moonslav59

OPS from 2018-2020 (200+ PAs): .938 JD .907 Bogey .832 Devers .812 Verdugo .772 Renfroe .754 Cordero .749 Hernandez .733 Munoz .728 Chavis .727 Vaz .719 Arroyo 2019-2020 (60+ PAs): .959 Dalbec .921 Bogey .884 Devers .870 JD .827 Verdugo .798 Vaz .773 Cordero .749 Renfroe .728 Chavis .710 Arroyo .707 EHern .707 Plawecki .692 Munoz

I know the studies show you don't put your best hitter 3rd, but aren't Bogey and Verdugo thought to be better than Devers? (I happen to think Devers will bust out in 2021, but based on 2020, he's maybe our 3rd best hitter. Based on 2018-2019, JD could be ranked higher. How's this: 1. Verdugo RF 2. Bogey SS 3. JD DH 4. Devers 3B 5. Renfroe/Cordero LF 6. Dalbec 1B 7. EHern CF 8. Vaz C 9. Arroyo/Chavis 2B

Spend whatever it takes to try and win every year. Good thing every team doesn't do that. Ticket prices would be $1,000 for a nosebleed seat.

I never said that was your intent or anybodies intent. Feel free to keep blaming Henry for not spending. It looks silly, to me, and my intent was to let you know my opinion. I never expected to change yours.

I'm sure Bloom & Co. are eyeing some possible additions from next winter's market, but to me, it was also about how weak this winter's market was, especially in our highest need areas. SP: Only Bauer was a true difference maker. Does he look any better than Price did, when we signed him? CF: Springer just did not seem like the type of guy to go large and long on. Maybe, I'm wrong. RP: There were a few nice names, but not anyone that knocks me over, and besides, spending large on RP'ers does not always guarantee success. We didn't need Realmutto. Are the next two years any better? from MLB.com Notable free agents for 2021-22 Catcher: Salvador Perez, Travis d'Arnaud, Christian Vazquez (club option), Buster Posey (club option) First base: Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Brandon Belt Second base: Starlin Castro Third base: Nolan Arenado (opt-out), Kris Bryant, Eduardo Escobar, Kyle Seager (club option), José Ramírez (club option) Shortstop: Francisco Lindor, Javier Báez, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story Outfield: Michael Conforto, Tommy Pham, Starling Marte, Kyle Schwarber, Eddie Rosario, Corey Dickerson, Nick Castellanos (opt-out), Charlie Blackmon (player option), Andrew McCutchen (club option) Designated hitter: Jorge Soler, Khris Davis, J.D. Martinez (opt-out) Starting pitchers: Noah Syndergaard, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Lance Lynn, Eduardo Rodriguez, Dylan Bundy, Lance McCullers Jr., Johnny Cueto (club option), Carlos Martínez (club option) Relievers: Kenley Jansen, Jeurys Familia, Corey Knebel, Archie Bradley, Raisel Iglesias, Adam Ottavino If all the players in line for free agency in the 2021-22 offseason actually reach the open market, it might be one of the best classes ever. Start with the shortstops … wow. Lindor, Báez, Correa, Seager and Story are five of the brightest young stars in the game today. All five of them would be free agents in their primes -- Correa will be 27 in 2022, Lindor and Seager 28, and Báez and Story 29. In addition to Báez, the Cubs could see Bryant, Rizzo and Schwarber all reach free agency. On top of all that, there's the Braves' Freeman, who's been one of the top first basemen in the NL for years. And if Arenado opts out of his Rockies deal, there's another big name right there. The starting-pitcher class is also a star-studded group, though Syndergaard missed all of 2020 following Tommy John surgery, and Verlander is expected to be out through '21 after undergoing the same procedure. Notable free agents for 2022-23 Catcher: Willson Contreras, Gary Sánchez, Christian Vazquez First base: José Abreu, Yuli Gurriel, Josh Bell, Miguel Sanó (club option), Max Muncy (club option) Second base: Ketel Marte (club option) Third base: Evan Longoria (club option), José Ramírez (club option) Shortstop: Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, Miguel Rojas, Tim Anderson (club option) Outfield: Aaron Judge, Joey Gallo, Byron Buxton, Brandon Nimmo, Andrew Benintendi, Andrew McCutchen, Lorenzo Cain, Adam Duvall, Justin Upton, Wil Myers (club option), Charlie Blackmon (player option), A.J. Pollock (player option), Kevin Kiermaier (club option), Whit Merrifield (club option), Designated hitter: J.D. Martinez Starting pitchers: Jacob deGrom (opt-out), Chris Sale (opt-out), Aaron Nola (club option), Sonny Gray (club option), Mike Clevinger, José Berríos, Sean Manaea, Luis Severino (club option), Carlos Martínez (club option), Nathan Eovaldi, Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd, Michael Fulmer, Joe Musgrove, Zach Eflin, Johnny Cueto Relievers: Aroldis Chapman, Edwin Díaz, Zack Britton, Ryan Pressly, Seth Lugo, Taylor Rogers, Chad Green, Craig Kimbrel, Will Smith (club option)

Dissing Henry is not winning me over in any way, shape or form. We have the best owner we've ever had, by far. He's reset the tax several times- almost like clockwork, and the system has been a huge success. To be frank, this whole"Gimmie, gimmie, gimmie and gimmie now," philosophy turns me off. We are not the Dodgers, and although Henry could choose to spend like them, who has more rings?

