moonslav59

DD traded a lot of guys with similar MOs as Dalbec and Houck- not just highly sought after prospects. He deserves credit for holding onto the 3 guys that turned out better than just about everyone he traded, except maybe Moncada and Kopech.

I agree that JD does not opt out. If we don't trade him, the answer to Schwarber should be no, IMO. The Bogey extension is important, but may not be addressed over the winter. Of course, if this is something Bloom thinks needs immediate attention, this choice has to be made before we can look at other choices- agreed. (Let's say we trade Bogey for a pitcher and sign Iggy to play SS, then bringing back Schwarber's bat makes more sense, since we drop a lot of offense at the SS position.) I doubt we address Devers, this winter, but that is just my opinion. Either way, no matter what we do with JD, Bogey and Devers, our great need to improve pitching does not change. The amount of money we have to spend, might change, and another priority need might arise, if one is traded, but nothing changes with the pitching, unless we trade open of these guys for a pitcher. Extending Raffy without adding some pitchers means we are worse, next year.

Sink or swim, I see us starting the year with Dalbec as our FT 1Bman. We don't sign anyone to back him up, unless the utility guy we sign can play first. We count on Casas to be ready, if Dalbec struggles for a long time. We may bring Schwarber back, and have him work out at 1B over the winter, but I don't think the money is there for that luxury. I'd be fine trading JD, if it meant we could sign Schwarber, as long as we don't end up paying more than $3-6M of JD's deal. That might bring the cost of Schwarber to about the same as what JD makes, next year. Adding Iggy would make me feel a lot better about Arroyo at 2B and having a strong back-up at SS (over Arauz). To me, it's about pitching, pitching, pitching and if possible, improving the defense (Iggy). SP1 _____ SP2 Eovaldi SP3 _____ (ERod?) SP4 Sale SP5 Pivetta SP6 Seabold RP1 Houck RP2 Whitlock RP3 _____ RP4 Barnes RP5 Taylor RP6 Brasier RP7 DHern RP8 Sawamura/Davis/Valdez OR SP1 _____ SP2 Eovaldi SP3 Whitlock SP4 Sale SP5 Pivetta SP3 Seabold RP1 Houck RP2 _____ RP3 _____ RP4 Barnes RP5 Taylor RP6 Brasier RP7 DHern RP8 Sawamura/Davis/Valdez 3 Solid pitchers needed- minimum.

You really thought I've been claiming we are in decline and heading towards a cliff?

I'm not saying there is no merit to having both Schwarber and JD on the 2022 roster. Yes, we can create some complex chart whereby we can play Schwarber, JD, Dalbec, Verdugo, Renfroe, Kike and Arroyo 8-9 out of 10 games to accommodate keeping Schwarber at a cost that will surely cut into what we can spend on pitching, and I ask why do that? Some things have changed since we added Schwarber at the deadline: 1) We went from having 4-5 SP'er we could basically count on to 1 or maybe 2, now that ERod stepped up. 2) We lose Richards, Perez, Ottavino and maybe ERod from this roster and have a winter spending budget that necessitates adding 2-4 pitchers. 3) We thought we needed a 1Bman, when we traded for Schwarber. We may not need one after what Dalbec showed us after July 30th. 4) We had doubts about Verdugo and JD on July 30th. Both were sub .700 for an extended period of time, when we traded for KS. Both look more solid, now and don't look like we need to hedge our bets on for 2022. 5) Kike and Renfroe only solidified their hold on FT roles for 2022, after the KS trade. 6) Only Arroyo remains a doubt for 2022, but almost everyone wants to keep Kike in CF, next year, even if it means bringing back Iggy or signing a 2Bman, this winter. So, Kike in CF means platooning Verdugo/Renfroe or squeezing them out of OF playing time, so Schwarber can get some games in there. Sure, it's great to hedge our bets with a deepened bench, but I don't want any of these guys sitting on the bench, unless it's their regularly scheduled day off- maybe 5 games a year. The only exceptions might be Arroyo and Dalbec vs a few RHPs. Of course, I'd rather have Scharbers bat in the line-up over Dalbec and or Arroyo, but taking away low cost capable players away from the line-up comes at a heavy financial cost. It's not just answering the question, "Is the gain worth it?" The overriding question, IMO, is WHERE can we spend a limited winter spending budget to bring the most bang for the buck? All our starting pitchers are healthy, and before yesterday, we were all agreeing we have but one SP'er we can trust. For the love of God! I'm sorry for getting overly dramatic, but for the life of me, I'm thinking every penny, save maybe a couple for a utility IF'er like maybe Iggy, should and needs to be spent on pitching. Just bringing back ERod will add $10M out of maybe $40M Bloom will have to spend- and that just keeps that one rotation slot even. Much is being said of expanding the roles and IP'd by Whitlock and Houck, and how that can fill much of our winter pitching needs, and I don't disagree, but let's face it, we are not adding 2 new pitchers with those two. At best, we are adding maybe 150 IP combined from 2021 to 2022. That's like adding one solid pitcher. If we keep them both in the pen, a possible scenario, we won't be adding much more than 50-100 IP from the two combined. IMO, we need an ace or a very solid #2, and with Eovaldi's deal up after 2022, I'm leaning towards an ace. That's $25-30M right there. That's it- the whole budget: $27M SP'er +$10M ERod $3M Iggy We can't even replace Ottavino's innings. How do we squeeze $15-18M a year for Schwarber into $40M and upgrade the staff like we need to? Don't offer ERod a QO? Don't sign an ace? Move Houck and Whitlock to the rotation and pray that works, while filling 3-4 pen slots with the $18M left over after signing Schwarber and Iggy? Maybe. I'd prefer to spend on pitching. I'd love to have Schwarber back, and if Henry okays us spending close to $55M, this winter, then count me in.

