moonslav59

When you should expect improvements as player approach prime or reach peak prime, some of the numbers look low... Our projected fWAR for 2026: 3.1 Anthony (2.7 in less than half a season) 2.9 Rafaela (3.8 in '25) 2.2 Abreu (2.4 while missing a month) 2.1 Duran (3.9 in '25) 2.1 Narvaez (2.4 as a rookie) 1.9 Contreras (2.8 in '25, 2.7 in '24 & 2.8 in '23) 1.9 Story (3.0 during a fully healthy '25) 1.8 Mayer (0.4 in 1/4 a season) 1.5 Romy (1.5 in 96 games) 0.5 Casas (-0,4 in about a month) 0.4 Campbell, Sogard & Yoshida 0.3 Wong & DHam Pitchers 5.7 Crochet (5.8 in '25) 3.9 Gray (3.6 in '25, 3.8 in '24 and 5.4 in '23) 2.0 Bello (1.9) 1.6 Sandoval (3.5 '23-'24 in 244 IP and 3.7 in '22 in 149 IP) 1.5 Chapman (2.6) 1.1 Whitlock (2.2- they cut him in half) 1.1 Crawford (1.8 in '24 and 2.4 in '23) 1.1 Early (1.1 in just 19 IP) 0.7 Tolle (-0.2) & Oviedo (2.0 2023+2025 in 218 IP) 0.6 Harrison (0.4 in just 12 IP) 0.4 Slaten (0.4 but 1.5 in '24) 0.2 Weissert (0.7- they show no love here) I realize other teams can make similar claims abut their estimates looking lower than 2025 numbers and recent trends.

We shouldn't write Rodon off, nor Cole, but we need to question them like we question our own. I'm kinda bummed at our 2026 outlook, so far, but the rotation is our bright spot- on paper. Of course, the games are played on the field, but it helps to have your pitchers lined up as best as can be, when possible. I'm pretty confident our offense will be good enough, but I'm assuming we add a good 2B/3Bman. If we can add a very good one, we should be better in 2026, assuming good health and expected progressions and regressions all around. I like the Contreras addition more and more, but there is a chance he declines due to age. Maybe the park helps him put that off a couple more years. The vast majority of our everyday players are on the upswings of their careers, by following the normal age bell curve, but we all know most players rarely follow the curve perfectly. We will likely need some luck on the confluence of good years by just enough players to make a serious run at a ring, but we have enough pieces to think it "could happen." Our returning players are listed here by most PAs in 2025 with their ages listed (OPS in '25): 696 Duran 28 .774 654 Story 32 .741 587 Rafaela 24 .708 446 Narvaez 26 .726 417 W Abreu 26 .786 The top 5 have nobody over .786, but none below .708, and only Story is over 28. The next group is where much of the hope lies... 341 Romy 28 .826 (maybe an outlier) 303 Anthony 21 .859 (enormous upside, here) 263 Campbell 23 .664 (could bounce back bigtime) 205 Yoshida 31 .696 (should hit over .750) 194 DHam 27 .590 & 188 Wong 29 .500 (hard to imagine they do this poorly and get these PAs numbers, if they do.) 136 Mayer 22 .674 (another guy with upside) 112 Casas 25 .580 (could be the wildcard in '26) Contreras hit .791 in 563 PAs in '25 at age 33. 7 key players will be under 27: Anthony, Abreu, Rafaela, Narvaez, Casas, Campbell &, Mayer 2 key players will be 28-30: Duran & Romy 3 key players will be 31-33: Story, Contreras & Yoshida No batters will be 34 on opening day. (Contreras turns 34 in May.) Normally, it makes sense to project overall improvement when your batters slot in these age groups.

There is no reason to expect any pitcher to repeat their best season from the last 4 years in 2026, but here is what we would see if that happened: ERA+ (GS/IP} BOS 159 Crochet in '25 (32/205) 157 S Gray in '23 (32/184) 138 Sandoval 'in '22 (28/149) 123 B Bello in '25 (28/167) 121 Oviedo in '25 (9/40) 110 since '22 in 49 GS 113 Crawford in '23 (23/129) 101 Harrison in '25 (6/36) Early 179 in 4 GS in '25. Tolle's numbers were not good in '25. There is some reason for hope with this rotation. I'm sure the Yankee and Jays SP'ers would have some nice looking best seasons, too!

Why do you think so highly of the rest of the Yankee rotation? Rodon will start the season on the IL, and if thatw as a Sox pitcher, we'd all be writing him off, completely. Fried is damn good. He's probably the second best SP'er in the ALR to Crochet. Fried turns 32, soon. Some expect decline at age 30-31, so... The rest are... Schlitter is 24 and has 73 career IP in MLB. You'd be calling him a "suspect," if he was on the Sox. Warren started 33 games, but pitched just 162 IP with a 4.44 ERA, His career ERA is 5.16. Why is he better than Bello, Sandoval, Crawford, Harrison and Tolle/Early? Gil turns 27 in June, but has only gone over 57 IP once in MLB. His 3.50 career ERA is very nice, and he's a good pitcher, when healthy. Where have we heard that before? Schmidt turns 30, soo. He's decent. 3.83 Career ERA and 3.07 in the last 2 years, but just 34 GS & 186 IP. They certainly have some promise, and they have shown some success, but I see no reason to think they are or will be better than ours. Now, if Cole and Rodon find their form, we could be in trouble, but we could say the same about Gray, Bello, Sandoval, Crawford, Oviedo, and we have some hopeful suspects, too.

