moonslav59
-
Posts
103,876 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
128
Content Type
Profiles
Boston Red Sox Videos
2026 Boston Red Sox Top Prospects Ranking
Boston Red Sox Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
Guides & Resources
2025 Boston Red Sox Draft Pick Tracker
News
2026 Boston Red Sox Draft Pick Tracker
Forums
Blogs
Events
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by moonslav59
-
So, that's why Franchy has been a no-show?
-
A better way to look at the massive overhaul of the IP load from 2020 to 2021 is like this: 2020 Pitchers (prorated IP) that will pitch ZERO IP (or close to zero) in 2021: 115 Weber 79 Mazza 75 Godley 52 Springs 38 Osich 36 Covey 36 Kickham 33 Stock 25 Hembree 24 Hall 21 Triggs Pitchers with significant drop off in IP projected: 81 Valdez 67 Brewer 33 Walden 28 Hart Pitchers with about the same IP in 2021 as their prorated IP in 2020: 147 Perez 125 Eovaldi 65 Brasier 60 Barnes 50 Brice (hopefully much less) Pitchers with more IP projected for the Sox than in 2020 43 Houck to 111 26 Pivetta to 95 22 DHern to 42 (I could see much more) 20 Taylor to 35 0 ERod to 152 0 Sale to 84 0 Richards to 122 0 Ottavino to 64 0 Andriese to 60 0 Seabold to 37 0 Whitlock to 12 0 Schreiber to 10 To simplify, maybe... SP Richards + Sale give us 200 IP ERod +160 Pivetta + Houck +160 combined from pro-rated 2020 numbers RP +60 Ottavino +60 DHern + Taylor from 2020 +60 Andriese
-
If anybody cannot see the chance for a vast improvement from our pitching staff over 2020, please speak up, now. Here are the fangraphs projected IP vs 2020's prorated IP (2020 IP x 2.7): IP 2020 Pitcher 2021 147 Perez 161 (+14) 125 Eovaldi 149 (+24) 115 Weber > ERod 152 (+37) 81 Valdez 28 (-53) 79 Mazza> Richards 122 (+43) 75 Godley> Sale 84 (+9) 67 Brewer 24 (-43) 65 Brasier 56 (-9) 60 Barnes 65 (+5) 52 Springs> Ottavino 64 (+12) 50 Brice 55 (+5) 43 Houck 111 (+68) 38 Osich >Andriese 60 (+22) 36 Covey> Seabold 37 (+1) 36 Kickham> Whitlock 16 (-20) 33 Stock> Schreiber 10 (-23) 33 Walden 16 (-17) 28 Hart> Gossett 9 (-19) 26 Pivetta 95 (+79) 25 Hembree> McCarthy 6 (-19) 24 Hall> Feltman 5 (-19) 22 DHern 42 (+20) 21 Triggs> Bazardo 3 (-18) 20 Taylor 35 (+15)
-
Yes, very doable but maybe not such a bad thing, if others are close behind.
-
Who should the Sox have play CF on opening day?
moonslav59 replied to mvp 78's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I wonder how much the Brewers would pay of Cain’s salary, plus maybe throwing in a prospect. -
Many Sox players were really hitting well from game 30 to 60. An even smaller sample size but not much less significant.
-
I doubt Perez leads the team in IP again, but it could happen. These guys should see zero or much fewer IP in 2021. Addition by subtraction: 3 Weber 4 Valdez 5 Mazza 6 Godley 7 Brewer 10 Springs 11 Brice 13 Osich 14 Covey 15 Kickham 16 stock 17 Walden 18 Hart For some context, Hart had 2% of the team’s IP. Prorated to a full season, he would have had 28 IP. 13 out of the top 18 IP guys pretty much replaced by Richards, ERod, Ottavino, Sale and more from Houck, Pivetta, Barnes, DHern, Brasier, Sawamura and Andriese-Whitlock
-
The prorated number would be about 23-24 games.
-
Key word “just.”
-
Lol!
-
How can you say "at this juncture" when Judge is 4 years older and was still in the minors when Devers had already gotten 1680 MLB PAs? It's apples to oranges before we even talk about comparing health issues. Comparing Judge to JD makes more sense, if you have to do so.
-
That seems more like it. Give him a big signing bonus like Tatis got. That goes a long way.
