moonslav59

Again, CERA had no value at all, when comparing Vaz to a catcher on another team. That is why no stat geek uses it. It has very limited and specific value, when you compare how specific pitchers do, one by one, with catcher A v catcher B on their own team. Of course, other factors come into play, like maybe Price faced a mighty line-up when Vaz caught him vs when Leon did, but that can be said about any stat. The other big criticism is sample sizes, and it is a valid concern. Since several pitchers have one catcher catch them most of the time or even nearly all the time, many sample sizes comps are widely skewed. Also, some catchers catch much better pitchers than the other, so looking at just team CERA each year is near useless. Only when used correctly, and who does the research, can CERA have any meaning. Who does the reseacrh? I do, and I did. Here is what I found, in general, and I have studied this since the days of Varitek and Posada. 1. In cases where both catchers caught the same pitcher during the same year AND over several years for similar sample sizes, Vaz got less with nearly every single pitcher. Only ERod did slightly better with Vaz (career 3.98 v 4.05. 2. In cases where one catcher had a significantly smaller sample size than the other, the trend still showed Vaz got worse or much worse from each pitcher. 3. In cases where bot catchers has small sample sizes, the same was true. Maybe, each case, one-by-one, may look too small or unbalanced to make a determination, but when you look at all the comps- big and small- together and over 90% all show each pitcher does better or way, way, way better with the back-up catcher, something must be wrong with Vaz. Despite having more time with Vaz, they did better with Leon. Having near equal time- they did better with Leon. Having more time with Leon- they did better with Leon. Just about every single pitcher with somewhat significant sample sizes or more with both catcher did better with Vaz's back-up.

Agreed. I think Bloom sees a lot of talent in the Sox system, he'd like to keep around. Maybe he is willing to trade Devers, but I don't see it as part of some idea to put his stamp on this team. Also, Bloom did re-sign Moreland in Jan 2020. He chose to bring back a player from the previous era.

Even teams with "surplus" pitching don't usually look to trade it away, but they are more likely to part with one over teams looking to strengthen their staff. Teams looking to trade for Beni or Vaz will not likely give back good ML level talent, unless they are overloaded at a position we need. I know 3 team deals are rarer than a perfect game (OK, maybe not), but that type of trade makes more sense to me. A team like PIT wants young talent & prospects. They have a good catcher, a 2Bman (Frazier) they want to trade, who can also play OF and pitchers they seem willing to part with (Musgrove and/or Taillon). If we can get a 3rd team to give them prospects, we can get what we need from PIT and give Vaz and or Beni to that 3rd team. We can even add smaller pieces, if needed (like Chavis).

Unless we trade a top prospect for someone who has not reached prime age and has 4+ years of team control, I'm not really interested.

Another idea might be to trade Beni & Pivetta for someone better than Velazquez.

I'm not a huge Beni fan, but I agree. I think he'll hit fine in 2021. Maybe trading him at the deadline would bring back more.

Not if a catcher comes in return- like Stallings.

Not at all, and I've never said WAR is perfect. As I've said numerous times, I dislike how Vaz handles the staff, and the numbers show our pitchers (one by one) did way better with Leon than Vaz. Many of the sample sizes are small and even tiny, but when pitcher after pitcher after pitcher after pitcher almost all do much better with our back-up catcher, I believe there is reason for it. Even in 2020, with all small sample sizes, I looked at the 7 pitchers with the most PAs (70+ PAs) against with Vaz. Six of the 7 had better OPS against with Plawecki than with Vaz. The SSS all added up show a clear and present trend. It's not that I dislike Vaz, but I think his 2 years of team control and over-valued trade stock value make him the prime candidate for trade, despite us not having anyone to take his place. My trade suggestion involving us getting Stallings, addresses that issue, but signing someone like Mathis or Molina would too, and neither will cost much money.

Wong will never be a fine defensive catcher, IMO. Stallings already is, by what I've heard.

