moonslav59

While I had wished we did better than Sonny Gray, this point is subjective. fWAR Projections in the ALE #1: Crochet 5.7, Cease 3.8, Fried 3.6, Bradish 3.1, McClanahan 2.9 #2: Gray 3.9, Gausman 2.8, Rasmussen 2.8, Rogers 2.4, Rodon 2.2 ***As you can see, these projections have Gray as the second best ace in the ALE- ahead of Cease, Fried, Bradish and McClanahan! Hell, Bello is just 0.2 away from Rodon as the 5th best #2 in the ALE! #3: Bieber 2.5, Pepiot 2.1, Bello 2.0, Baz 2.0, Cole 1.9 #4: Ponce 2.2, Schlitter 1.8, Matz 1.7, Sandoval 1.6, Kremer 1.3 #5: Yesavage 2.1, Warren 1.5, Crawford 1.1, Boyle 1.0, Wells 0.9 *** Our 3-4-5 slots are all middle of the pack. SP Depth: Early 1.0, Berrios 1.0, Gil 1.0, Povish 0.8, Seymour 0.8, Tolle 0.7, Oviedo 0.6, Harrison 0.5 ***We are the only ALE team with more than 1 depth starter over 0.5, and we have FOUR! As much as having a better #2 SP'er would have been nice, our rotation and rotation depth is solid from top to bottom, and even below the bottom with Uberstine, Drohan, Sandlin, Mullins, Gamboa, Bennett, Holobetz & Rivera on the arm. Our pitching is fine. We need a big bat- RHB would be best or one with good splits vs LHPs. I've given up hoping for 2, and I guess Contreras is good enough to equal Refsnyder and Lowe's losses. We need to replace the Devers/Bregman loss. We need a 2Bman or 3Bman. It can be 2B/3B big bat- all in one add. To me, we are one huge addition away from being better than 2025. KMarte would do it for me. Bregman or Bichette would get us close to even- maybe better. Suarez, Viento or Donovan would need a Lodolo to make us better.

I lived in Mexico City for over 4 years. I can appreciate that. HOU also has a huge Asian population, so lots of Indian, Vietnamese and other great Asian spots to eat, too. That's about it. It's been 80 all week. While that's better than snow and ice, there are about 6 months of unbearable heat, here. Good thing we have Sebago Lake for the sumemrs.

Fangraphs fWAR Projections: TOR: C: 5.2 (Kirk 4.5/Hein 0.7) >>Sox 2.4 1B: 5.1 (Guerrero 5.0) >> Sox 2.2 2B: 2.6 (Clement 1.1/Schneider 1.0/Jimenez 0.5) > Sox 2.3 SS: 3.3 (Gimenez 2.3)> Sox 2.0 3B:3.1 (Barger 2.0/ Clement 1.1)> Sox 2.0 They beat us at all 5, here. LF: 2.0 (Lukes 1.3) < 3.0 Sox CF: 2.2 (Varsho 1.9) <<5.9 Sox RF: 2.3 (Springer 1.0/Santander 0.7)<2.8 Sox DH: 2.1 (Springer 1.4) >1.7 Sox We beat them at the OF+DH slots. SP 15.1 (Cease 3.8, Gausman 2.8, Bieber 2.5, Ponce 2.2, Yesavage 2.1, Berrios 1.0, Tiederman 0.4) They have a nice 5 and 6, but some are questionable- like ours are.) RP: 3.5 (Hoffman 1.1, Varland 0.7, Garcia 0.6, Rogers & nance 0.3, Fisher & Lauer 0.1 & nobody else above zero) Everyday players 27.4 to 21.8 They got us beat at a few slots, but our pitching wins 22 to 18.6. Team Totals: 51.2 LAD 46.3 NYY 46.0 NYY & ATL 45.0 SEA 43.4 NYM 43.1 PHI 42.9 BOS 42.7 BAL 41.3 HOU 41.1 SDP 40.9 KCR 40.7 DET 40.4 MIL

