moonslav59

2021 Run Differential +84 TBR +67 BOS They likely view us as "pesky." SP fWAR 8.4 BOS (8th) 6.8 TBR (15th) RP fWAR 3.6 TBR (3rd) 3.5 BOS (4th) Everyday Player fWAR 13.7 TBR 13.6 BOS Offense: 21.3 BOS 8.8 TBR Defense 12.0 TBR -0.9 BOS I still don't get these numbers: UZR/150 6.8 TBR (3rd) 5.7 BOS (4th) (I'm losing my faith in this metric) DRS (seems more accurate) 60 TBR (1st) 14 BOS (14th)

...and good pitching.

Well, .772 is a big improvement over Marwin & Santana and even Dalbec.

I admit I am very naïve about slot and bonus money, but I don't understand why any player would agree to go well below slot money, unless they think they'd drop far enough in the draft to make less at that slot. Is that how it works? Here are the numbers: First Round 1) Pirates: $8,415,300 2) Rangers: $7,789,900 3) Tigers: $7,221,200 4) Red Sox: $6,664,000 5) Orioles: $6,180,700 6) D-backs: $5,742,900 7) Royals: $5,432,400 8) Rockies: $5,176,900 9) Angels: $4,949,100 10) Mets: $4,739,900 11) Nationals: $4,547,500 12) Mariners: $4,366,400 13) Phillies: $4,197,300 14) Giants: $4,036,800 15) Brewers: $3,885,800 Here are the bonus pools for all 30 clubs: Pirates: $14,394,000 Tigers: $14,253,800 Rangers: $12,641,000 Reds: $11,905,700 Orioles: $11,829,300 Red Sox: $11,359,600 D-backs: $11,271,900 Royals: $10,917,700 Rockies: $10,543,900 Brewers: $10,063,400 Marlins: $9,949,800 Angels: $9,295,900 Mets: $9,026,300 Nationals: $8,770,000 Mariners: $8,526,000 Phillies: $8,295,000 Cardinals: $8,167,100 Twins: $8,101,400 Giants: $8,070,600 Rays: $7,955,800 Guardians: $7,398,800 Yankees: $6,943,700 Padres: $6,812,300 Cubs: $6,779,400 White Sox: $6,618,600 Braves: $6,326,300 Athletics: $6,188,900 Blue Jays: $5,775,900 Dodgers: $4,646,700 Astros: $2,940,600 The Astros really got bashed hard.

Some interesting Sox OPS trends... JD was falling for over a month, but has recently leap-frogged Bogey and Devers in OPS: .933 JD .932 Devers .913 Bogey One big game by any of these guys can jumble their positions. (Verdugo has fallen to the second tier but is still doing well.) The next set of players has grown from just Renfroe to 4 guys. This is great news as we now have 7 guys over .739. .780 Verdugo (may drop from the top 4, soon) .778 Renfroe (pretty consistent since May 1st) .756 Kike (on a steep rise) .739 Arroyo (big drop after 0-5 night) The next tier has a few players on the rise, and maybe 1-2 may joing tier two by the end of July. .684 Dalbec (still waiting for a longer hot streak) .668 Plawecky (on IL) .651 Vaz (hoping he can find that near .800 level, again) .585 Marwin (actually doing better) .557 Chavis (last gasp) .522 Santana (on IL) Last 14 Days (20+ PAs) 1.161 JD 1.121 Kike 1.120 Devers .820 Renfroe .819 Bogey .755 Marwin .748 Dalbec (.827 last 28 days) .708 Verdugo .569 Vaz

Exactly. There were some calling for Renfroe to be demoted, platooned or worse after his April. That sample size is not much different from the length of Dalbec's slump or Santana's scattered sample size of failure. I'm guilty of over-reacting, too. I often print the recent 7, 14 and 28 day numbers to show who is hot. I often argue, why demote Dalbec when he's hit .850 over the last __ games. Baseball is a game of patience in a world of increasing impatience.

They see big stud prospects making instant impacts for other teams and equate Duran with players like Guerrero, Acuna and Tatis.

I agree. No 7 day, 30 day or even longer sample sizes should be the determining factor in a promotion or demotion. My point was about Renfroe not Duran.

Casas is above A Ball, but I do not think he is ML ready. Ockimey is on his "last chance" season in the minors and is not showing he deserves a chance, despite the decent splits as a platoon.

Had we called him up July 1st, as many wanted, why should we have expected he'd do any better than .636? It's a gamble. It's easy to look back and say so-and-so hit .400 in July, so how can he have done worse, but nobody knew, for sure, so-and-so was going to hit .400 on June 30th.

So, why is 7 days the magical cut off for determining how well a player will do going forward?

I'd like nothing more than Duran being called, start and do well. Yes, he can help in many ways, assuming he does well. The thing is, I also like Kike, Arroyo and Dalbec. I think all have shown they deserve a longer look. None should be benched, totally for anyone else in our system. I don't want Duran called up to ride the bench, even if he's better than Santana and Marwin combined. It would stunt his growth. If I was 100% sure Duran could do better than Dalbec, I still would not call him up to replace Dalbec. It would mean weakening our defense at 2 positions by moving Kike to 1B. It would end Dalbec's chance to prove he can be our FT 1Bman. It would lessen Kike's value to the team. No move like this is made in isolation. It seems obvious Duran is better than Marwin and Santana, but it's not that simple.

IMO, we are going to sign 3 decent FAs, this winter, minimum. We may go big on 3 or moderate on 5, but I doubt we sign 6 or more players expected to be on the opening day 26 man roster, unless we trade some good players away.

Then, who replaces next year's 3 IL guys?

Big drop off for the top two pen guys.

We may be surprised by a bigger move than expected, but we may value some players much more highly than Bloom & Co. do. He may trade Groome, and we think, "Man, I'm surprised he traded a very promising pitching prospect," but maybe Bloom does not see a bright future for him (or some other rather highly ranked prospect).

Do we know, if they met with Mayer?

This shows why I trust cots.

I'm reading Mayer on most mock drafts. One said he had the best hit and defensive rating in the draft. I admit, I know only what I read. I think... Mayer Leiter Lawlar Davis

That's the way things go.

That's what I think, and maybe a LH'd hitting 1Bman. How Sale is progressing and how they plan on using him could sway us to trade for a SP'er.

A while ago, I was 50-50, but this year's team is looking more and more like a winner. I would not trade Downs or any other prospect Bloom & Co. think can be special. I count about 10 guys on our current 40 man roster I would not miss, if we traded them. We have 5-7 Rule 5 prospects that could squeeze our 40 man, next season- depending on how many free agents we sign. My guess is, Bloom will identify who he thinks won't make the 2022 40 man roster and offer any of them that are not a part of the 2021 drive to a ring. Who those players are is conjecture, but I'd guess Chavis, Potts, Wilson, Arauz and maybe some Rule 5 prospects we may think are worthy of protecting. Now, what can we get for bubble players?

Danny Duffy? His high salary should weaken the return.

Mayer is number 1 or 2.

If the starter is owed a lot of money, maybe the return doesn't have to be anyone real promising. But, we are walking a tight rope n the lux tax line.