moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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I don't disagree, and we could have "afforded" him. The point I try to make is that, agree or disagree- like it or not, we do have restrictions on spending, at least every 2-3 years (re-sets). Spending big on anyone, and I have no issues with arguing Betts was worth it over guys like Price and even Sale, JD, Eovaldi and Bogey, means spending less on other positions. With a farm as weak as our was, at the time of choosing what to do with Betts, the choice of signing Betts and not having cheap but good prospects filling open slots would have meant having a very unbalanced team going forward, and when the re-set years came up (every 2-3 years), we'd be a mess. I agree, though. A team like the Sox should be able to afford any one player they want- and even more, but the fact is, we already had several big-priced players on the books.
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One nice thing going for us, and it's no accident- Bloom planned it this way, is that our most likely high need areas, this summer, are also the areas we have the best internal depth, including top prospects nearing MLB readiness: P: Houck, Bazardo, Seabold and others 2B: Downs, Santana, Arauz, Munoz, Chavis OF: Duran (Munoz/Santana) 1B: Chavis, Casas (Ockimey) Note: our internal OF depth is not deep, but Duran is likely our best AAA prospect nearing ML readiness, and we do have Kike, Marwin, Santana, Munoz and maybe even Chavis able to play OF.
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Context. Betts and 5 scrubs or Verdugo, 2 prospects and 5 decent players.
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I don't disagree, but his contract was part of the Betts equation and trade.
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The only real point against that is that Renfroe only hits lefties well, and that's the smaller platoon side. He can play RF, so I like Renfroe, too. If Santana is called up, he's a switch hitter who is pretty even v L (.697) & v R (.727), but not really spectacular. In his big 2019 season, he hit nearly identical vs lefties (.856) and righties (.858). -
I think many of these "over achieving" teams will likely come back to earth. It remains to be seen, if the Sox are in that group. I don't think any of us expect us continuing a .640 winning %, but making the playoffs or even squeaking by with a divisional crown do not seem all that absurd.
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This Royals team is reminding of the ones that went far two years in a row back from 2014 to 2015.
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The main two reasons I lobbied for Kike in CF was that his metrics showed he was the best defensive CF'er we have- by far and that we had way more choice at 2B than OF: Arroyo, Marwin, Chavis, Arauz, Munoz, Downs, Santana... Maybe the third reason was to keep Cordero & Renfroe in platoon-only mode and in LF only. Marwin's defense was never even an after thought, but I still think the 2B job is now Arroyo's. Marwin is seriously challenging Renfroe & Cordero for the FT LF job. When Danny Santana's opt out time is up (he agreed to extend it into May), we may see Cordero or Renfroe demoted.
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Since the Mookie thread has been moved up, let's change the subject for this thread... The Sox and Dodgers are now tied for the second best record. The best record, by percentage points is not the Padres. It's not the surprising Giants. It's not the surging A's, and we all know it ain't the Yanks! It's the Royals! Danny Duffy has a 0.39 ERA! Singer is at 2.95 but is 1-2. The pen has been great, but only Carlos Santana has an OPS over .792. Out of their 10 batters with 35+ PAs, 6 are below .700. It must be Beni's clubhouse influence!
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It's hard to know, but IMO, they looked at their near term budget (through Price, JD, Eovaldi and maybe even Bogey's opt out) and the longer term budget (Sale and eventual extensions or replacements needed for Devers, ERod, JD, Eovaldi, Bogey and others) and felt they could not squeeze his numbers into a budget and field a deep enough team to compete. You point is well taken. The Sox have a long history of placing a firm value on their own players as they near free agency and not budging from that number. It is actually one area they have been superb in their choices. I can certainly see them determining he just is not worth more than what they thought it would take to keep him. That's pretty simple and perhaps accurate.
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What about my first question?
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Had we not traded Betts and still reset, it's hard to know where our draft pick would be, and if we'd have traded all those guys for Pivetta, Seabold, Rosario, Potts and others. Also, would we have picked high enough to get Whitlock in the rule 5? Lot's of unknowns.
