moonslav59

A .347 OBP is not bad, these days. (.341 career) .347 would have been second on the Sox behind a guy who is as good as gone (Bregman.) If you believe in clutch, he has led the league in RBI, before and has 126, this year. His .524 SLG blew all Sox players away. It was 60 points more than Bregman and 80 above Duran. He's more than just a HR hitter.

He hit 18 in 2015. He hit 4 in 2024 (half season) so about 8 pro-rated. That's an average of 13 per season from '24 to '25. He averages about 22 a year from '22-23. I'm okay with saying 16-20 or 17-22 thanks to Fenway.

The time has come for at least one "Large & Long" deal.

I'm not sure about the IL, but we do seem to be jinxed on the one and done SP'er deals, as well as the 2 year ones. Perez I Perez II Richards Paxton Kluber Wacha & Hill did okay but got hurt. Sandoval Buehler

Not IMO. Even if we signed Schwarber. To me, he's worth $5M x 2 years. We should be able to find a team that takes him at that cost- maybe $4M x 2. That would save us $4-5M on the budget. If we add 2 good hitting infielders, I'm fine with a Masa-Romy DH platoon. If we added Schwarber and traded Duran for Lodolo or K Marte, I'd be so-so to okay with a Masa-Ref LF platoon.

I meant Matz as $5M x 2 not $5M/2. If Matz wants to start, he'll have to go elsewhere. Word is teams are looking at Newcomb as a starter, and I ask why?

Looks about right. Criswell, Hicks and Moran are out of options, so probably all 3 start on the 26 man roster opening day (or IL.) I like Harrison and Dobbins and think one can and might win the 5 slot from Crawford, who could move to the pen. (Harrison & Dobbins may be in the pen, as well.) Early, Tolle and Perales are the big wild cards, and with all that talent, my guess is one will shine in '26 and win a key role somewhere on the 13 man staff. Another big boost could come from Slaten doubling his IP from 2025 and pitching like 2024 not 2025. I hate planning on hopes and promises, but every team does to some extent. I liked how you highlighted that just 6 pitchers are considered "core." That should be more like 8-9 on a highly competitive team. Having 15 decent choices to fill the other 7 slots is a nice thing to have, but if we have to trial and error it through 8 guys who stink up the place to find the right 7, we may be out of it before we know it. That also assumes the core 6 stay healthy. This team needed depth for many years and we have it, now. It is time to move from quantity to quality, while keeping just enough depth. That is not easy to plan, and we saw how trading Priester, last season blew up in our faces.

Assuming we have $21M to line 1 and $41M to line 2 ($61M to avoid dropping our draft pick down 10 slots.) here are some ideas: $21M and no more: Trade Duran for Lodolo (saves $3.2M,) trade Campbell, Tolle, Harrison and Hicks for K Marte (adds $9.2M) and sign Refsnyder ($4M/1) and Matz ($5M x 2) $41M: Same two trades (adds $6M) and sign Alonso at $30M x 5 and Matz at $5M x 2. $61M: Same two trades (adds $6M) and sign Alonso at $30M and Schwarber at $25M (extra year)

Word is the O's are looking to spend bigly. Just what we need- an even tougher division!

We need 2 of those 4 (not Realmuto.) I was listening to Merloni, who was saying the Sox see players differently than the fans. They may see Realmuto as a decent middle order bat, just like they see Gray as a solid #1-2 SP'er. They look at numbers we don't. "They are poor at communicating what they think." I'd add K Marte to the list over Realmuto. 1. K Marte 2. Schwarber 3. Alonso T4. Bregman, Okamoto, Bichett (maybe Polanco, if we want to go cheaper)

Technically, he's not on their roster.

Even if we discount 2025 as a blip or unlucky ERA/ERA+, his 2024-2025 ERA+ is 101. That's a number 3. Other indicators show he's better than a 3 and hardly any other key numbers indicate a low 3 or worse. He's 20th in fWAR in 2025. That's a number one, if you call 1-30 number 1's, 31-60 number 2's and so on... He's 12th in K-BB%. That's a number 1. He's 12th in xFIP and 21st in FIP- both a number 1 category. His .329 BAbip indicates some bad luck and was bottom 7 in MLB. He was bottom 3rd in hard hit% and LD%, so maybe it was not so much bad luck. I think if you look at the totality of all these stats, one can say he's about a number 2, or at worst a top number 3. Some might argue he's a borderline 1-2 starter. His age of 36 does not hint that he will improve, but he does seem to be aging well. 116 ERA+ age 31-35 (117 at age 30-35) 115 ERA+ age 24-29 Call him a 3, okay. Call him a 2, fine. He has not been a 4, but at his age, he may be more likely a 3-4 than a 2-3. We'll see,

I think Cease is better than his 2025 ERA showed. Bassitt is probably worse than his ERA showed, but I don't see it as a major gain by TOR. I see Gray as a major upgrade over Buehler, but sadly, he is replacing Gio not Buehler.

Depends on how much TEX offers to pay.

Offense Lost from 2025: Certainly not "addition by subtraction as a whole) .821 Bregman (495 PAs) .905 Devers (334 PAs) .659 Toro (284) .838 Ref (209) .790 Lowe (119) .354 Sabol (18) .000 A Sanchez (2) That's 1038 PAs from Breggie, Devers and Ref (all over .821 and maybe combined to about .860ish) Add Lowe and we're at 1157 PAs near .850. That's about two FT bats. Total in Toro and scrubs and we're at 1460+ PAs at over .810 or so. That's more than 2 FT'ers. We will be adding a bat or two, and maybe even a name or two from the list above (Breg & Ref?) but we should also see more PAs from... 303 to 653? Anthony .859 +300 417 to 567? Abreu .786 +150 205 to 455? Yoshida .696 +250 136 to 436? Mayer .674 +300 That's 1,100 more PAs 112 to ??? Casas .580 Maybe less from Story, Narvaez & DHam?

