moonslav59

Yes, trend towards but never reach it, unless the script is flipped, which goes against the “norm”

I meant to say “a main” not “the main.”

It’s down to 1.7, now, and my deals were all plus to the other team by more than that.

If the 29% final number is correct this math does not add up.

Agreed, but I thinkBloom can walk and chew gum.

$14M x 3, then maybe counter with a 4th year option with a$3M buyout, making it $15M x 3.

Many felt German was the main part of the deal, but you are right. The $8M was a head scratcher. I know part of my questioning the deal was about us being against the wall on spending, which should not be the case with the Barnes signing AND we helped the Yanks stay under the tax line!

Not if we extend him first.

Fabian reduced his K rate a lot after starting the season K’ing all the time. Apparently, the high K rate dropped way down.

Boston.com Round 2 (40): Jud Fabian, OF, Florida An immensely gifted player with loud tools whose stock fell in 2021 based on his performance. Fabian entered the year in the conversation as a potential candidate to land in the upper half of the first round. He has immense power, speed, and big league-caliber defense in center – a rare combination. In the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, he hit .294/.407/.603 with five homers in 17 games. But he struggled in 2021, especially early. Fabian hit .249/.364/.560 with 20 homers and a lot of walks, but his 29 percent strikeout rate raised significant concerns about his future offensive profile. That said, he seemed to settle in as the season progressed, including a 23-game on-base streak from April to mid-May in which Fabian hit .304/.441/.759 while slashing his strikeout rate. Fabian thus comes to the Sox as a college performer with upside but swing-and-miss issues that raise questions about his floor – not unlike 2016 fourth-rounder Bobby Dalbec. Round 3 (75): Tyler McDonough, 2B, NC State McDonough played mostly center in college but was announced as a second baseman. A 2018 graduate of Moehller (Ohio) High School — the same program that produced Ken Griffey Jr. and Barry Larkin — McDonough was a consistently solid college performer. In 2021, he hit .339/.423/.631 with 15 homers and 37 extra-base hits in 55 games. He showed an uptick in power this year though his strikeout rate elevated to 18 percent, up from 13 percent in his first two college seasons. Even so, the 5-foot-10 switch-hitter has been a solid performer and key contributor at a good college program, suggesting a strong likelihood of reaching the big leagues in at least some capacity. Round 4 (105): Elmer Rodriguez, RHP, Leadership Christian Academy (PR) At a Perfect Game event, he was up to 94 mph. His size (6-foot-4 but just 165 pounds) suggests projectable stuff as he adds size/strength. Round 5 (136): Nathan Hickey, C, Florida The Red Sox turned back to Florida for this selection. The lefthanded hitter posted a .317/.435/.522 line with nine homers and more walks (42) than strikeouts (40) this season. He finished the year with a tremendous performance in the SEC Tournament, hitting .429 and slugging .643. In addition to catching, he also played first and third at Florida. Round 6 (166): Daniel McElveny, utility fielder, Bonita Vista HS The Red Sox scouts who made dozens of hours-long drives to Chula Vista, Calif., to see first rounder Marcelo Mayer clearly made the most of their time. In the sixth round, the team selected another high school player from Chula Vista, Daniel McElveny from Bonita High School (down the road from where Mayer played for Eastlake High School). As a senior, McElveny hit .435/.580/.764 with five homers in 29 games. He has a commitment to play at San Diego State. The Sox viewed him as a strong hitter with some power potential. He played both infield and outfield well enough in high school to suggest a range of positional possibilities moving forward. Round 7 (196): Wyatt Olds, RHP, Oklahoma Olds moved from the Sooners rotation into their bullpen. Olds has power stuff — a fastball that reaches the mid-90s and a slider in the mid-80s — that generated a ton of swings and misses in college, though he was hit hard at times. The 6-foot-tall righty, went 4-6 with a 5.23 ERA while striking out 101 batters (12.0 per nine innings) and walking 37 (4.4 per nine innings) in 75 2/3 innings in 2021. Round 8 (226): Hunter Dobbins, RHP, Texas Tech Dobbins missed the 2021 season after suffering a torn ulnar collateral ligament and requiring Tommy John surgery in his spring buildup. Dobbins threw well in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, allowing three runs in 20 innings (1.35 ERA) while striking out 25 and walking five. According to this profile, the Indianapolis native was topping out at 98 mph this spring before suffering his season-ending injury. Round 9 (256): Tyler Miller, 3B, Auburn The Red Sox added to their day-two haul of SEC position players. In 2021, Miller hit .313/.354/.601 with 16 homers, which led the team. His low walk rate suggests questions about his approach, but there’s real power in his lefthanded swing. He played and started 51 games as a junior, including 48 at first base for the Tigers this season. He was drafted by the Pirates in the 23rd round in 2018. Round 10 (286) Matt Litwicki, RHP, Indiana Litwicki has spent four years at Indiana, but has barely pitched in that time. He missed the 2018 season with Tommy John surgery, returned for 9 1/3 innings as a medical redshirt freshman in 2019, recorded 10 innings before the COVID-19 shutdown in 2020, and was on the mound for 12 innings in 2021. Yet those 10 innings were fascinating, as Litwicki showed career-best, high-90s velocity with 17 strikeouts and two walks.