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Price opting out of 2020 speaks volumes, too. I still can't believe several posters were very upset he was included in that deal. As bad as Richards and Perez have been, this year, I'd still take both over Price's $16M (going forward) all day long, and we still have his $16M for 2022, too!
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When I look at the merits of the Sale trade, I don't factor in the extension. That is a separate transaction and choice. The Betts trade was 60 games of Betts and 3 years of Price (that turned into 2 due to his opt out) at half price for Verdugo, Downs and Wong. The money "savings" part is not really part of the deal, since it assumes we extended Betts, but since many are assuming that, then we can look at the money part of the trade, too. $25M x 12 of Betts plus $16M of Price x 2 vs what else could we get for that money + Verdugo, Downs & Wong.
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I do, too, and I was the guy saying pay him $400M/14. Had we not had Sale and Price's contracts, it would have been much easier.
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The deferred money does not count after the 12 years are up? Are you sure about that? Why not sign everyone like this, then?
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And, that assumes we kept Betts AND he signed with us. Plus, Price's 70 ERA+.
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Either way: it's $30M x 12 or $25M x 14 or 15 years. Go with $25M + $16M from Price, and we have Betts and Price with no Verdugo and $41M less to spend last winter. That's basically more money that everybody we signed. We'd have this 26 man roster plus maybe dumping another salary somehow: Eovaldi, ERod, Sale, Price, Pivetta, Houck (No Richards or Perez) Barnes, DHern, Whitlock, Valdez, Brasier, Brice, Taylor, Bazardo, Brewer (No Ottavino, Andriese, Sawamura) Vaz & Plawecki Dalbec Arroyo & Chavis (No Marwin or Downs) Devers Bogey Cordero (No Renfroe) Duran (No Kike) Betts (No Verdugo) JD Not only is this team worse (maybe debatable) , the farm is worse (not debatable) and our future spending power is greatly diminished (not debatable).
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Ummm, not trading Betts means we have Price's full $32M contract still on the books. That's over $45M to make up. Richards is $10M of that.
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The point is that yes, we can afford him, but when you also have Price at $32M, Sale at $25M, JD at $22M, Bogey at $20M and Eovaldi at $17M, the rest of your roster is going to be full of players barely above replacement level, unless you have a strong, deep and balanced farm. Let's not for get the David Price part of that deal. It was Crawfordesque.
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Oh, and I forgot to add the $16M saved by Price. Basically, every dollar we spent, this winter is still less than Betts + Price's half share.
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We can argue about spending limits or no spending limits, but mix and match to reach the $30M Betts has for an AVV: Betts $30M or Verdugo $0.65M plus mix n match... $10M Richards $9M Ottavino $7M Hernandez $5M Perez $3M Marwin $3M Renfroe $2.1M Andriese $1.5M Sawamura Pick the worst bunch to reach $30M. Pick the best. Either way, who plays in the slots left vacant by the ones you pick? You can pray Houck, Duran, Bazardo and Chavis with no Verdugo could join Betts to make us a better team, but I'm not seeing it.
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Updated Rotation Numbers: 3-0 2.81 Pivetta 4-0 3.52 ERod 3-2 3.77 Eovaldi 1-2 4.94 Richards 0-1 5.71 Perez IP H - BB - K 28.2 28- 5- 27 Eovaldi 25.2 15-17-25 Pivetta 23.2 25-13-22 Richards 23.0 18- 2 -26 ERod 17.1 20- 9 -15 Perez Team Record in Starts 4-0 ERod (45-12 from 2018-2019) 4-1 Pivetta 3-1 Perez 3-2 Eovaldi 2-3 Richards The team has gone 49-12 in ERod's last 61 starts with the Sox! .803 winning %
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Pivetta has always had nasty stuff. His issue has always been the BBs. I had high hopes for him, this year and even projected him to do better than Perez (no biggie) and the same as Eovaldi. I also thought Kike would play more CF than 2B. My list of wrong projections is much longer.
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Who left the Barnes door open?
