moonslav59

Why not call it Whithouck?

I doubt both Houck and Whitlock start, so the other could close. I'd have Barnes, Taylor and others ahead of DHern, but your comment was well-taken. My only optimistic view on our pen is that I've felt this way about our pen for many of the last few years, and they keep surprising me. Have we got lucky? Is Cora a genius at pen usage? Are our pitchers better than we think they are? Houck/Whitlock Barnes Taylor Diekman Strahm Brasier Sawamura Davis (no options) DHern/Bazardo/Valdez/Feltman/ZKelly of a converted AAA starter: Winckowski, Crawford, Seabold, Bello, Groome

Henry has gone 2-3 years without major spending, before. I know that does not mean he will follow the same pattern and spend big, again. He might still be serious about success, but is looking for a different method to get there- a slow and steady approach without taking major long term risks, in which the vast majority of ours have been failures to varying degrees. I'm skeptical, too, and next winter should be the major test.

In 2021, it sure looked that way, but he had under 300 PAs. He's better than Arroyo.

...and we ended up with $10M Richards and $5M Perez in the pen, too.

...and maybe Springer & Biggio, too

Good points, but they also have Berrios for a full season and signed Kikuchi, this winter. Rotation: Ryu, Berrios, Gausman, Manoah & Kikuchi Their infield is insane! Guerrro (1B), Biggio (2B), Bichette (SS) and Chapman (3B) with Santiago Espinal at utility. Their OF is not too shaby either: Gurriel, Springer & Teoscar Hernandez (Grichuk as the #4) Jansen is their catcher. Their pen is not great. OPS in 2021 1.002 Vlad .907 Springer .870 THern .828 Bichette .785 Gurriel .781 Espinal .772 Jansen .716 Chapman (.808 career) .703 Grichuk .678 Biggio (.762 career)

I think would probably be starting, even if Sale was healthy. 1. Eovaldi 2. Sale 3. Pivetta 4. Hill 5. Wacha

Impressive line-up!

I am certainly skeptical about Dalbec's future production, but I am about Voit and Torres, too. It's all projections and speculations, and Dalbec has put up some pretty decent numbers in his first 156 games: .243 33 94 (.308/.511/.819) His OBP in the minors was .362, and it was .374 in college. There is hope he can improve on that while not losing the power he has already proven to have. Unlike Voit, he has stayed healthy and looks to be in good shape. Now, granted, Voit has had some amazing short stretches of awesome power, AND he gets on base (.357 career OBP). No doubt, if he is 100% healthy, he has the current edge over Dalbec and has twice the PAs of ML experience. It took him 5 years to double what Dalbec did in 156 games, so you can see why his value is low. Then, look at the ages for the following numbers and think years of team control... 162 game avg: .267 34 94 Voit (.867 OPS) ages 26-30 (He just turned 31/ 3 yrs of team control) .243 34 98 Dalbec (.819) ages 25-26 (About to turn 27/ 5 yrs of team contol)

I know they have limitations, and I don't agree with all of their evaluations, but they do a pretty good job at something that is very difficult to do. If you look at all the trades made, so far, many are very close to even or at minor or moderate overpay status. So, now you think Voit is better than BTV says they are? Didn't you call him a bag of s*** a few times over the last 2 years?

No medical staff can project a broken rib. I think they expected a lost year for TJS.

True, but when we signed Eovaldi to that money, he had never pitched like this, before. His highest ERA+ was 114 back with Miami in 2013, and that was just for 103 IP. He blew away his best FIP by leading the league at 2.79. His career FIP before 2021 was 3.97. And yes, I understand signing really good pitchers will cost $20-25M a year and more for the very best, but the guys you listed did not "wow" me, at all. Now, some of the guys traded for did.

Sounds solid.

BTV has this trade as dead even: Torres, King & Garcia for Duran

I chose them to single out, because of the enormous and unprecedented gap between their player budget and the second highest spender over the last few years combined. No doubt, they have won more than others, but I do feel rings are a big part of the package. They finally got one in the mess of the 2020 season, so "yeah" for them! I can see how many non Sox fans may have looked at our spending to win rings in much the same way, but we never blew ALL the others away in spending. Should that matter? I think it does. I'm fine, if others don't think the same way.