BTV accepted these trades: R Hernandez, Groome, Ward & Chavis (16.6) to DET for Boyd, Schoop & Cisnero (12.8) _____________________________ Mata, Groome, Rosario & Chavis (18.9) to KCR for S Barlow (3+ yrs), C Santana , D Duffy & $2M. (19.5)(18.9) _______________________ R Hernandez & M Wilson to TEX for Gibson Groome, Ward & Chavis to COL for Gray & Cron _______________________

All 10 Rounds 1. M Mayer SS 2. Jud Fabian OF 3. Tyler McDonough OF 4. Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz P 5. Nathan Hickey C 6. Daniel McElveny Utility 7. Wyatt Olds P 8. Hunter Dobbins P 9. Tyler Miller 3B 10. Matt Litwicki P Bleacher Reports gives the Sox an A- grade

Here are the top 1Bmen by fWAR on teams that may be sellers at the deadline. (Note" some of these players are not "on the block" or may be too costly for the Sox.) 2.2 Freeman ATL .871 OPS 2.1 J Walsh LAA .892 1.7 Goldschmidt STL .767 1.5 C Santana KCR .789 1.5 T France SEA .756 1.2 Stephenson CIN .806 1.2 T Mancini BAL .791 1.2 G Cooper MIA .867 1.2 R Hoskins PHI .797 1.1 J Aguilar MIA .800 1.1 J Schoop DET .787 1.0 N Lowe TEX .762 0.9 J Votto CIN .810 0.7 A Rizzo Cubs .771 0.8 CJ Cron COL .833 Top RP'ers by fWAR 1.8 Kimbrel Cubs 1.4 R Rodriguez PIT 1.3 T Rogers MN 1.2 S Barlow KCR 1.2 P Sewald SEA 1.1 Gallegos STL 1.0 J Cisnero DET 1.0 P Fry BAL 1.0 Steckenrider SEA Top SP'ers 4.5 Wheeler PHI 3.1 T Rogers MIA 2.8 G Marquez COL 2.5 Scherzer WSH 2.4 W Miley CIN 2.3 J Berrios MN 2.2 P Lopez MIA 2.1 Z Eflin PHI 2.1 Alcantara MIA 2.1 C Morton ATL 2.0 K Gibson TEX 1.9 A Cobb LAA 1.6 M Boyd DET 1.4 D Duffy KCR 1.4 S Gray CIN 1.0 T Anderson PIT

Yes, and nobody is below 50%.