Fangraphs fWAR Projections: NYY: C: 4.8 (Wells 3.7) >Sox 2.4 1B: 2.5 (Rice 2.2) > Sox 2.2 2B: 3.8 (Chisolm 3.4) > Sox 2.3 SS: 3.0 (Volpe 2.3/Caballero 0.6)> Sox 2.0 3B: 2.3 (McMahon 1.5/Rosario 0.6)> Sox 2.0 They beat us at all 5, here. LF: 2.0 (Dominguez 1.7) < 3.0 Sox CF: 3.6 (Grisham 2.6) <5.9 Sox RF: 6.7 (Judge 6.5)> 2.8 Sox DH: 1.5 (Stanton 1.1) <1.7 Sox We are bout even on the OF=DH slots. SP 13.0 (Fried 3.6, Rodon 2.2 (on IL) Cole 1.9 (ret from IL) Schlitter 1.8, Warren 1.5, Gil 1.0, Schmidt 0.3) RP: 3.1 (Bednar 1.2, Doval & Cruz 0.8, Bird 0.2, Headrick & Blackburn 0.1 & nobody else above zero) They got us beat at a few slots, but our pitching wins 22 to 16.1. They need Rodon & Cole to return from injury to just keep their staff close to ours.

Fangraphs fWAR Projections: NYY: C: 4.8 (Wells 3.7) >Sox 2.4 1B: 2.5 (Rice 2.2) > Sox 2.2 2B: 3.8 (Chisolm 3.4) > Sox 2.3 SS: 3.0 (Volpe 2.3/Caballero 0.6)> Sox 2.0 3B: 2.3 (McMahon 1.5/Rosario 0.6)> Sox 2.0 They beat us at all 5, here. LF: 2.0 (Dominguez 1.7) < 3.0 Sox CF: 3.6 (Grisham 2.6) <5.9 Sox RF: 6.7 (Judge 6.5)> 2.8 Sox DH: 1.5 (Stanton 1.1) <1.7 Sox We are bout even on the OF=DH slots. SP 13.0 (Fried 3.6, Rodon 2.2 (on IL) Cole 1.9 (ret from IL) Schlitter 1.8, Warren 1.5, Gil 1.0, Schmidt 0.3) RP: 3.1 (Bednar 1.2, Doval & Cruz 0.8, Bird 0.2, Headrick & Blackburn 0.1 & nobody else above zero) They got us beat at a few slots, but our pitching wins 22 to 16.1. They need Rodon & Cole to return from injury to just keep their staff close to ours.

Fangraphs fWAR Projections: TBR: C: 2.3 (Fortes 1.2) 1B: 2.7 (Aranda 1.8) 2B: 1.4 (Palacios 0.8) SS: 1.6 (Williams 1.1) 3B: 5.4 (Caminero5.4) They beat us at 3B, only! LF: 1.3 (Simpson 0.9) CF: 2.1 (Mullins 1.4) RF: 1.5 (Jo Lowe 1.1) DH: 2.8 (Y Diaz 2.3) SP 12.3 (McClanahan 2.9, Rasm 2.8, Pepiot 2.1, Matz 1.7, Boyle 1.0, Seymour o.8, Gomez 0.3) RP: 3.4 (Jax 1.4, Cleav 0.8, Uceta 0.7, Baker 0.4, Englert 0.2 & nobody else above zero) They got us beat at DH & 3B only. Our pitching wins 22 to 15.7.

Fangraphs fWAR Projections: BAL: C: 4.5 (Rutschman 3.4) 1B: 2.9 (Alosno 2.6) 2B: 3.3 (Holiday 2.6) SS: 6.1 (Gunnar 6.0) 3B: 3.4 (Westburg 2.9) That's a nice first 5! LF: 2.6 (TWard 2.4) CF: 2.5 (Cowser 2.0) RF: 2.2 (Beavers 1.4) DH: 1.5 (Basallo 0.4/O'Neill 0.3) SP 11.1 (Rogers 2.4, Bradish 3.1, Baz 2.0, Kremer 1.3, Wells 0.9, Povich 0.8) RP: 2.5 (Helsley 1.0, Kittredge 0.6, Akin & Enns 0.3, Selby & Cano 0.2) They got us beat at Catcher and Infield, but we blow their OF away, their DH, too, but most importantly or pitching wins 22 to 13.6!

Look at the holes in the 26 man rosters of BAL and TBR. They have way more than the 2 the Sox have. (fangraphs does have BAL almost tied w BOS, so maybe I'm wrong.) TOR might have just 1 major hole. The Yanks have a few, but they will make some signings, at some point. You can count on that more than on JH allowing Brez to spend. Anything can happen, and the ALE looks tough again.

