moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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The Jays certainly improved, and they have a bunch of young players who should only improve, but as we have seen with many young players, they do not always follow a bell curve. BTW, the Sox have a bunch of players approaching prime, who could also improve or even have monster years. Plus, we have a few in the meat of prime. Only JD is past prime, but not by so much that he can't still have a big year or two left in him. Devers is 24. (.916 in 2019) Verdugo is 24. (.817 in 2019 and .844 in 2020.) Dalbec is 25. (.959 in 2020 small sample/ .816 in minors 2019) Arroyo & Chavis are 25. Cordero is 26. (.754 since 2019) Prime: Bogey is 28. (.939 in 2019/.921 '19-'20/.907 '18-'20) Renfroe is 28. (.805 in 2018) EHern is 28. (.836 in 2015/ .806 in '18) Vaz is 30. (.798 from 2019-2020) I'm not saying everyone will match their most recent high numbers, but they have all shown they CAN do well, except for Cordero & Dalbec with small sample sizes. Plus, JD is 33. (.938 since joining the Sox.
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Vaz has hit about .798 since 2019- a rather large sample size. He will likely be out 8th hitter, maybe even 9th. How many teams get .798 in the slot? A Renfroe (.907)-Cordero (.786) platoons looks very promising, but largely unknown. Kike between .730 and .740 is above average for a 7-9 hitter. Dalbec is a big if, but very promising.
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Based on what? The kid was given 10 games at 3B before being thrown in at 3B in 2013. He played 53 games at 3B his whole career- mostly the first games of his career. Judging him by that sample size is pretty sketchy. (I'm fine with Devers at 3B.)
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You sure know how to seek out each Sox player's biggest weakness and act like that's all there is to that player. So what, if Renfroe K's a lot. He's stuck around MLB long enough to prove he belongs. He hits about 40 Hrs and 30 doubles per 650 PAs. He has great splits vs LHPs and has been over .700 vs RHPs. True, Cordero is a huge question mark. Who knows what we get with him? As for Kike, his 2018 "outlier" season was not his best, so maybe a little more research might help. He had an .801 OPS from 2014-2015 (352 PAs) and he had a .752 OPS from 2017-2019 (1113 PAs). Once could easily argue his .607 OPS in 2016 (216 PAs) and .680 OPS in 2020 (148 PAs) were bigger outliers than 2015 and 2018, but you will see what you want to see. I see a decent .740 hitter, which is pretty good for 2B.
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Agreed, and Renfroe vs RHPs is likely still better than Arroyo. Until we know more, Cordero should probably never start vs a LHP. So, one could call it an Arroyo-Cordero platoon with EHern flipping from 2B to CF. Gonzalez & Chavis might get in ob the act, too. IMO, finding a way to platoon Renfroe and Cordero in LF would be best, but playing Arroyo too much is not a good idea. Assuming Devers, Bogey, Verdugo, JD, Vaz, EHern & Dalbec play FT or near FT, the last 2 slots (LF/CF & 2B) will likely be divided based on splits: L-R Splits since 2017: v RHP .786 Cordero .782 Marwin Gonzalez .740 Chavis .704 Renfroe .678 Arroyo v LHPs .907 Renfroe .743 Marwin G .699 Chavis .597 Arroyo .573 Cordero (Marwin's numbers are inflated from 2017.)
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True, and even a batting slot by batting slot comp can be misleading.
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Our 9 hitter has a .798 OPS the last 2 years. That might be the best in MLB. While Dalbec, Renfroe and Cordero may be big question marks, their numbers look very good. EHern as the 8th hitter might be top 6-8 in all of baseball.
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My method was very crude. I won't deny the Jays offense looks better, on paper, but I think it might be closer than a 5.7 WAR differential.
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BOS vs TOR C Vaz >Jansen 1B Dalbec 2B EHern 3B Devers > Biggio SS Bogey > Bichette LF Renfroe CF Cordero RF Verdugo > Grichuk DH JD > Tellez/Hernandez Seems pretty close.
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Maybe you'd like this... 1. Verrdugo 2. Bogey 3. Renfroe/Cordero 4. Devers 5. JD 6. Dalbec 7. EHern 8. Vaz 9. Arroyo or Cordero/Renfroe (off handed)
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Fair point.
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I agree, but his splits scream for a platoon.
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Current Sox Players Splits since 2017: v RHP .911 JD M .874 Devers .855 Bogey .810 Verdugo .786 Cordero .782 Gonzalez .740 Chavis .716 Munoz .715 Plawecki .705 Vazquez .704 Renfroe .691 EHern .678 Arroyo v LHPs 1.155 JD M (best in MLB) .907 Renfroe .868 Bogey .811 EHern .795 Vaz .788 Verdugo .780 Munoz .743 Marwin G .726 Devers .699 Chavis .689 Plawecki .597 Arroyo .573 Cordero
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Chavis his RHPs at .740, but his sample size is small and fueled by early success. He's .699 v LHPs.
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I've been firmly against paying more than $5M/1 for JBJ, but if he goes for $6M, I think I'd have preferred him to Marwin + Sawamura.
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Cordero looks like the better bet, but looks to be our CF'er.
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Small SSs like McClain don't thrill me, either.
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So,... 1. Rocker 2. Fabian 3. Del Castillo 4. ???
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I've already said I'd be okay with going over the tax line for someone like Odorizzi, assuming he is healthy. Maybe, that argument could win me over, as it would be a move as much for 2022 and 2023 as 2021. (I still think putting off the next reset by another year holds more value than signing Odorizzi and/or JBJ.) Saying the highest or second highest spending GM over the last two decades should spend more does not make sense to me, at all. The guy has been a godsend to long, suffering Sox fans.
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Agreed. I also think Devers and Bogey are poised for monster years. Verdugo should improve. I'm hoping Vaz stays near .790. EHern should do fine. Dalbec, Cordero & Renfroe are the wild cards. Arroyo, Chavis and Marwin may not be needed all that much.
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Assuming he regains most of what he had before 2020.
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Thanks for the info. Who would you take with the first pick? 2nd? 3rd? 4th? I'm not against HS picks, but I don't think this is the time to go that route. MLB.com has this... Kumar Rocker RHP Vandy Jordan Lawler SS HS Adrian del Castillo C Miami Jud Fabian OF Florida Jaden Hill RHP LSU Matt McLain SS UCLA Jack Leiter RHP Vandy Matcelo Mayer SS HS Prospectslive: Rocker Fabian McClain Mayer Leiter Baseballprospectjournal... Rocker Lawlar Fabian Leiter McClain mymlbdraft... Rocker Leiter Lawler McClain Mayer mvpsportstalk... Rocker Del Castillo Fabian Leiter Hill I'm no expert, but I might make this the Sox top drfat list: 1. Rocker 2. Fabian 3. Leiter 4. Hill 5. McClain (I dropped all HS players off my top 5 list.)
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...and JD seems like the perfect 4 or 5 hitter.
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Maybe more sold than Cordero as a FT CF option. Perhaps, EHern plays CF vs LHPs- as a kind of platoon with Cordero & Arroyo: v RHP LF: Renfroe CF: Cordero 2B: EHern v LHP LF: Renfroe CF: EHern 2B: Arroyo
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He's not all that fast, so I'm not sure about the one or two slot. That's one reason I had him 3rd in my original line-up. If you like the lefty-righty thingee... L Verdugo R Bogey L Devers R JD L Cordero/R Renfroe R Dalbec R Hern R Vaz R Arroyo/ S Gonzalez/ R Chavis (hits RHPs better)
