moonslav59

We analyze our team to death, so those wild variances jump out at us all. I do think that other teams, including the Jays, Yanks, O's & Tigers have as many or more wild variances being discusses on their fan sites. I'm not sure how comforting that is, but one plus I see about the Sox within this context is our depth. If a few of the variances head south, I think we are better positioned to handle it than other top AL teams. I'll stack our 6-7-8-9 SP'ers up against any other team's. The Kiner-Falefa signing looks 100 times better after the Durbin trade. He seems to be a way better option than DHam/Sogard/Eaton- all by himself. I think Wong will do somewhere between 2024 and 2025, so we'll be fine at catcher depth. (Contreras can catch, too.) We finally have a 1Bman, so Casas is now viewed as "depth" (or DH.) Romy and Monasterio are fine depth pieces and we now have better options at AAA than we did just a few weeks ago: Rodgers, Seigler, Thaiss/Gasper & Cheng joining Campbell, Romero, Ward & Hickey. At the risk of repeating myself, we missed out on adding one more highest quality player, but the rest or the 26, 40 and beyond look very balanced, deep and promising.

If he had a higher OBP, his speed could be a larger asset batting 2nd. If his power was higher, and he didn't K so much, batting 3rd or 4th would be okay, if those around him were pluses. He is neither. Idealy, we'd alternate Story and Abreu in the 6 slot. I guess Abreu would be fine up 5th vs RHPs and 6th vs LHPs, but Story up 5th ve LHPs is too high for me, too. Good thing we can stick Romy in the top 5, somewhere, but pushing Story to 6th or 7th can only happen if other do well or better than expected.

It was rather telling that Mullins is 26 and still has not reached AAA. soxprospects.com has him beginning the season in AA as a starter, but their summary hints at the pen being his best shot... Potential up-and-down reliever. Ceiling of a seventh-inning reliever. Intriguing arm who could move quickly if moved into a pure relief role. Needs to tighten up his command and control, but fastball/slider combination has premium bat-missing ability. Fastball especially is extremely difficult to hit when he elevates it. Has pitches to get both right- and left-handed hitters out and the type of fastball teams look for. Is currently being developed as a starter, but delivery, command profile, and injury history point to him ending up in the bullpen eventually.

He paid the differed price! He must have thought he'd get more money and or more years. Both he and Cease picked the wrong year to have off-seasons, but Cease scored a pretty good contract, anyway. I'm glad we stayed away from both.

Gallen signs 1 year deal with AZ, $22M with $14M deferred.

True. Last February, nobody thought Tolle or Early would be added to the 40. Nobody heard of deLeon. Nobody expected we'd need to trade for D May. Nobody thought twice, when we traded Priester, until he started doing well and Newcomb flamed out as a starter. I think we should be deep enough, but I see 9, and we often go to 10 or more, and that's not even counting opener games. #SP'er per season (Non openers) 14 in 2025 (3 by opener Bernardino) 10 in 2024 (not counting 4 by Whitlock, 3 by Kelly & 3 by Bernardino) 9 in 2023 but 6 by Bernardino and 9 by 7 "openers" 11 in 2022 (3 by A Davis) 10 in 2021 (all but 3 starts by 7 starters)

How many teams have 7-8-9's like these? #10 is maybe Bennett>Uberstine or some surprise. Maybe we start Kutter or Oviedo in the pen. I still think that Sandoval will be the #5, if he looks okay in ST'ing, but that is one big IF.

A peach?

I went into this winter hoping we'd focus more on quality over quantity, which was the team approach for far too long. I think we may have shortened the rotation depth a little bit, but did a great job improving the quality from the 2 slot down to maybe #7, 8 or 9 from the 2025 depth chart. That '25 list was pretty nice, and we ended up using all of them plus DMay, de Leon plus Tolle & Early- at least the ones who were not on the IL all year (Kutter & Sandoval) or for much of it (Houck & Dobbins.) On the everyday side of the roster, my wish list was for two big bats- one at 1B and one at 2B or 3B. While Contreras looks like a very good get, I don't really view him a true "big bat," so I really wanted the second one to be better than him. Durbin is not that guy. I still like the trade, but we fell short of my hopes. We didn't even really get one true big bat. (KMarte & Alonso were my top picks, but Schwarber would certainly have counted as a legit big bat. I was not all that high on Bregman, especially at that money, as a "big bat, and felt the same about Bichette.) I also did not expect the continuation of adding so much decent starters and depth over higher quality talent. We added Contreras, Durbin Kiner Falefa, Monasterio, Seigler to replace Bregman, N lowe & DHam. It was sort of like 3 for 5. IMO, we went the wrong direction in this sense on the infield. The total AAV for Contreras plus Kiner Falefa is almost what Bregman got. The total AAV of Sonny Gray plus Kiner Falefa is about the same as Bregman's. Granted, these are shorter term vs Breggie's longer deal with a NTC, but you get where I'm going with this. Once again, on the everyday side of the ledger, we went quantity over quality. On pitching we did the right thing. Quality over quantity.

