moonslav59

Dalbec can be a plus at 1B. Verdugo is a plus. EHern is a bigger plus in CF, but some numbers show he's a plus at 2B. Devers has been hit or miss. He can be a plus in 2021, and hopefully, Cora's influence will get him there. I may be in the minority, but I think Bogey and Vaz are net minuses on D ONLY. That leaves 2B, CF and LF. EHern can turn one plus, but he can only playmone position at a time. Beni was sliding on D, but I'm not sure we can say Renfroe is a plus or minus in LF or better or worse than Beni. Cordero shows the tools but has yet toput it all together. Arroyo has not has great defensive metrics at 2B, but he seems capable. Maybe it won't be as bad as I have made it out to be, but there is reason to think it could get real bad. It could also get near average, if a lot goes right (mostly with Cordero, Dalbec & Devers- the unknowns, more or less.)

Hard to know. Moreland had only 79 PAs with the Sox, last year. He's a very good defender and has hit pretty well. He is not a 1.177 OPS guy, like he was in those 79 PAs. I've always been high on Dalbec- higher than most and perhaps too high. His K's are worrisome, but he gets on base a lot, unlike Chavis and Middy. His 92 PAs of .959 ball, last year was nice, but I'm not expecting that over a full season. I hate to compare 2020 to 2021, since 2020 was just 60 games long and much less for several players. It might be better to look at 2019-2020 vs 2021, in some cases. We stayed even at catcher and SS. Our 1Bman, combined, hit .942, last year, so it's hard to say we can get better, but we can do better than 2019. (Same with catcher: thanks to Plawecki, our C OPS was .865. That will not likely be repeated.) I do expect improvement at these slots (some over 2019/some over 2020): Position 2020/2019 2B: .586/.661 - Hard to not see massive improvement here, unless EHern plays CF DH: .623/.776- Gotta hope we see more like 2018 or 2019 than 2020, here LF: .683/.753- I'm confident we improve here. 3B: .816/.897- Let's hope for 2019 not 2020, but I'm hoping even better. SS:.824/.943- Bogey is in peak prime, now. RF: .853/.926- We can't beat Betts and 2019, but Verdugo can improve. Others: C: .865/.744- Just give us neat .790, and I'll be happy. 1B: 942/.745- Hard to call. somewhere in between would be nice (.800+)

So, nobody wanted to pay him less than $1M for 1 month of JBJ + playoffs?

What was the comp? Career? How about.... 2015-2017? Since 2018? I also wonder if games played is an accurate divider by WAR, since EHern likely played many partial games. I did get this from BBR WAR per 650 PAs: EHern: 0.9 (15-17) 4.1 (18-20) JBJ: 5.2 (15-17) 3.1 (18-20) The trends are clearly in EHern's favor.

You'd think he'd have been traded, if anyone offered anything of value.

No moves, other than EHern improved the defense, but that's on Bloom- not Cora. Good luck, Cora. We will need it!

There is some anecdotal evidence that people hit hard by COVID have come back to feeling full strength, then get hit by fatigue months later. I'm not trying to be a pessimist, but the long term effects of COVID are largely unknown. There are some studies that show some rather frightening results. I'm very confident ERod will be fine, but it is no given he's 100% done with COVID's effects.

JBJ was a full time player for much longer than EHern, and WAR rewards more playing time, bigly. Can EHern give 650 PAs for 2 years in a row? I can't see why not, but he never has. I see a better defensive CF'er in EHern. I see even offense but maybe more consistency from EHern's offense. (His OPS+ has been better since 2017) He can play 7 positions. He's 1.5 years younger.

It's hard to know the long term effects, but this is very encouraging. Many look to Sale as the savior, but he's not due back until June, at the earliest. ERod is the rock of this rotation for 2021. If we can get 170+ from him, then all the other ifs take on a little less importance, although we still need more to go right.

T Walker to Mets. Porcello maybe to Tigers?

