how they can lose Kluber, Clevinger, Bauer &Carrasco and still have a good rotation.
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He's staying in Japan. -MLBTR
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Every GM will not have the spending budget Bloom will likely have. Therein lies the difference.
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Again, I'm not saying wait until the very end. There will be plenty of decent players signing later in the cycle. We don't need to sign Bauer, Springer, DJ or Realmutto to add serious value without busting our budget.