Every year, I do this, and I'm not sure why. It means very little, but it does seem kinda interesting. Players lost: (More pitchers that I expected) 3.41 Giolito (145 IP/55 ER) 5.45 Buehler (112.1/68) 3.15 Bernardino (51.2/18) 3.35 Wilson (48.1/18) 5.00 Fitts (45/25) 8.04 Houck (43.2/39) 3.95 Newcomb (41/18) 3.12 Murphy (34.2/12) 5.40 May (28.1/17) 2.08 Matz (21.2/5) 4.15 Guerrero (17.1/8) 3.31 Alcala (16.1/11) 6.59 Hendriks (13.2/10) 3.86 Wink (11.2/5) 20.1 IP/19 ERs Campbell (still here), Burdi, Fulmer, Stock, Eaton & Toro Total: 601 IP (over 41% of all IP in 2025!) 328 ERs 4.91 ERA Added: 4.28 S Gray (181 IP) Sandlin, Uberstine & Drohan Expect more IP from: 0 to 150+? Crawford (4.36 in 184 in '24) 0-140+? Sandoval (4.11 in 145 in '23) 61 to 101+? Dobbins (4.13 in 61 in '25) 19 to 119+??? Early (2.33 in 19 in '25) 16 to 86+ ???Tolle (6.06 in 16 in '25) 12 to 82+? Harrison (3.00 in 12 in '25/ 4.04 including w SFG) 34 to 54+ ?Slaten (4.24 in 34 in '25/ 2.93 in 55 in '24) That's 600 IP added before these two: Moran (6.75) & Hicks (8.20)

He's a bottom 5 defender and should DH, but we need power. Welcome to Boston, Pete!

Maybe, and if some is differed, maybe the AAV can get near $30M. Or, just make it $240/8. I am not for paying that much for a 14-18 HR guy, who should not play SS.

They replaced 3.96 Bassitt with 4.55 Cease. Granted, Cease is better than Bassitt, especially as projected going forward, but he has to beat Bassitt's 3.96 to be an improvement. Baassitt has also had a solid 5 year run: 3.15 in 27 GS in '21 3.42 in 30 GS '22 3.60 in 33 '23 (led league in wins) 4.16 in 31 '24 3.96 in 31 '25 Now, they need to replace Bichette, while paying for Guerrero, Cease and Springer. Let's see what they do the rest of the winter.

He also thinks a weak arm is okay from the CF triangle. Where is the fact sheet on that claim?

They won't. They might take Hicks and give us a little cash, but I'm not taking on any cash to get a guy I wouldn't be playing. At least Masa can and likely will be our starting DH.

I have been under the impression that a team's draft choice drops 10 slots, if it goes over the tax by $20M. It is actually the $40M line- not the $40M. I'm not sure that is enough to get JH to spend $39M over the line, but if he does, then we are at a winter limit of $60M. That is close enough to get 2 big FAs or maybe 3, if we trade away some salary or trade for cheaper players. I think BTV would call Duran & Campbell a gross overpay for Ket Marte, but the tax hit on a trade like that would be just about $4.5M. (Better than that if Duran gets arb raises in the next 2 seasons after 2026.) Maybe we trade away more of our younger players, and teams are dying for decent pitchers: we have 12+ SP'ers on our 40. Maybe we spend the $60M on maxing it out on just 2 players: Alonso and Bregman or Alonso and Bichette. I know that is highly doubtful, especially if we have K Marte. Adding 3 infielders would allow us to trade the big injury question mark, Mayer. Maybe something as stunning as this: Mayer, Hicks and Harrison for K Marte. ($9M on tax line.) Duran for Lodolo (Saves $3M on tax line) Sign Alonso & Bichette or Bregman for 3B 1. L Anthony LF 2. S K Marte 2B 3. R Bregman/Bichette 3B 4. R Alonso 1B 5. L Abreu RF 6. R Story SS 7. L Masas/R Romy DH 8. R Narvaez C 9. R Rafaela CF Bench: Wong, Romy, DHam & Garcia/Campbell SP: Crochet, Lodolo, Gray, Bello, Sandoval/Crawford/Dobbins RP: Chapman, Whitlock. Slaten, Weissert, Criswell, Moran, Crawford/Dobbins/Tolle/Early/Kelly/Perales/Sandlin/Uberstine/Drohan

While I agree, his ERA, ERA+ and ERA- are all just below the league average and league SP'er average ERA numbers. I've never used those stats as the be all- end all, but they are significant indicators of mediocrity. Then, he's 36.

I'm not happy with thinking he meets the solid #2SP'er role, either. That was an essential priority in my mind. Yes, he was technically below average in ERA, and ERA, ERA+ and ERA- are all good measures of a SP'er's skill level. I'm not saying you are wrong. He does have other measures that say he did better than his ERA indicated, but I see that as maybe bringing him from a mid 3 SP'er to maybe a high 3 or low 2, at best. Some see him as a 4/5, and I think you started off saying that. Again, I get your position and understand your frustration with these continued one and done deals based more on hopes or promises than actual recent success. I'm afraid this is it with the rotation, unless something drops in our laps, or we deal 2-3 pitchers to upgrade our offense, and then add another SP'er. (Doubtful.)

Maybe the another good part of getting Bichette and KMarte is we don't have to worry about the next Mayer injury. (I'm assuming MM would be part of the KMarte deal, if not mostly all of it. I think Mayer+ Harrison gets it done on BTV, or maybe Mayer & Garcia.)