Would HOU do this for Rafaela, instead of KC? (I might wants a HOU, LH'd RP'er added, if so.)

I can't throw stones at Utes. I chose Texas, of all places!

He bought the property! He's not buying the Sox FO sham, though.

Isn't the Salt Lake like an ocean?

I just joined BTV, and had some fun, today. Some Sox players I feel they over-rated: 22 Crawford 18 Casas 9 Cespedes (the most over) 3 Bleis 2.4 Castro, 2.3 Zanetello I think KC is worth more than 19, Slaten more than 11 and Valera more than 6. Some of my trade suggestions, some made in haste (all have the other team getting more BTV value) Crawford & Hicks for Nate Cespedes, Harrison, Sandlin & Hicks for Nate Rafaela & DHam for Nate, Jung and Latz Cespedes, Sandlin & Wong for Keller & Bart (PIT says HELL NO!) Crawford, Cespedes & Wong for Bubic and Blake Mitchell Duran, Casas & DHam for K Marte Rafaela, Crawford & Romy for KMarte Rafaela, Harrison & DHam for Donovan & Pages Rafaela & Romy for Lodolo & McLain Duran & Hamilton for Lodolo & McLain Rafaela, Hicks & $10M for Paredes, Matthews & Sousa Duran & Hicks for Paredes, Matthews and Sousa Rafaela, Crawford, Soto & Cespedes for Ragans _________________ 3 Ways: BOS: Paredes & Alcantara HOU: K Campbell MIA: B Mathews _______________ BOS: Joe Ryan MIN: Painter & Mullins PHI: Duran & Harrison ______________ This one was for fun..... BOS: Skenes & Keller PHI: Duran, Crawford, Hicks & Cespedes PIT: Mayer, Painter, Tolle & Castro and Duran, Crawford & Narvaez for Wm Contreras, Peralta, Koenig & Gasser

It wasn't a 4+ year deal, though, so why now?

Yes, 29% in AAA, but a .795 OPS and about 20 Hrs per 650 for the 23 year old. I guess his defense might be what matters.

I'm not 90% sure we wont go 4 or more years, and if the guy is 28 or 29, I think we would. (30- maybe.) We might go 4 for Bregman. Maybe 3 with a hefty buyout on 4th year option. I think they'd rather go 2 for Suarez.

2 years, though. He's older now, too. I would not have paid $13M for him. $11M x 2 for Weaver looks better. $19M/2 for Finnegan, too. $8M/1 for Gregory Soto LHP was right up their alley.

Third team for Gore works, too, but I'm not sure I count him as a #2, despite his higher BTV than Lodolo. I agree on HOU not trading Brown and CIN not trading Greene, but HOU is acting stingy and may be rebuilding.

What's different now compared to last year's one year offer? Bregman is a year older. He showed that maybe his bat decline was not for real, but now his health is more of a concern. His FA value may be about the same as last winter. Is our wide open window, now, the game changer? I thought the window opened wide, last winter, especially if the $21M spent on Buehler had worked out well, and or Houck stayed healthy. His clubhouse value is enormous, and I think the Sox love that, but I don't see 4 years offered, and I think it takes 5. BTW, the Sox offer last winter was not better than DET's. We got outbid on a long term deal. We will again, this winter. IMO.

Rafaela (36 on BTV) & Hicks (-18) plus $10M cash for Paredes 3B/1B/2B (12) Brice Matthews (RHB 2B, 13) Sousa (LH RP, 5)

$13M is a lot for a guy who has seen his K rate do this... 14.3 in '22 13.5 in '23 8.7 in '24 8.8 in '25 K's were what he was known for (and velocity.) He did still have a .612 OPSA in '25 (.659 v L) .601 in '24 (.689 v L)

I think the Cubs or Jays get Bregman. The Jays may prefer Breggie to the longer term Bichette deal. The Cubs may make a stronger bid for Tucker over Bregman. There may be a team like the NYM or PHI, or even DET that makes a final big offer to Bregman. I do not think JH will approve 4-5 years, when he wouldn't last winter. Breggie is gone, IMO. Bichette is at an age where the Sox are known to sign long term deals (extensions,) but I do not think he has the power we need. I think we trade for Donovan or Vientos. I'd prefer KMarte or Paredes.

It does feel like it would be a miracle to see a bold addition.

It's about what other Gms offer and not so much BorA$$.

Fairbanks to Marlins for #13M/1.