moonslav59

I can see carrying 14 pitchers, if the plan was to never use Whitlock, except maybe a few innings here and there in blow-outs, but once we found out that ain't happening, the need for 14 vanished.

That is a good point, but the thing is, they haven't done that. Most of our best RP'ers have gone about 10-11 innings and we are 1/7th through the season translates to 70+ IP- not the usual 60-65 IP. We've had a few days off and now have 2 in 8 days and 3 in something like 18 days. I could see if our starters were lasting 2-3 innings, then I'd call up the 14th guy quickly, but we've haven't come close to needing 14. To me, we have had several times where a PH'er or defensive replacement would have been very helpful.

You used to add Valdez to that list. With so many April days off, the 27th man rule for DHRs, and the ability to call a pitcher up in a matter of hours, made the 14th pitcher unneccesary.

Bottom line: long relievers save others from having to pitch- sometimes 3-4 others. He's second in relief IP. It's the same a saying SP'ers who go long into games save the pen, despite only pitching every 5 days. When has the 14th pitcher ever come into play? When have we had a time where we were even down to only 2-3 guys to choose from, and if we were, we knew ahead of time, so we could have brought a pitcher up, like we did on the DBL header games- where we get a 27th man, anyway. The only advantage I see with 14 pitchers is that it allows Cora a wider range of pitchers to choose one who is most likely to be successful. That is significant, but so is having a PH'er for a .490 batter or a late inning defensive replacement for anyone of about 3 or 4 bad to awful defenders.

That 2018 team was so great, we probably could have won without any 1-2 players, but yes, those were great under-the-radar trades. Extending both might have been mistakes. The Schilling trade was also a good one. I loved the Nomar deal. We ended up getting Ellsbury and Lowrie as comp picks for OCab. Later, we got Melancon for Lowrie and Holt for Melancon. We also got Kopech as comp for Ellsbury, and he helped bring us Sale.

I'm loving this team and have always been Cora's biggest supporter. I'm loving what Bloom has done. He's building a team for the future while constructing a very exciting team to watch that was supposed to be a "bridge" to 2022 and beyond. This team can win- no doubt, but we still have some mega weak areas. The good thing is, so does everyone else in the AL.

We are about 1/7th of the way through the season, and let's see how many players are clearly over-achieving and may realistically be expected to regress to the norm: 1.199 JD- The guy did hit 1.066 in '17 and 1.031 in '18, so although this is 130-160 points higher than those seasons, it's not really a gross over-achievement, thus far. .975 Bogey- He's in peak prime and hit .939 in '19. No surprise, here. He could even end up higher. .908 Verdugo- He's still nearing peak prime and has been on the rise every season from his rookie year. Some may find a jump from .844 in '20 to .908 extreme, but not me. .907 Devers- Call me biased, but I have been projecting a monster year by Devers at some point between ages 25-29, maybe more than just one season. He hit .917 in '19, so it should not shock anyone, if he ends up over 1.000. .771 Arroyo- Maybe the best candidate beyond JD for "regression," but the guy did hit .736, last year, so this isn't really surprising. .727 Kike- Pretty much what should have been expected. (I expected better CF defense, but that's me.) He hit .744 from '17-'20,so maybe we can expect better? .692 Vaz- Vaz had a .798 OPS from '19-'20. This is a disappointment. I expect an improvement, here. He did hit .540 in '18,so who knows? .677 Marwin- The "trash can season" has made it difficult to judge his highest upside, but he did hit over .733 in both '18 & '19. Once could expect an improvement, even in a season where hitting is down. .646 Dalbec- Hard to know what this kid can and will do. I love his ability to get on base- not just his power, but he has struggled out of the gate. I'd like to think he's better than a coin flip, but we do have Marwin, Chavis and maybe even Ockimey/Casas in the wings. .510 Cordero- No way anyone can project his future. He's certainly shown better than this, but his sample sizes are so scattered, it's impossible to much of anything. .496 Renfroe- This guy has killed lefties for years. He really shouldn't play much once a righty comes in, but with a limited bench, he has been forced to play beyond his means. He's actually over .740 vs lefties, this year, so maybe, if we start using Marwin and Kike in the OF more often, we can get him into a platoon routine. .471 Plawecki- The guy hit .708 from '17-'20, a very respectable number for a back-up catcher, these days. So, these guys have sucked on D and not been good at base running. Can anyone honestly look at the totality of this group and say they have been overachieving, so far? Now, the pitching is another story. I'll do a data dive on them, first thing in the morning, but again, you might be surprised how unsurprising some of our pitching overachievers really are.