My own games started ranking system: Great Start “A”s: 4 IP O ER, 5 IP 1 ER, 6 IP 2 ER, 8 IP 3 ER Good Starts “B”: 3 IP 0 ER, 4 IP 1 ER, 5 IP 2 ER, 6 IP 3 ER, 8 IP 4 ER Decent Starts “C”: 3 IP 1 ER, 4 IP 2 ER, 7 IP 4 ER, 9 IP 5 ER Bad Starts “D”: 3 IP 2 ER, 5 IP 3 ER, 6 IP 4 ER, 8 IP 5 ER Horrible Starts “F”: 4 IP 3 ER, 5 IP 4 ER, 6 IP 5 ER, 8 IP 6 ER Sox Starters in 2021 34 A starts 16 B starts 3 C starts 14 D starts 22 F starts 43 A & B & C 36 D & F Eovaldi A-9: 4/2, 4/7, 4/30, 5/11,5/29, 6/4, 6/14, 6/26, 7/1 B-2: 4/14, 5/22 C-0 D-1: 4/19 F-6: 4/24, 5/6, 5/16, 6/9, 6/20, 7/6 Pivetta A-8: 4/5, 4/22, 4/28, 5/9, 5/14, 6/2, 6/24, 7/4 B-1: 6/7 C-2: 4/17, 6/18 D-4: 4/11, 5/4, 5/20, 5/26 F-3: 6/12, 6/29, 7/11 ERod A-5: 4/14, 4/20, 5/7, 6/27, 7/2 B-3: 4/25, 6/15, 6/22 C-1: 6/5 D-5: 4/8, 5/12, 5/18, 5/31, 6/10 F-2: 5/1,7/7 Perez A-6: 4/29, 5/10, 5/15, 6/3, 6/19, 7/5 B-6: 4/13, 5/5, 5/21, 5/28, 6/25, 6/30 C-0 D-2: 4/6, 4/23 F-4: 4/18, 6/8, 6/13, 7/10 Richards A-6: 4/15, 4/27, 5/2, 5/13, 5/19, 6/1 B-3: 4/10, 5/25, 7/3 C-0: 5/8 D-2: 6/6, 7/9 F-6: 4/4, 4/21, 6/11,6/16, 6/23, 6/28 Houck A-0 B-1: 4/3 C-0 D-0 F-1: 4/18 A,B & C vs D & F 11-7 Eovaldi 11-7 Pivetta 9-7 ERod 12-6 Perez 9-8 Richards 1-1 Houck

“Finally?” I wanted Dalbec demoted a month ago, but then he showed signs of life. My point was that demoting him does not mean we are giving up- same as with Cordero. Finding cheap 1bmen is easy. That being said, our highest need I’d pitching and defense- not 1B

True, but they have also carried us in some ways. They rarely get pulled before the 4th or 5th inning and are 4th in the AL in SP'er IP, so with a 13 man staff for much of the way, they have allowed our pen to not be over-worked all that much. Our starters are also 4th in AL SP'er fWAR.

That's not a certainty. If they just play to the norm the rest of the way, they'll still be way above the mean at the end of the season.

It almost makes more sense to just trade for a FT 1Bman and let Dalbec "find himself" by playing FT at AAA. Being on the weakside of a platoon does not give you any time to find a groove. I'm not saying I'm against a new 1B platoon, but I just wonder.

Dalbec's .830 OPS since June 10th places him 17th out of 34 1Bmen with 80+ PAs. (10th best SLG% at .513/25th best OBP at .318) Does this mean he has turned the corner and might be an average 1Bman going forward? I sure as hell don't know. Out of 39 1Bmen with 350 PAs since 2020, Dalbec ranks 28th in OPS at .745- just below Hosmer and Carlos Santana and Anthony Rizzo.

According to MLB.com, we got these rankings by pick: 4. Mayer #1 40. Fabian #23 75. McDonough #112

Third Pick... 75. Red Sox: Tyler McDonough, INF, NC State Next picks: 105 and 136...

There is room for adjusting to what pitchers have adjusted to, and he has shown signs of adjusting over the last 80 PAs. .830 OPS Ks: 30 K in 85 PA and 80 AB, but 10 in his last 37 PAs/36 AB. Is this better than before June 10th? 65K in 173 PA and 162 AB Looks about the same, except for very recently.

Okay, the choice of the word "re-set" after we just re-set is not the correct wording. My point is, the Sox probably would love to stay under, so they can get to year 3 in 2024 not 2023.

So, what you are saying is pitchers adjust and batter never counter adjust? What's the time period allowed for the batter to adjust to the pitcher's adjustment? It looks, to me, like .830 over his last 80 PAs might be a sign he has counter-adjusted, but if you want to use his tiny last 7 day sample size, maybe he has not adjusted well enough. Who know what Dalbec will become? Is 350 PAs to start a career enough to know? Being in first place makes it harder to give a kid a longer look, but I think Sox management sees something in Dalbec enough to not want to give up just yet. I was for demoting him a while back, so it's not like I don't understand the frustration and sense of urgency. I'm fine with us trading for a LH'd bat that can play 1B, even before the deadline, if possible, but I still think pitching and defense is our highest need area.