More importantly, to me, he chose to keep Devers, Dalbec & Houck.

The Houston area is very upset with the game times.

2022 End of Team Control Ottavino Richards (no on option) Perez (no on option) Robles Santana Shaw (Marwin, Iggy & Andriese already gone) QO? ERod Opt Out? JD (no?) Schwarber (yes) Again, that's a lot of money off the books and only Schwarber and maybe ERod needing serious consideration for replacement by addition to the roster. Let's say 7 slots become open (Schwarber plus the 6 FAs). We replace 5-6 with Rule 5 protection players: Bello Santos Winckowski Downs Maybe 1 or 2 from Feltman, Crawford That leaves room for 1-2 outside additions before you have to start trading or DFA'ing bubble players players: 1 from Plawwecki, Hernandez/Wong Davis Potts Rosario Arauz Cordero Sawamura

I agree. His whole "end the Babying thing" immediately is just not how things are or should be done. I think we handled Whitlock and Houck just right. If one is to start, next year, we shouldn't expect more than 140-150 IP, depending on how well and efficient they are pitching. It's more about pitches thrown than IP. There was talk early on, how we were overusing Barnes, as he was heading towards a record season of IP'd, but if you looked at his pitch counts, he was near norm or below it. (Maybe that wasn't a good example, since he imploded, but certainly babying him was not what caused that.) He said the same about Sale. Take the gloves off.

They should have moved the time to 7 pm, once the Sox-Rays slot went away.

Yaz started his first, and he started the Official ALDS thread, so I think we should differ to his thread.

Had he made many more pitches, he likely wouldn't have gone 2 innings.

Some of the players still have time to add value, but it sure looks like most of the highly-touted prospects under-achieved. That doesn't mean the next ones traded will, too. Kopech seems like he'll be alright. Not all the guys DD added did well, either, but no doubt, several were difference makers. Are you for trading Duran & Casas?

It's debatable on what the cost was to get Rizzo, but I think everyone would agree they paid way more than we did for KS. The Yanks gave away a lot of farm depth. Jacko will claim they were all duplicate values or also-rans, but I beg to differ. MLBTR wrote this... Alcantara and Vizcaino makes for a solid return on-paper, since Rizzo will hit free agency at the end of the season. The Cubs seem to have done well in adding Alcantara and Vizcaino, both of whom ranked among the top 15 minor league talents in the organization on Baseball America’s midseason update. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs also ranked the duo highly, slotting Alcantara as the sport’s #120 overall prospect entering the year. Alcantara, 19, draws praise for his projectable frame and chance to grow into big power. A center fielder now, he might grow out of the position, but he’s a high-upside addition to the lower levels of the Cubs’ farm system. Alcantara’s playing in the rookie level Arizona Complex League, so he’s years from the majors — similar to the group of players Chicago picked up from the Padres in last winter’s Yu Darvish trade. Vizcaino’s a nearer-term addition. He’s topped out at High-A, but the changeup specialist is already 24 years old and was selected to the 40-man roster last offseason. He still has a pair of minor league option years remaining after this season. Longenhagen suggests his delivery likely points to a bullpen future, but he’s been a starting pitcher to this point in his career. Vizcaino hasn’t pitched much this season due to injury, but he tossed 115 innings of 4.38 ERA ball across two levels of A-ball back in 2019.

