moonslav59

I see him about to repeat the same evaluation of next year's Yankee team "on paper" and assume hardly anybody gets hurt. No doubt, if the Yanks just had normal injuries, this year and in previous years, they'd have won a lot more. That's one reason why they always look so good on paper, but keep coming up short. Why should that change, if they bring back the same injury-prone players or replace some with bulky players from the same mold? The other reason they keep coming up short is that being from NY, they get a lot of attention, and maybe some of their players just aren't and never were as good as the hype made them out to be.

Bloom was also bashed for not picking up pen help and then crucified when Robles and Davis struggled early on. His post deadline additions of Iggy & Shaw were also masterful.

That's just not true. Our farm was on the rise before we drafted Mayer and others. The trades the Yanks made gave up a lot of that "depth" you speak of. It's hard to imagine giving up almost a dozen of your best depth prospects and still think you have better depth than the Sox. The Sox had a lot of mid to lower level prospects have good to monster years. Sure, a few did not or got hurt, but we have some nice depth, now. We also just saw some very nice talent graduate from prospect level (Houck, Whitlock & Dalbec). I think not mentioning Duran & Yorke is telling. Our depth includes Bello, Seabold, Jordan, Groome, Jimenez, Mata, Wilkelman, Song, Winckowski and more.

You still have Stanton, Judge, Andujar and whatever big bulky new injury-prone players Cashman adds.

I think it is easier to evaluate how good pitchers are in the minors vs in college, and the Rays focus on this area and excel at it. You're right: it's not always about drafting and IFAs.

Hard to expect a big change overnight, but there are some encouraging signs. Houck & Whitlock Seabold & Winckowski Bello, Wilkelman & Walters Groome & Mata Murphy & Song I think this group is as good as we've seen in several years.

I’m not sure it should be easy, but it shouldn’t be this hard. I still count young pitchers acquired by trade, but I can understand not doing so. I’m really high on Bello.

Last year, Stanton, Judge and Andujar played less than half the games. Several other everyday players missed time, too. Don't pretend the injuries have only occurred to your pitchers. It's been an ongoing reality for several years in a row. Didn't Stanton miss pretty much all of 2019? That's almost as bad as losing the 3 you mentioned, this year, but you had other injuries that year, too- not just to pitchers. I think Gregorius & Judge missed a bunch of games...maybe Hicks, too. The Yanks set a record in 2019. Have you forgotten that? https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/yankees-set-mlb-record-for-most-injured-players-in-a-single-season-as-gio-urshela-hits-il/ Now, you act like it should be a surprise. I think your GM or your new GM will have to change his roster building strategy to address the amount of injury-prone players on your roster, year-after-year. You can point to how great your team is on paper, but if they never play, what good are they?

Pivetta has been hot and cold pretty much all year. He's risen to the occasion a few times. Need Big Nate to come through, first. One game at a time.

Game 3 is the big game. Eovaldi is on extra rest. Why push him back? Pivetta may work out better than ERod, especially since both would be on short rest. I trust Cora. Interesting choice.

2 games prove nothing. BTW, he hit better than the Rays. (.777 to .749) That's a big thing. They scored more due to better timely hitting and better baserunning, but we hit better. Want evidence? Look at game 2. LOL. BTW, we blew the Rays away in SP'er fWAR (14.6 to 10.8).

That wasn't my point. My point was about why you'd expect good health, when you never get it.

Easier said than done. I've been hearing this for over a decade. Houck may be the first big influence we've had in a long time. Whitlock, too. Seabold and Bello?

Barnes makes $9.4M the next 2 years in lux dollars, which includes the buy out money for the 3rd option year. Yes, that's close to $10M, but not quite. It looks bad, now, but I wouldn't write him off. I would not write Sale off either, but they both are big question marks. Losing Price's deal next winter will help. Losing Richards, Ottavino, Andriese and Perez, this winter, gives us a nice chance to improve without adding any more salary than these guys combined. The ERod cost and choice is a tough one.

It's not working. I'm no big fan of ERod, but we win when he pitches. Wins and losses are not meaningless. Never said that. It's not just the winning percentage. His other stats are not nearly as bad as you guys make him out to be.

Did you really not expect any injuries? Was the loss of these 3 really the main reason you guys missed out on greatness? If I had guessed, I'd have said Stanton would have missed more time than he did.

I didn't say the Rays weren't any good. What changed? We now have home field advantage and momentum. The Rays do the little things better than we do, but we do a few of big things better. That was true all year.

Let's just pretend that Sox winning over 70% of ERod's starts from 2018-2021 was all luck, incredible run support and whatever else we can dream up. No doubt, he has and has had issues- defense, too much nibbling and early exits, and a body language that impresses nobody, but he probably has the best team winning record in MLB since 2018. His stats are pretty good- not best winning % good, but still pretty damn good. All of this in no way changes the fact that I have very little confidence in him, at this moment in time. Hopefully, that will change, soon.