Stallings is a fine catcher: I like him more than Vaz, despite Vaz having twice his BTV rating. Plus, Vaz has just 2 years of team control remaining on a team looking at 2022 and beyond more than 2021. Stallings has 4 arb years remaining, counting 2021.

If we trade Beni, it seems obvious that Bloom has plans to fill the 2-3 open OF slots by opening day. I'm not one who thinks 2B is a top priority, but certainly we may sign a 2Bman. We could fill the 2B/ 4th OF'er role by signing someone who can play both (E Hernandez) or by trading for one. I agree: a solid SP'er and a Closer are our top 2 priorities, in terms of needing high-quality players, but OF may have a couple gaping holes, if Beni is dealt.

Depth= 5th or 6th starter.

I can see us trading Beni for a prospect and still being in the wild card race, assuming we spend around the tax limit line. If we trade Beni, it's not like Wilson or Chavis is our opening day 3rd OF'er.

I never thought of Vaz as being top 10. His defense and handling of the staff more than offsets his good (catcher) bat.

Here's another one: Beni & Chavis for Javier (SP), Pressly (RP) & Gurriel (1B) + $3M

The BTV site accepted this trade (not that I would do it): Vaz, Beni & Groome for Pressly, James and Whitley (We'd need to find a catcher, and Whitley is a prospect who sucked in 2019.) I like this 3 way deal better: To BOS: Taillon, Stallings, Pressly, Frazier To HOU: Vaz, Beni Ward To PIT: Whitley, Paredes, C Wong

I don't either. Plus, it's not like he sucked in the regular season and was post prime. Maybe they felt he'd hit better in the AL and Fenway Park. Maybe they thought about a somewhat overweight Papi's unspectacular numbers with the Twins before we got him.

Again, I'd be happy signing Kluber at a reasonable cost. I'm speaking about these one day showcase sessions.

I have no better ideas, and I guess watching him throw on one day is slightly better than not watching him at all, but being someone who pooh-poohs small sample sizes in actual game situations as much or more than anyone else, this seems kind of comical, to me. I guess, if he can't throw over 84, it would be telling, but if that was the case, he wouldn't be doing this.

Okay, now I unsurrender.

We don't know what prospect(s) may be offered. Getting a great prospect is not like being "cut,"and it does not mean "giving up" on anyone. It just means you value the return more than what you give back.

1) I never said ignore Beni's last 161 PAs. 2) I never said Hendricks was worth what he got. I've never been as high on Beni as many here. 110 IP by a RP'er is normally a solid 2 year amount of innings. Neither is a very large sample size but since you brought up the two, Hendricks faced 424 batters (or PAs) in his sample size, which is over 2.6 as large as Beni's. Beni's recent woes DOES worry me. I have argued his stock is as low as ever, but I don't think a player's value, as viewed by GMs, goes up and down as much as some seem to think it does based on 150-300 PA sample size or even larger. GMs know players have slumps- some season long. It wasn't that long ago- from the season opener in 2019 to Aug 16, 2019) that Beni had a stretch of an .839 OPS. That's a 506 PA sample size. Should his past 161 PAs really outweigh his previous 506 PAs> He's only 26. He had a .776 OPS over the last 2 years combined, and that dropped his stock. He's got a .791 OPS over the last 3 seasons. My guess is, most GMs see him as a .750 to .800 OPS kind of guy with potential to do much better and a worry that his latest downturn might be a longer term trend. I'd wait to trade him, because I think his stock is low, but maybe some GM does not view him as a big concern and will offer a nice return.

I like Kluber, and would like to see us sign him, if the price is not too high. My post was meant to criticize the throwing session not Kluber. If he hits 97, does it really mean much? If he's wild or shows pin point accuracy, should that really mean that much? One session. Non-game conditions?

So, a 161 PA stretch, which included the 52 PAs from an injury plagued shortened season is very significant? JBJ had had 2 of those stretches in one season- multiple times.

Got me. I surrender.