Improving the D was the mantra- not getting to great defense overnight. I can't see us paying Schwarber and JD $35M to DH and close our eyes when they take the field. You don't pay $16M a year for Schwarber with the idea he can DH in a year. You just wait until next year to pay for a DH, or you trade JD. We are not bringing back Richards, Perez, Ottavino, Marwin, Andriese and Santana, so this will not be "the same team." The ERod question might make a big dent, too. (JD will likely be back, unless traded.) We have a wonderful chance to improve on the players we lose, add 40 man roster depth with our Rule 5 protectees, and maybe make a trade or two. The winter after this is way more problematic, despite losing Price's contract money. We have Bogey, JD, Eovaldi, Kike, Vaz (assuming we take his $7M option and don't trade him) and others. These guys will be much harder to replace at the same cost.

I'd love to see Iggy back on the cheap. With Arroyo's health status, he could play a lot. I could see him being the only "major" non pitcher addition, this winter. We might lose Schwarber and not replace him. The focus could be 95% on pitching.

You don't have to convince me. At times, I felt like I was the only one defending ERod. BTW, that 73% K number was awesome, and it was helped by that 13 foul off AB.

A point also needs to be made about the impact of our younger players on the 2021 season, and how that should be viewed as a sign of a brighter future. .793 Age 25 and under .767 Ages 26-30 .789 Ages 31-35 Age Player OPS 24 Devers .890 (Best on team and not yet at prime years) 25 Verdugo .777 26 Dalbec .792 26 Arroyo .769 28 Bogey .863 (Peak of prime in '22) 29 Renfroe .816 & Kike .786 (in peak prime) Pitching: ERA/OPS Against Age 3.10/.659 25 and under 4.73/.763 26-30 4.18/.761 31-35 24 DHern 3.38 (40 IP) 25 Whitlock 1.96 (73) 25 Houck 3.52 (69) 28 Pivetta 4.53 (155) 28 Davis, Rios, Taylor

If they aren't, they may not get a shot to have a negative impact- like say Duran did, this season.

We spent about $20M on Richards, Perez, Marwin, Andriese and Santana. We could replace all of these players from within the system, so anything we spend to fill one or more of their slots could represent a "major addition," especially if spent on just 1-2 FAs. Replacing Schwarber, Ottavino, Iggy, Shaw and maybe ERod won't be as easy, but they weren't cheap, last year, either. There's no reason to think we can't at least break even on these 4-5 players.

Schwarber was a lot cheaper than Rizzo and better. Rizzo was at .775 from 2020 on. He was not worth what it would have taken to get him. Yes, his defense is much better than Bobby Dee's. To me, it wasn't about Schwarber being an afterthought. We kicked the tires in Rizzo, and the cost was too high. We didn't just get Schwarber as 1B insurance either. JD was not the same old JD (.682 in previous 69 PAs), and Verdugo was struggling at .749 on trade day (.622 in his previous 138 PAs). Of course the deals look better in hindsight than foresight, but I think you are thinking Rizzo was the Rizzo from pre-2020 and are discounting just what a force Schwraber was becoming in 2021 as he reached peak prime years.

Rizzo's numbers (about .775 from 2020-2021) on July 30th were barely better than Dalbec's (.722 from 2020-July 30, 2021.) Rizzo was not free, either. The move worked in hindsight with Dalbec, but Schwarber was obatined with 1B in mind, too. I'm not sure why you call him an "after thought." The guy was a stud before we got him. The 2 week wait was known ahead of time, and we did suffer those two weeks, but even had Rizzo hit his OPS before the trade, he was not worth it. Foresight and hindsight. IMO, of course. Schwarber was beyond meteoric, so yes, I exaggerated by understating his accomplishments before coming to us. Thank you for correcting me. 1.383 OPS in 88 PAs before going on the IL. (1.061 in 164 PAs before IL) .957 after coming off the IL in 168 PAs) What a let down, he was.

17 pitches Sunday. 15 pitches Monday. He was not overused. (IP'd can be deceiving.) One could also look at ERod pitch count and proclaim, "He was nibbling, again," but that 15 pitch AB with like 9 foul-offs in a row was behind those numbers.

For some reason, he was not on MLB's list, until I clicked all players.

Playoff ERA Leaders with 6.1+ IP: 0.00 Logan Webb SFG 0.00 L McCullers HOU 1.59 Scherzer LAD 2.57 Houck 2.61 Eovaldi 3.12 Pivetta