Lots of changes for a team that was destined for greatness, this year.

My point was, those past games matter to your opinion on the Sox chances at making the playoffs and/or beating the Yanks in the play-in, but they don't matter in your opinion of ERod. I just sense a change in criteria or a moving of the goalposts a bit. Just my opinion. Not overanalyzing.

As much as playoff heroics might change some of our opinions on a player's value or ideas on trading, DFA'ing or keeping our players, it really should not matter much- one way or another. We have a few big choices in early winter and one choice by JD that matters a lot. The JD choice: We've beaten this one to death several times over and over. It really makes a big difference to the Sox. Personally, I think JD does NOT opt out, but it is not a slam dunk. He may want a longer security blanket. The Schwarber Choice: He has a mutual option and will certainly turn down the $11.5M option.) The team options: No on Richards ($1.5M buy out over $10M option) No on Perez ($500K buy out over $6M option) Yes on Vaz ($7M option over $250K buy out) The QO choice: Do we offer ERod a QO, and if so, does he accept it? This is also a very important choice for the Sox and perhaps by ERod. It's a one year offer. I think we make the offer and he accepts it, in hopes he has a big 2022 season. The Rule 5 Choices: We will likely protect 4-6 players from this list: (This is NOT the full list.) Brayan Bello Cole Brannen Pedro Castellanos Kole Cottam Kutter Crawford Jeter Downs Tyler Esplin Durbin Feltman Frank German Devlin Granberg Gilberto Jimenez Kaleb Ort Tyreque Reed Victor Santos John Schreiber Thaddeus Ward Josh Winckowski After all of this, we will begin signing free agents, making trades and deciding who to keep or let go. (Some mat be DFA'd to make room for Rule 5 additions.) Special consideration may be given to players that see their team control end after 2022. Those players are: JD Martinez Eovaldi Kike Vazquez Plawecki The arbs: Devers (2nd or 3 arbs) Renfroe (3 of 4) Verdugo (1 of 3) Pivetta (1 of 3) Arroyo (1 of 3) Taylor (1 of 4) Plawecki (4 of 4) Brasier (2 of 3) Cordero (2of 3)

So, you were right, then? Those past games mattered and we lost the slot in the playoffs and the play-in game to the Yanks? Those past games (some the exact same games as the above example) don't count for ERod, because it fits your pre-determined opinion that he sucks and will continue to suck, right?

Dude, it was a 54 game season for JD (237 PAs), and you jumped at it like it was the only evidence that mattered. You are the one who uses age more than anyone I know. You use LeMahieu's 50 game sample size as if it is everything. I'm not doubting he can hit .300 in 2022, but in the overall sense of his age-related trend, he should continue declining- NOT from his 2021 numbers but in the context of his bell curve by age. OPS by age: .663 at 25 .746 at 26 .911 at 27 (could be viewed as an outlier) .783 at 28 (He had an .824 stretch in a 339 PA stretch.) .749 at 29 (He had an .809 stretch in 163 PA stretch.) .893 at 30 (might show maybe 2016 was not an outlier) 1.011 at 31 in just 216 PAs (Seeing what he did is similar stretches at age 28 & 29, one wonders if this was sustainable over 600 PAs) .711 at age 32 (2nd largest sample size season of his career) Let's look at 2 season samples: .667 '13-'14 .828 '15-'16 .767 '17-'18 .922 '19-'20 (.831 '19-'21) Jump 2013: .708 '14-'15 .844 '16-'17 .825 '18-'19 .784 '20-'21 (This one looks more like a typical bell curve.) I'd expect something like .790 to .850 in 2022, assuming he's healthy, and more likely near .840. JD is less than a year older than LeMahieu, and I'd be interested to know what you project for him, next year. JD's 2 year numbers: .893 '14-'15 .985 '16-'17 .985 '18-'19 .816 '20-'21 (To me, his curve seems tighter and more to form- more predictable, perhaps.) I'd expect something between .800 and .880 for JD, next year but likely closer to.870.

So, a 16 game sample size followed by 2 bad games, means very little to nothing? Not long ago, you were arguing that what the Sox had done vs the Yanks, days, weeks and even 2 months ago mattered. You implied we had little chance based on those games vs them.

I'm very confident with big Nate on the mound, but every month, this season, I can dig up a 2-4 game sample size that looks scary. Sure, ERod and other Sox starters have more of those sample sizes than Eovaldi, but my point is about not judging pitchers on just 2 game sample sizes. 7.15 ERA in 2 consecutive starts in April (6.06 in 3) 6.46 in 3 straight May starts. (5.79 in 6 straight April>May) 4.41 in 3 June starts. 10.80 7/31 + 8/6 (6.35 in 5 July-Aug starts) 11.74 in 2 end of Sept starts (7.82 in 3 straight) This is not meant to raise doubts on Nate. It is meant to point out that most pitchers have 2-3 game rough patches several times a season.