Much of our SP'ewr depth traded away were traded for pitching or were prospects that would not be ready for 2026, anyway. Fitts and Clarke was depth for a top 5 SP'er. Travieso (& Jh Gracia) was a far-away SP for a top 5-6 SP'er on the team. Perales for Bennett was pretty much sideways, and maybe one could argue Perales is closer to MLB ready, but he's also closer to the IL than Bennett. Dobbins, Fajardo & Aita was one of two trades that gave up depth for an everyday player, but only Dobbins was ML ready. He was also returning from an injury. Harrison, Drohan (& DHam) for Durbin & infield depth was the other, but many had Harrison listed pretty far down the SP'er depth list and felt he was blocking Tolle & Early. (I thought he'd be in the pen for 2026.) So, compare 2025 to what MVP presented: Sure, but they already have pretty ridiculous depth. 1. Crochet = Crochet 2. Suarez > Houck 3. Gray> Buehler 4. Bello = Bello 5. Sandoval < Giolito 6. Oviedo => Fitts 7. Crawford = Crawford 8. Early > Newcomb 9. Tolle <?> Dobbins 10. Uberstine <?> Priester/Drohan/Fulmer

Haven't heard any talk of the Sox and Wilson.

Some wild cards in the Red Sox 2026 season will be... Kutter Crawford: After a very promising 2023 season that saw Crawford put up a 3.83 FIP and 1.06 WHIP, he took a step back in '24, despite leading the team in IP. The hope is he can regain the same stuff Merloni has been raving about all winter. Patrick Sandoval: You have to go back a bit farther than Crawford's timeline to find the time when Sandoval looked pretty sharp. Over 41 GS from '21-'22 he put up a 3.17 ERA/3.44 FIP/1.29 WHIP. He's done nothing in the last 3 years to show any signed he can pitch like that again, but that's what makes him a wild card. Justin Slaten: This guy doesn't seem to get the talk he maybe deserves. In his first two seasons in MLB, he has a 3.43 ERA but a 3.02 FIP and 1.04 WHIP. He got hurt, last season and saw his K/9 got from 9.4 to 6.6, so the doubts linger. He's got some nasty stuff. Let's hope he finds it, again. Tristan Casas: To me, this guy could be the answer to all our worries about the offense, and no, he does not need to have a career year. He just needs to stay healthy and repeat what he did from '23 to '24. He just turned 26, but is coming off major knee surgery and may not be ready until May or so. From '23-'24 he had a 127 OPS+ (.838 OPS.) Projected from thos 745 PAs to 650, this would be his season line: .256 33 86, with a nifty .357 OBP and .480 SLG. Marcelo Mayer: This highly touted top 4 draft pick from 2021 has dealt with a series of injuries that make us all wonder if it's an issue or just some bad luck that could pass by. He has struggled vs LHPs, even in the minors, and has to work through that issue to avoid a 2025 platoon (with Romy.) He's only 23 and still has a lot of promise with his bat, and he looked pretty decent on defense at 3B, last year. Maybe he's the 2Bman we've been waiting for for about a decade. Maybe not. Caleb Durbin: I could have counted Narvaez, too, as both were rookies in 2025, but to me Caleb is more of the wild card- perhaps just because I haven't seen him play and his height has always been a concern. Hitting .721 your rookie year is nothing to apologize for, and he had an .858 OPS in AAA, but in the lower levels, he struggled to get above .755. Maybe playing half his games in Fenway will give him a boost. One could call Contreras, Gray, Story and Chapman wild cards due to their ages, Abreu, Rafaela & Duran wild cards due to unknowns brought about by past inconsistent hitting stretches, and Bello due to his uneven metrics from '24 to '25. Tolle, Early and Campbell could also be high impact players in 2026, if they get a long enough look.

Is Justin Wilson still a Sox option?

I think this is what Cora uses as a template. He may swap Abreu and Story vs lefty-righty.

