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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    Is everyone who ever did great in a lot of clutch situations definitely clutch, or could some just have gotten lucky? And, is everyone who ever did very poorly in a lot of clutch situations definitely chokes, or could some just have been unlucky? If you answer yes, some can, how can you tell them apart? We all know baseball is a game of streaks- good and bad. Doesn't it seem likely that some players just had a good or bad streak at the right or wrong time? Few had it happen very often. Most had ups and downs. Kinda like any given point is a season or career. If I just said, let's randomly choose several 2-3 week periods out of every player's career to reach the sample sizes of Schilling and Kershaw, how many sample sizes would be almost exactly like their career norm? How many would be significantly higher or lower? How many would reach the extremes they reached?
  2. moonslav59
    He repeated sucking many times, too.
  3. moonslav59
    Schilling never had 2 series in a row with awful numbers, let alone 3, like Beckett. Beckett's 73+ IP sample size was pretty significant, before the boom came down. How about Mr. October, himself? Reggie Jackson. No denying the guy went on a rampage in the playoffs for quite some time, but then what happened? He went about 218 PAs being "da man," but then went 20 for 91 (.220) over his last 100 PAs. He still had an OPS over .810 in that time frame during the regular season, so did he just lose that "clutch skill?" Maybe, he wasn't really all that clutch and just got hot in a few late season series. Career .846 OPS .804 Late & Close .855 High Leverage .885 post Season
  4. moonslav59
    Yes, both have pitched a lot of playoff innings: close to a full season, each. 189 Kershaw 4.19 ERA/1.074 WHIP His worst ERA was 4.26 in 108 IP, then 3.39 in 2021 and he's had 3 seasons with a worse WHIP than 1.074 and a couple more rather close. 133 Schilling 2.23 ERA/0.968 WHIP His best season ERA was 2.35 and 2.54 and WHIP 0.968 and 0.990 These two certainly look like evidence to support the "clutch" player claim, but it does not prove it. It can't be proved, either side.
  5. moonslav59
    ...and then some! lol!
  6. moonslav59
    Correct answer! We used to be pretty good in this area. Okajima Tazawa Bogaerts, Montas and Iggy in one year! (2009) Margot (2011) Devers & DHer (2013) Moncada & Bazardo (2014) Nothing but Hector Velazquez and Sawamura since then!
  7. moonslav59
    Correct. My bad. The worst I can find, without going back too far is you've won 4 of the last 7.
  8. moonslav59
    Fun with numbers... Dalbec is at ... .957 since July 21st (last game at TOR) .832 since July 9th (first game vs PHI) .827 since June 28th (first game vs KCR) .812 since June 15th- 2 months! .809 since June 5th. You have to go back to June 3rd to get a sample size below .800 with Dalbec.
  9. moonslav59
    Who was the last good or great IFA we signed?
  10. moonslav59
    If it's a skill, what happened to Josh Beckett in 2008-2009? His regular season ERA those 2 years was 3.93. His career was 3.88. Before 2008, he was on pace to become one of the most "clutch" pitchers in the history of MLB. The rest of his post season saw him have a 7.71 ERA (18 ERs in 21 IP) How about Mr. Choke Barry Bonds?
  11. moonslav59
    So you'd expect about 1 time of 74 heads per 1 million sample sizes. ~2 per million at 73. ~1 per 100K at 72 (or 6 per million). 2 per 100K at 71 (16 per million). 4 per 100K at 70. Maybe had I said 70, my point would have been more realistic.
  12. moonslav59
    How about 73 Heads? LOL
  13. moonslav59
    Impressive stat get! Not that impressive a stat.
  14. moonslav59
    You don't think, if you flip a coin in 100 times sample sizes- a million times, one or two might come up 75 heads?
  15. moonslav59
    They should change their name from the O's to the M's, but keep the cool logo. "The Morioles"
  16. moonslav59
    I cherry-picked the worst, which is not bad at all. You've won 3 of the last 6.
  17. moonslav59
    Not only does not playing Monday help our pen, not playing Thursday also helps Cora by not needing to "save" anyone for the next day.
  18. moonslav59
    I believe studies have shown that randomly generated samples mirror almost exactly what happens in reality. Kimmi knows more about this, but I do remember reading the linked articles she provided, long ago.
  19. moonslav59
    His Tuesday sample size is large, too.
  20. moonslav59
    He's never played over 200 innings at 2B, until this year. Last year, he looked kinda shaky. When the moved him 10 1B, instead of Kike, who had actually played 1B in MLB over 80 innings, I figured Cora liked Kike's D at 2B more than Arroyo's. I think Cora once said Kike was the best defensive 2B in the league, too. So there is that. I agree on Kike>>> Duran in CF.
  21. moonslav59
    Wouldn't you expect these types of variances by randomly generating numbers based on the playoff sample sizes and regular season stats? How does just showing one pitcher did way better than another prove it is because the sample size was mostly clutch. If you looked at pitcher stats for Monday vs Tuesday or the moth of June vs the month of July, you'd see similar variances, but you'd probably not claim Kershaw has a special Monday or June skill that others do not possess, right?
  22. moonslav59
    I'm no expert on Sox prospects, especially at the lower levels, but these numbers look encouraging: OPS Against: .703 Blalock (60 IP) .680 DiValerio (54) .707 Kwiatkowski (51) .579 C Cobb (51) .524 Roedahl (45) .576 Fernandez (36) .440 B Walter (31) OPS .961 Joe Davis (189) .871 Groshans (141) .864 Yorke (271 ABs) .786 Northcut (274) .834 S Scott (212)
  23. moonslav59
    Having Monday, Thursday and Monday off in the next 8 days should help us limit having to over use our best RP'ers, but even if our pen does well, this week, I'll still be concerned, as I am with our starters and defense, too. The offense is the only thing I know can and will bounce back from bad stretches.
  24. moonslav59
    With Shaw, the answer might be a 50-50 guess, at best.
  25. moonslav59
    ..and of course, I'll repeat the refrain, "He can't hit any worse than Cordero, Marwin or _____!"
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