Yes, they have slipped since his prime years. I don't view the 60 game season as a valid sample size. One full season is barely enough to value defense for an OF'er, and the people who run UZR/150 will say just that. Do you really think JBJ is the same defender he was 3-7 years ago? Based on a 60 game season? I've never said he is not still a plus. I said he is no longer an "elite defender," and EHern is now better on D.

The 2nd year might be prohibitive. He can be flipped, if he's hitting .814 like 2020, yes, but who here, expects that? What if he's hitting .714, like he was at the deadline in 2019? How about .663 like 2018? (That was when money was not so tight.)

JBJ WAS a great defender. Kike is better now. Are you taking JBJ because of his offense? OPS+ since 2017: JBJ: 89, 92, 90, 118 (which could be the outlier year?) Kike: 92, 117, 87, 83 (also one outlier year, but not a short season) All-in-all, pretty close on offense. Kiki 98/ JBJ 94 (2017-2020 combined) I'll take EHern over 2017-2020 and certainly for 2021-2022. EHern is showing no signs of decline at age 29. JBJ turns 31 in 2 months. (BTW, "favorite player" does not equate to best player.) While Kike has been no great offensive player over the years, please don't think the 60 game 2020 JBJ is what his offense will be like over the next 2 years.

I'd put them about the same. I said I'd rather have their rotation than ours, right now. My point was that Jacko acts like it's a forgone conclusion our rotation will suck, despite the fact that he is relying on more SP'ers with 0 IP in 2020 (3) or less than 50 IPs the last 2 years (5) than we are. It's entirely within reason, our rotation ends up being healthier and or better than theirs. They kill us in the bullpen and defense. I don't think they kill us on offense, like Jacko does, but I'm counting on JD to bounce back and Devers, Bogey & Verdugo to have huge years. Vaz has been at about .800 from 2019-2020 and that could blow away what the Yankee catcher does. Dalbec shows promise, but I would not project better offense from our 1B v theirs. Middle IF goes to the Yanks. 3B to the Sox. LF, depending on the health of some players and the wild card Cordero, who knows? I'd go Sox, because I like a Renfroe-Cordero platoon (if that's what ends up happening). Hicks has not been great, but who plays CF for the Sox? EHern> Hicks, Verdugo > Hicks, but Cordero I think the Yanks score more than the Sox, but not by much. The Yanks led the AL in runs scored, last year, but as bad as things went for the Sox, they finished 5th in scoring (22 runs behind the Yanks or about 0.3 runs per game lower.) In 2019, the Yanks finished first, and the Sox 4th (41 runs behind or about 0.25 runs below.) Who improved their offense? Both are hoping for injured or low performing players to give more in 2021 than 2020 or 2019, but who added more new and promising players on offense only, as compared to who they lost? Yanks added nobody and lost Gardner (maybe). Gardner was 8th in PAs for the Yanks at .747. Who gets his PAs? You can say Judge and Frazier and that should be a plus, but the Sox could say the same about Renfroe/Cordero over Beni. The Sox added EHern .749 since 2018 Renfroe .772 since 2018 Cordero .754 since 2018 Gonzalez .713 since 2018 (.771 since 2017-the trash can year) Call me optimistic, but I like who we added on offense more than who we lost. We lost: JBJ (5th in PAs) .844 but much worse in 2019 Pillar (8th in PAs) .795 Peraza (9th) .617 Moreland (13th) 1.177 (79 PAs) Lin (14th) .355 Beni (16th) .442 also, we should see much less PAs from... Chavis (7th) .636 Arauz (12th) .644 and more from... Dalbec (10th) .959 Arroyo (15th) .736