1, Duran v R/ Romy v L 2. Anthony 3. Contreras 4. Abreu v R/Story v L 5. Story v R/Abreu v L 6. Durbin 7. Mayer v R/ Duran v L 8. Narvaez 9. Rafaela

DUCK! An overripe tomato is on it's way towards you!

I can also see the Sox season going south, and I mean like Antarctica south. However, I do not think we need a perfect confluence of everybody having career or near career years to finish first or second in the ALE. There is good reason to think the Jays have a fine team, but they jumped up by 20 wins, last year. Their Pythagorean jump would have been by 14 games and finishing behind the Sox hypothetical win total. I've already beat up the Yanks in previous posts, but in short- they are aging, injury-prone, with several key players starting the season on the IL and did nothing this winter to get better. In fact, their motto is "Let's run it back." The O's made several bold moves, but started so far back, it's hard to know how high they will jump At worst the Sox stayed even, but they are hard to project, too, since they had a major turnover of players, this winter- most at the middle to bottom of the 40. They also continued their shift from Offense to defense (and pitching.) It should be a fun ALE to watch.

I think he already has te rets days planned... LOL. It doesn't matter if it's a LHP or RHP, if it's your day off, you get it. It doesn't matter if you're 10 for your last 20, either.

Durbin is less swing and miss and had a .334 OBP. That's not great, but it beats Story and vs LHPs, it beats Duran, too. Putting him up 1-2-3 would actually "lengthen the line-up more than having him 6th. IMO.

I can't see the Rangers coming close, despite the easier schedule.

I just wish Story had a better OBP.

He had a better "mix" than Tolle, at the time of his call-up and may always have one. I'm trying not to let a 4 game sample size convince me of anything, but he sure looked like a man who knew what he was doing on the mound.

No doubt, the Yanks have talent plus the promise of a Cole return, but they have some serious questions, too. Sometimes I think Sox fans apply different criteria for Yankees than our own Sox players. I don't have to guess how fans think of our own pitchers who missed the previous season: it's on full display, every winter, yet it seems like Cole is pegged to win the Cy Young and lead the Yanks to an improved record. How about Rodon? No doubt- a damn good pitcher, when healthy. He's 33 and has been healthy 3 of the last 4 seasons, so no questions here, right? Same thing with 32 year old Fried. Pencil both in for 30+ starts. Gil looks very promising- I agree-pencil him in, too, despite just 40 GS in 3 seasons. I wish Schlitter was on our team, and his 14 GS in 2025 -his rookie year- and that's more than Early had. I agree he's more of a sure thing than Tolle & Early, but is he a sure bet? Some of us expect regression from Chapman & Whitlock, but is there a reason to expect Bednar to improve? The Yanks had 8 players with 19+ HRs, last season and all are back. That's scary as hell to a fanbase panicking about our team's lack of power. Does a guy who never hit over 17 HRs before last year's 34 (Grisham) really project as a better power bat than Abreu? Maybe- maybe not. How about Bellinger? Is he the model of consistency? Here are his OPS numbers the 4 seasons prior to his ,813 in 2025: .789>.542>,654>.881>.751. Ben Rice looks for real, and maybe Volpe takes a step up. Chisholm hit more than twice as many HRs than 2024. Goldschmidt was in severe decline before they brought him back. Wells is more proven than Narvaez, but they are about the same age and have about the same career OPS. I hear a lot of expecting regression from Narvaez but not Wells. I do think the Yanks look tough, but they have a lot questions- like we do.

I'd have been shocked if you said anything less negative. Tomorrow the sun will rise.

I kinda liked Mayer at 2B, too, because of the platoon option with Romy, and also that Durbin looked real good at 3B, last year. I think a RHB up second makes the most sense, and modern line-up philosophy says put your best batter up 2nd. Since Anthony is leading off, I'm thinking Contreras is our second bast bat, at least v L or as a batter with pretty even splits (.791 career v R.) Story has some speed, but he doesn't get on base enough. Duran or Abreu? Both lefties. Contreras up 4th makes a lot of sense, too. Which of these is better? 1. Anthony L 2. Contreras R 3. Duran L (v R) Romy R (v L) 4. Abreu L 5. Story R 6. Durbin R (v R) Duran (v L) 7. Mayer L (v R) Durbin R (v L) 8. Narvaez R 9. Rafaela R or 1. Anthony L 2. Durbin R 3. Duran L 4. Contreras R 5. Abreu L 6. Story R 7. Mayer/Romy L/R 8. Narvaez R 9. Rafaela R