Nice research. Makes you want to go regular player, or at least "best available," but finding an ace is worth more than finding a stud regular player, IMO. I wonder what just the top 4 picks would reveal. One other nice thing about this draft is that we pick 4th in every round.

That's the hardest choice a GM has to make. The Rays seem to get it right, nearly everytime.

With all the one and two year deals signed since Bloom took over, we will have a heck of a lot more spending flexibility than just Pedey coming off the books. (Remember, teams mya be more likely to spend large and long, when they know a lot of money comes off the books the following winter, too- like Price & JD- both gave us nothing in 2020.) Off the books next winter: $$$ 13.8 Pedey 2.8 Beni 10.0 Richards (option) 8.9 Ottavino 8.8 ERod 4.6 Vaz (option) 4.5 Barnes 4.5 Perez(option) 3.0 Gonzalez (ABOUT $60M! Plus, maybe we go over the tax line by $19M, so maybe $79M!) Off the books after 2022: 16.0 Price 22.0 JD 20.0 Bogey (opt out) 17.0 Eovaldi 7.0 EHern 1.9 Andriese 1.6 Plawecki 1.5 Sawamura That's another $85M off the books, with only Bogey's name jumping out loudly. There is a real potential for serious improvements next winter and the one afterwards. While replacing guys like Bogey, ERod and maybe a couple more on the list above will be difficult. there is so much sunken cost being lost, that it seems like we can keep who we want or replace them with equal players PLUS add some serious signees. Teams that spend near or over the Lux tax line do not stay non contenders for all that long, unless they have several sunken larger & long contracts on the books. We will be playoff contenders or close to it, this year. We will spend way more than this winter, next winter. Sure, we may spend poorly, like Ben did with HRam and Pablo, but expecting that is not reasonable.

Sale was the best pitcher in the AL. It was a risk, but I was on board, too. I also think DD went farther than he needed to, but in baseball, nothing is guaranteed. You, being a strong advocate of the "crap shoot" playoff philosophy, might think overkill is needed to give us optimal chances at winning a ring between 2016-2019 or even 2020. As long as we got our ring, and 2018 was a magical season, I have no beef with DD. The drop off is what it is. It was expected and worth it. I like what Bloom has done, so far, but the real test will come when he spends big. That's what sunk Ben, and to a lesser extent, DD.

Yes, and they may have even seen 2020 as a year to compete, with the reset coming in 2021. We just lost Kimbrel & Kelly, who both had struggles in 2018. We added Eovaldi & Pearce for the full season, which was supposed to make up for some of the pen loss. The way Kimbrel & Kelly pitched in 2019, I'm glad we let them walk.

I'm not sure what this has to do with my point. Reset (again) in 2021 or reset in 2024? Which year will we have a better chance at winning it all, in theory?

Well said.

Exactly, and rightfully so. Next winter we move the team into serious contender mode.

So, Fenway is 2nd or 3rd worst, even now?

I've answered this before. The sooner we go over- the sooner we will have to reset. I am thinking our chances of winning in 3, 4 or 5 years will be better than 2020's chances, so staying under now, buys one more year before the next reset- in theory. I realize the whole system could change next year, but it appears the Sox are thinking they want to stay under, this winter. I'm guessing their long term plans out weigh the short term ones, at this moment in time. I hoping that changes, next winter. I'm pretty confident it will.

If we signed Odorizzi, someone like Pivetta or Houck would bolster the pen. Some even suggested making Eovaldi the closer. Adding pitching always helps. Maybe GMs saw something in Odorizzi's 2020 season that scared them away. They don't always shy away from someone over one bad 60 game stretch.

Seems strange, when everyone needs pitching.

The trend seems to be to put one of your best hitters up first, unless they are very slow. I agree that Verdugo is a better choice than EHern. Plus, EH's OBP is not as good as I thought. His power drives his OPS.

Agree, and it's a better defensive alignment.

Yup. No way Sale would have come back in just 60 days, even if he felt ready.

Makes me wonder why either will last to the 4th pick.

Especially at SS and CF.

True. Next step: keep quantity while working on quality. Winter 2021-2022 is the key. This draft is important, too. Improving our IFA signings, as well.

Fenway is better, now, but it was a minefield back in Fred's day. They put padding on the CF wall after he broke his back slamming against it to make a catch. It is still one of the most unsafe OF's in MLB.