I thought we paid too much for EHern, when you compare him to what Wong and C Hernandez got. I also thought we overpaid for Richards and Ottavino, but with only 1 year deals, I'm not going to raise a big stink. Back to EHern v JBJ. EHern looks to be a better defensive CF'er than JBJ, right now and over the last 2-3 years. If we use him mostly at our high-need area, 2B, we waste that value, but being able to play 7-8 positions does add value. Since our 2B and CF positions are still our weakest non pitching positions, EHern's flexibility really is a big advantage. He can start in CF, then move to 2B as Renfroe or Cordero PH for Arroyo. 2-3 years ago, I'd have taken JBJ over EHern. Now, EHern, even at $14M/2 is a better deal than JBJ at $12M/2, and we're not even sure JBJ will go that low. I will never forget what JBJ did for us, but the reality is, he's not the same JBJ anymore,IMO. Maybe 2020 is a sign he will have a resurgence, late in his career, but due to the up and down nature of his career, more offensively than defensively, though he did seem to go up and down in UZR/150 almost year-to-year, I'm not being sold on the 2020 numbers vs the 2017-2019 numbers- a much larger sample size. I wish him the best. He was my favorite player for 7-8 years. He's not worth going over the Tax for. Had we signed him first at $12M/2, I'd be saying that same about whoever our most recent signee had been, since none of these guys look like world beaters or must-haves.

He's still a plus defender but not great. His bat comes and goes and often has been good for long enough to not be a minus on offense. Overall, taking away his first year or two, he's been a plus on offense, too, when compared to other CF'ers. He looked pretty good in 2020, but he's done that for 60 games several times in the last few years but ended up with somewhat crappy numbers compared to his prime years. The three JBJs: .548 OPS from 2013-2014 (53 OPS+) .834 OPS from 2015-2016 (118 OPS+) .737 OPS from 2017-2020 (94 OPS+) I've already shown his defensive metrics have slipped significantly over the last 2-3 years.

We keep hearing how Paxton and Happ did nothing for the Yanks in the 60 game 2020 season where the Yanks went 6 gamesover .500. How are these guys improvements over Tanaka, Paxton & Happ, but when we talk Sox questionable starters, it's all about their recent history or injury history? 2020 Yankee Numbers: 0 IP Severino (12 IP in 2019) 1 IP Kluber (36 IP in 2019) 0 IP Taillon (37 IP in 2019) 44 IP 5.11 ERA Montgomery (4 IP in 2019) 34 IP 4.98 ERA Garcia 27 IP 7.76 ERA King 0 IP German Look, I'm not saying I like our rotation better than the Yanks, but let's be consistent with our criteria of placing value on the SP'ers. Is it really obvious the above SP'er will be an improvement over 3 of the top 4-5 innings eaters on the Yanks from 2019-2020 Tanaka 230 IP 4.27 ERA (104 ERA+) JA Happ 211 IP 4.57 ERA (97 ERA+) Paxton 171 IP 4.16 ERA (107 ERA+) 2018-2020? JA Happ 388 IP 4.15 ERA (105 ERA+) part of 2018 w TOR Tanaka 386 IP 4.06 (107 ERA+) Paxton 331 IP 3.97 (108 ERA+) 2018 w SEA Then, there is Stanton playing 41 games and Judge playing 130 games from 2019-2020. There is a very very significant chance the Yanks did not get better, this winter. Of course, they might, but they have as many question marks or more than the Sox do.

Actually, I was saying he wasn't worth the money he got, last year. We reset, so it didn't matter all that much. Signing him now, and going over the line, is not worth it, and I'm talking $5.5M/1. He's going to get even more. Now, if we trade some salary, somehow, and can stay under while signing him for $12M/2, I guess I'd be "okay" again, but who are we trading and how do we fill that hole? (He's also a year older, now.)

Rosenthal signs with A's for $11M/1 paid over 3 years. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/02/athletics-sign-trevor-rosenthal.html Kela signs with Padres.

He seems like that type, but who knows how Bloom values him vs Brice, Wilson, Walden or others.

I'm thinking we want $2-3M for the deadline, so we have $2-3M to spend, now. Will he sign for that? I guess we can go over a bit and become sellers at the deadline, but it might get too complex with the summer decision, if we are close to being playoff bound. If you think fans are pissed, now. Imagine us being 4 games behind the wild card slot at the deadline and selling off contracts to stay under the tax line.

Some nice names but some long odds.

I'm glad this is not the realistic thread.

I wouldn't be surprised if he's DFA'd within a few weeks. These guys are just incrementally better than the ones they replace- if that.

$12M/2 for a CF coach? No thanks.