It sure looks like a mess, but I'd be a hypocrite to criticize the extension after liking it, at the time. Yes, I knew the risk. Yes, I calculated the value by assuming one missed season, and I still liked the idea of keeping one of the top 3 pitchers in MLB on our staff for 5 years- not 7, 8 or 10, like others are getting.

Pipe dream implies I want it to happen. I don't. "Believe it when you see it?" You did see it- 3 times under Henry. We did have fire sales three in the last decade: The Dodger dump 2014: we dumped almost our entire rotation and best pen piece (Lester, Lackey, Doubront, Peavy & Andrew Miller. We also traded Stephen Drew, Jonny Gomes and Kelly Johnson that summer.) The 2020 deadline (Moreland, Workman & Hembree, Pillar, Osich) though nothing spectacular like Crawford, AGon & Beckett. I seriously doubt it happens, but I believe I have seen it, often enough.

I'm not saying I'm happy we did not "overpay" for anyone. I suggested maybe the Baez offer may have worked, had we topped it, and I realize "overpaying" free agents has been the nature of the beast for decades, but when you look at the success-failure rate of most mega signings and even many of the second tier signings, it's not pretty. Maybe finding another way to consistently win, by building and maintaining the farm while spending on shorter term FAs to fill the gaps might morph into something special every few years. To be honest, I'm not happy. I've watched a flurry of signings and trades over the last few days. Some of the trades do not look like overpays, but I get the idea of holding onto precious prospects. I don't want 2020 to happen again. My feelings are conflicted and sometimes contradictory. It's hard to accept we did nothing major and haven't even spoken to Devers, yet. There is still time on him, and maybe they want to see if he'll be our 3Bman or 1Bman of the future by watching 2022. Seeing what Freeman got, I'm not sure the money offer changes much for 1Bmen. Had we signed Baez, I'd have been okay watching Bogey go- by trade or free agency, depending on our playoff hopes at the deadline.

I mentioned that idea a few days ago, and in terms of the long term outlook, it could make a ton of sense. Fans would be irate for a while, but if Henry & Bloom spent large and long on Devers and some free agents, next winter, maybe forgiveness would win out.

I don't disagree, but maybe the A's are not interested in our prospects not names Casas, Mayer or Yorke. Many of the trades I suggested on that site were voted down from the A's side very handily. Many from the Sox side, too, especially if I included Bello. Can you tell me which free agent you think Bloom should have offered $1M more (assuming he'd take it)?

Where did I say he's a lock to be a FT 1Bman. I'm comparing him to a guy you've been roasting alive for years- Voit and looking at the context of who the A's would prefer and why BTV values Dalbec 3 times more than Voit.

I would not even consider trading Dalbec for Voit. I'd be lmao! Sure, he's an unknown, but he has more years of control and could still improve, especially his OBP & D.

The rings are not the only thing I look at, but it felt like an appropriate thing to say about a team that appears to be trying to buy rings after rings. I've also spoken to this view as it pertains to the Sox and Sox ownership. I think more pride can be taken when you win it all without being the top spender, and even more pride, if you are not at top 3 or 5 or 7... spender, something the Sox have yet to accomplish. Sure Miami and their fans loved to see the LeBron & Co come to town and bring rings, but the rest of America was shaking their heads at the whole process. As to my promise land: I'd love to see sustained winning, with maybe one off year scattered here and there, but when the team reaches a point where the odds seem best, then spend more to make it happen- not all out like 2018, but just spend some cash to improve your chances. Maybe we win- maybe we don't, but making an effort, when close, keeps me content as a fan. I'm not upset at Henry and Bloom. I can see why they do not think "the time" is now. I get the argument that we came so close in 2021, and maybe "the time" was then, and you never know, if you will come that close in a long time, but to me, that team had too many holes to fix by buying pieces to fill, and trading prospects for pieces just harms the longer outlook. I realize this sounds wishy-washy and maybe a bit contradictory, but sometimes things don't all line up all neatly and ordered. It's how I feel about the Sox. I had wished we'd sign at least one guy long term, but when I look at all the biggest contracts given out, this winter, none jump out at me as one I can get mad at Bloom/Henry for not offering more. Maybe I need to re-adjust my thinking on valuing FAs. Maybe Bloom & Henry do. Maybe they know the value and will one day offer it, but just feel like the timing is not right, this season. I trust they know more than I do.

...and tell me the owners are losing money!