moonslav59

Billy Beane & the Sox? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-10/beane-s-play-for-red-sox-could-signal-the-end-of-moneyball-era?utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=business&cmpid=socialflow-facebook-business&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR0esGuChb0gs7uaW5_Uw2Rler3lqoFHepoH7xIENt8hNsVQrzGuq8_YiG0&fbclid=IwAR0hlg1XMWWgm0GSpuyDgQh5JuDmSQNacD7P2VsIIDVI8Qh-kKs8wKX5QwI

If he stays on the 60 Day IL all year, he does not count as a member on the 40 man roster. His contract will always count on the luxury tax budget, unless he retires and forgoes his salary.

Well said. I will add that he looked very healthy and pitching at a very high level at the end of 2018 as well.

Yes, I get that, but the drop was more than just that.

Looking at the BTV numbers, I think they have these Sox players over-rated: 12.1 Duran 7.5 Chavis 5.5 Beni 5.2 Brasier 4.9 Chatham Boy, Devers' value sure went down! Here's who I think are under rated: 35.9 Devers 12.9 DHern 4.5 Ward 2.6 Houck 0.0 Perez & Munoz -18.2 Sale

I get your point, but usually when you talk about "sunken cost" or "underwater contracts" the player in question sucks or is grossly overpaid. One could maybe argue being overpaid by about $5M a year is "grossly overpaid," but most probably don't think of it that way. As for Eovaldi's on the field value, here's how BTV values Sox players before adjusting for salary: 86 Sale 79 Verdugo 60 Bogaerts 50 Devers 35 Dalbec 32 Vaz 22 Eovaldi 21 D Hern 19 Beni 17 ERod 17 JD 9 Brasier & Chavis 8 Taylor 7 Arroyo 6 Perez 5 Barnes & Pivetta 3 Covey & Arauz 2 Valdez & Peraza 1 Plawecki & Munoz Our worst? -5 Walden 2 Springs & Triggs -1 Brewer

Here is my attempt at the 2021 40-man roster: Add 5 Free Agents Pitchers _FA_, Eovaldi, _FA_, Perez, Pivetta, Houck, Seabold, Mata, Groome/ 60 day IL: E-Rod & Chris Sale _FA_, Barnes, _FA_, DHern, Taylor, Brasier, Weber, Valdez, Brewer Dylan Covey, Chris Mazza, Domingo Tapia, Marcus Walden Christian Vazquez, Kevin Plawecki, Deivy Grullón, Wong. Bobby Dalbec, Michael Chavis Christian Arroyo, Yairo Muñoz, Jonathan Arauz/ 60 day IL: Pedroia Xander Bogaerts, C.J. Chatham Rafael Devers, Potts Andrew Benintendi, César Puello _FA_, Rosario Alex Verdugo, Marcus Wilson. J.D. Martinez

We need a CF'er not a LF'er. Do you mean $12M x 3 or $4M x 3 for JBJ?

Of course, it sucks when we suck, but I don't think being happy the Yanks lose is like a brat missing a scholarship. This is the Yankees we are talking about- not some brat.

Rosario plays CF.

Maybe. Somehow, I'm thinking if he was a Sox player, you'd not be saying this.

How are the Rays "evil?"

Durable? Yes. Good? Unknown. Costly? Not likely too much.

Too much "hope" involved in our 2021 chances.

No Dodger WS. I'm pulling for the Rays to beat the Braves. If it's Houston-LAD, I could care less.

He probably would accept, since trading him would surely be to an immediate contender, but who knows. (BTW, I am not in favor of trading Bogey.)

"Underwater"does have a more negative context to it just saying "negative." Let's assume BTV value is correct. They say Eovaldi is worth $11.9M x 2, and he's being paid $17M x 2. $5.1M/$17M is a 30% overpay. What do you think should be the minimum percent the term "underwater" should be used? 30% is pretty significant, but $5.1M for only 2 years does not seem all that massive. Certainly the CC, Price, Pablito & HRam deals were much worse.

Just like "My Packers!"

I had no really "happy" baseball memories before 2004, so this is better than nothing. 2018 was not that long ago, and I'm seeing an improving outlook, so I'm not hung up on the past.

Certainly, some player's contracts are more "underwater" than others, but I think the term is useful. We'll probably never agree on how much underwater Eovaldi's contract is. The BTV has him at -10.2, so they basically are saying he's worth $11.9M x 2- not $17M x 2. ($17M salary- $11.9M value= -$5.1M per year). I'm not saying they are the foremost authority on projected value, and I actually think he's worth more than that, speculatively thinking, but I doubt any GM would give him more than $11-12M x 2, this winter. Injury prone pitchers have gotten more than that, selectively here and there, so I don't know if there is one GM out there who would offer more. I'm fine with keeping him and hoping he can give us one full season or even moving him to the closer role to try and improve the chances he can stay healthy, but when you look at ways we can free up some salary space to add more or better players, his name is near the top of any list for doing so. What is the "break even point" for JD? Half his salary? 2/3? 3/4? There's usually not a big rush to sign DH's, but maybe he could attract someone who thinks he can play corner OF, perhaps with a short home field OF. Sale won't be traded. Trading Bogey might make sense due to the opt out, but if we are looking at winning in 2-3 years, it's hard to see that without Bogey.

Good summary of where you guys are, right now. You certainly should be a major contender, next year, if injuries don't keep popping up like they have for multiple years, recently. You don't have a lot of gaping holes to fill and your 40 man roster is deep. You even have some players not on the 40 man roster that look very promising- both now and down the road. I think you really need a durable and near ace-like SP'er. That can be costly.

I have been suggesting trading Eovaldi, getting a player back that essentially pays half of Eovaldi PLUS another player that fills a gap in CF, 2B or RP. I think he has more value than $8.5M x 2. I would pay $17M of his $34M in a trade that brings back great defensive CF'er who can hit over .725, a plus defensive 2Bman that can his over .750 or a very good set up man in the pen. I take those savings and instead of signing a pitcher for $40M/4 of $60M/5, I get a better one at $48M/4 or $78M/5. We'd be, in theory, upgrading Eovadli's slot and filling another high need area. Before Eovaldi's decent 2020 season, I might have said I'd hand him away at half the cost for a bag of balls, but I don't think I have said that since last winter. (I'm sure someone will correct me, if I am wrong.) Also, I've never been one to place value on any player based on just one season, and certainly not a 60 game season like Eovaldi just did well in.

I'll take our last 17 year's postseasons over any other team in MLB. Except for maybe combing STL & SFG, we're probably better than any other two teams combined. Checkmate!

It's very hard to build a contender without a few solid and durable pitchers in the rotation- not to mention a decent pen. Unless, we suddenly and magically start producing solid pitching from within our system, how do we become "contenders first?" I know Bloom is supposed to be the master of finding hidden gems and the Rays have a history of developing good pitchers in their system, but that takes a long time. I'm not saying your point is mistaken. I do think we can become playoff contenders without going large and long on one great pitcher, but unless Sale comes back to form, I doubt we win a ring without a true ace or two. Pedro & Schilling (+Lowe/Wake/Arroyo- all with 29+ GS'd) Schilling & Beckett (+Wake/Dice-K/Lester) Lester & Lackey (+Buch/Doubront/Dempster) Sale & Price (+ Porcello/ERod/Eovaldi)

A happy day for us all!