Oh, I'm loving this! I did not project a 90 loss team, like someone did, here. I thought we could compete for a WC, if nearly everything went right. I also pointed out the rest of the AL had massive holes and question marks, too. What is surprising is that only JD is way above some of the numbers he put up recently. ERod, Bogey, Devers and Verdugo are not really doing anything shocking. Maybe, Eovaldi is, but we paid the guy $17M x 4 in hopes he could put together a good full season or two. Okay, Barnes is surprising many of us, but the guy had better numbers than many want to admit, before this year. Whitlock is a gem in the rough. Arroyo is playing better than expected, but this is no way like 2013's over-achieving team. Look at how many batters are hitting way below their career norms or expectations: Renfroe, Cordero, Plawecki and to some extent Kike, Marwin & Dalbec. Richards, Perez, Taylor and Brice have not done well.

We certainly could surprise, some more. We have 4-5 guys hitting horrifically, right now, and how good could we be, if they just hit their career norms? Then, there's Sale's return and maybe something from Houck, when we bring him up for his buck-twenty innings. Chances are we won't keep up this pace, but I'm not giving up my optimism. That doesn't hide the fact that our defense sucks. Our base running sucks. 2 or 3 of our starters have bad numbers or indicators their ERA is much better than it should be. Our pen has done very well and was expected to suck. Let's see what happens.

Your offense should improve, but there are serious questions about it being top 4 or 5, as many projected. Major injuries haven't really started,except at 1B. Your D and base running was known to suck in March, but maybe it was glossed over by all the hype directed at the offense and pen and the phantom depth.

Sounds like the Sox, too.

Their pumped up tremendous depth was all a mirage. (They had to go out and get Odor, and he was in the clean up slot, yesterday.)

Weird how no Yankee fan thought these weaknesses were all that dominating back in March.

The worst part is, our worst 3 hitters in the line-up are also defensively challenged. Maybe the late inning defensive replacement is the better route, and who knows, maybe they outhit the ones they replace. (Like Marisnick- the guy I wanted all winter long.)

Now, that's how you beat....errr....I mean....lose to the O's!

We won the Betts trade, too. The Shaw trade only looked good for the Brewers for 1.5 years. The Sale trade was great, but behind these... To me, the best 3 Sox trades are: Pedro for Carl Pavano & Tony Armas Jr. The Dodger dump (not the Price one) Derek Lowe & Jason Varitek for Heathcliff Slcobumb,

I'd love to have a decent PH'er and late inning defensive replacement or two...

Well, he's got 90 PAs, this season at lead off, and 380 career, so exactly 290. Career: 443 7th .672 OPS 380 1st .774 377 8th .772 201 2nd .793 197 6th .771 179 5th .756 (Before this year, the first slot was his 3rd most common batting slot. Looks like 1st and second are his best slots. (That's not the same as saying it's good enough to lead off for a winning team.) Note: he has a .960 OPS as the first batter of the game.

He is second on the team in RP'er innings. He has saved 2-3 pitchers from needing to pitch in the games he pitches. He's a reason we need 12 not 13, and certainly not 14.

Sorry, I didn't look back far enough.

It won't affect options. Waiting periods are not all that problematic, and the worst thing that could happen is we get stuck with 14 pitchers for 10 days. (Or, you send a different pitcher down after the need goes away.) So far, we haven't really come close to needing even 13 pitchers. We got posters screaming we need to use Whitlock more!

When you have 3 guys hitting under .500 and one of the worst defensive Sox teams in memory, it's nice to have some late inning choices. There will never be a day where we suddenly need the 14th pitcher. We will always know a day or two ahead of that time, and can call someone up, if needed. It seems very simple, to me.

...and Jonathan India.

I've felt this way, all along. We can call up a pitcher in a matter of hours, if needed.

I'm super high on Dalbec, and I'm not for a platoon, now, but the idea of bringing up Ockimey to give Dalbec a break, here and there, may have some merit, if things continue like this. (My guess is Chavis, Santana or Duran would be called up before Ockimey.)