-
If Devers ends up sucking on D at 3B, this year, one of the more likely moves would be to flip Dalbec to 3B and Devers to 1B, and not move Bogey off the SS position. If, and this is a big if, Chavis rebounds, he, too,could play 3B. Bogey is not moving off SS. From a guy who loves SS defense, even I'm not for moving him off SS.
-
I haven't heard one person say move Bogey to 3B, this season. What would we do, have Arroyo or Arauz play SS? As much as I'm not a big fan of Bogey's D, he's a huge overall plus, and I would not mess with him. Now, if Devers sucks on D in 2021, and we acquire a good defensive SS, next winter, maybe we can talk. (Yes, that would force a Bogey opt out after 2022.)
-
There is a risk, and Pablo did implode while in his "prime." You picked the worst comp, which is understandable from a non Sox fan, but there are plenty of comps where an .830 hitter ar age 24, with almost 1700 ML PAs under his belt, have gone on to do better and even great things. Baseball Reference compares him to Scott Rolen at age 23. I don't see Pablos name in the top 10 list.
-
Why should he get worse after age 24? His .830 career OPs, put together at ages 20-23, blows the league average away at 1B and even more so at 3B. The question is, will he be significantly better than .830 for a few years, as he moves through his prime years? It is a gamble, but I'm expecting a big improvement over the next few years. The kid came up raw as raw can be, and he still did very well. He seems to have smoothed out some of the rough edges, but he's a pure hitter. I'd extend him to more than 6 years $150.
-
Take into account that Devers was the youngest player at every level he played. Then, take a look at the league average OPS at 1B, and tell us again why Devers, who is only 24, can't "stand up" to other MLB 1Bmen. .815 2017 (Devers .819) .760 2018 (Devers .731) .789 2019 (Devers .916) .774 2020 (Devers .793) Devers career: .830 and is only 24. I appreciate getting a different perspective from non Sox fans, but sometimes you are far from objective.
-
RF is a monster position in Fenway. Renfroe might be okay, but it helps to be plus out there for half our games.
-
MLBTR on the Sox... https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/02/red-sox-notes-bloom-martinez-chavis.html
-
Maybe a .500 team?
-
Okay, Vaz will probably be slotted ahead of EHern- maybe 8th or 7th- not 5th.
-
Good point. We don't know, for sure. He may start out as our FT CF'er until he proves he can't hit lefties or shows he can. I checked out his minor league splits, and you have to go back to 2017 to find a significant sample size v LHPs: AAA .717 in 97 ABs (1.054 v RHPs in 293 ABs) in AA (2016) .833 v L (64 ABs) .834 v R (181) A+ (2016) .939 v L (59) .744 v R (238) A (2015) .623 v L (99) .592 v R (382) These numbers are more encouraging than his small MLB sample size v LHPs.
-
Define "good year." Devers came up at age 20. He hit .819 that year. Yes, just 240 PAs, but still a "good year." His .731 sophomore year was not good- not bad, but not good. 2019 was excellent (.916). 2020 was "good" (.793). He's had a "good year" 3 out of 4 seasons, and he's barely 24. ____________________________ Judge came up at age 24. Devers hasn't even played his age 24 season, yet. He's had 4 good to excellent years after his first 27 game season. He's played over 112 games, once and turns 29, soon. ____________________________ Comparing the two seems rather pointless, given their ages and vastly different strengths and weaknesses.
-
Vaz will not hit 5th. Book it. Renfroe/Cordero & Dalbec will all hit above him. (Not Cordero v LHPs) The thing many miss on Dalbec is his OBP. Guys like Chavis & Middy never had that. Guys who K a lot and hit homers are a dime a dozen, but the ones with high OBP's are keepers. Can pitchers learn how to get Dalbec out to the point where he flounders? Sure, but don't bet on it. I could see putting Vaz ahead of EHern, and if Arroyo is in the line-up, him too. I think you and others either vastly under rate the Sox bottom of the order, or you haven't looked at the line-up of the worst 20 offenses in MLB. The Sox will have a better than average OPS from the 5-9 or 6-9 hitters. Better than the Yanks or Jays? Probably not, but that doesn't make them awful.
-
MLBTR Chat line predicted Odorizzi to the Jays for $20M/2 with vesting option and JBJ to HOU for $20M/2.