If we don't get a big bat at 2B or 3B, I'd rather trade Rafaela and keep our biggest 3 bats in the OF.

I'm sure GMs rank our OF'ers differently than we do, and more importantly than how Brez does. BTV has this: 61 Anthony 46 Duran 36 Rafaela 27 Abreu (4 of our top 7 values are OF'ers.) 19 Campbell (ranked 13th on team)

TOR's pen is not great, but their lowest slot is 2.0 in LF and 2.1 at DH (Springer/Santander share DH & RF.) That's pretty solid and balanced. Their 5th starter is also 2.1, which is great!

Not sure about meaningless, but I think they look pretty accurate as a snapshot of where teams are right now. Yes, rosters are not set, and my guess is the Yanks add more than we do, going forward- maybe TOR, too. I do think we currently have the best rotation and rotation depth in the ALE and maybe the whole AL. That's a nice thing to have.

While I had wished we did better than Sonny Gray, this point is subjective. fWAR Projections in the ALE #1: Crochet 5.7, Cease 3.8, Fried 3.6, Bradish 3.1, McClanahan 2.9 #2: Gray 3.9, Gausman 2.8, Rasmussen 2.8, Rogers 2.4, Rodon 2.2 ***As you can see, these projections have Gray as the second best ace in the ALE- ahead of Cease, Fried, Bradish and McClanahan! Hell, Bello is just 0.2 away from Rodon as the 5th best #2 in the ALE! #3: Bieber 2.5, Pepiot 2.1, Bello 2.0, Baz 2.0, Cole 1.9 #4: Ponce 2.2, Schlitter 1.8, Matz 1.7, Sandoval 1.6, Kremer 1.3 #5: Yesavage 2.1, Warren 1.5, Crawford 1.1, Boyle 1.0, Wells 0.9 *** Our 3-4-5 slots are all middle of the pack. SP Depth: Early 1.0, Berrios 1.0, Gil 1.0, Povish 0.8, Seymour 0.8, Tolle 0.7, Oviedo 0.6, Harrison 0.5 ***We are the only ALE team with more than 1 depth starter over 0.5, and we have FOUR! As much as having a better #2 SP'er would have been nice, our rotation and rotation depth is solid from top to bottom, and even below the bottom with Uberstine, Drohan, Sandlin, Mullins, Gamboa, Bennett, Holobetz & Rivera on the arm. Our pitching is fine. We need a big bat- RHB would be best or one with good splits vs LHPs. I've given up hoping for 2, and I guess Contreras is good enough to equal Refsnyder and Lowe's losses. We need to replace the Devers/Bregman loss. We need a 2Bman or 3Bman. It can be 2B/3B big bat- all in one add. To me, we are one huge addition away from being better than 2025. KMarte would do it for me. Bregman or Bichette would get us close to even- maybe better. Suarez, Viento or Donovan would need a Lodolo to make us better.

I lived in Mexico City for over 4 years. I can appreciate that. HOU also has a huge Asian population, so lots of Indian, Vietnamese and other great Asian spots to eat, too. That's about it. It's been 80 all week. While that's better than snow and ice, there are about 6 months of unbearable heat, here. Good thing we have Sebago Lake for the sumemrs.

Fangraphs fWAR Projections: TOR: C: 5.2 (Kirk 4.5/Hein 0.7) >>Sox 2.4 1B: 5.1 (Guerrero 5.0) >> Sox 2.2 2B: 2.6 (Clement 1.1/Schneider 1.0/Jimenez 0.5) > Sox 2.3 SS: 3.3 (Gimenez 2.3)> Sox 2.0 3B:3.1 (Barger 2.0/ Clement 1.1)> Sox 2.0 They beat us at all 5, here. LF: 2.0 (Lukes 1.3) < 3.0 Sox CF: 2.2 (Varsho 1.9) <<5.9 Sox RF: 2.3 (Springer 1.0/Santander 0.7)<2.8 Sox DH: 2.1 (Springer 1.4) >1.7 Sox We beat them at the OF+DH slots. SP 15.1 (Cease 3.8, Gausman 2.8, Bieber 2.5, Ponce 2.2, Yesavage 2.1, Berrios 1.0, Tiederman 0.4) They have a nice 5 and 6, but some are questionable- like ours are.) RP: 3.5 (Hoffman 1.1, Varland 0.7, Garcia 0.6, Rogers & nance 0.3, Fisher & Lauer 0.1 & nobody else above zero) Everyday players 27.4 to 21.8 They got us beat at a few slots, but our pitching wins 22 to 18.6. Team Totals: 51.2 LAD 46.3 NYY 46.0 NYY & ATL 45.0 SEA 43.4 NYM 43.1 PHI 42.9 BOS 42.7 BAL 41.3 HOU 41.1 SDP 40.9 KCR 40.7 DET 40.4 MIL

Fangraphs fWAR Projections: NYY: C: 4.8 (Wells 3.7) >Sox 2.4 1B: 2.5 (Rice 2.2) > Sox 2.2 2B: 3.8 (Chisolm 3.4) > Sox 2.3 SS: 3.0 (Volpe 2.3/Caballero 0.6)> Sox 2.0 3B: 2.3 (McMahon 1.5/Rosario 0.6)> Sox 2.0 They beat us at all 5, here. LF: 2.0 (Dominguez 1.7) < 3.0 Sox CF: 3.6 (Grisham 2.6) <5.9 Sox RF: 6.7 (Judge 6.5)> 2.8 Sox DH: 1.5 (Stanton 1.1) <1.7 Sox We are bout even on the OF=DH slots. SP 13.0 (Fried 3.6, Rodon 2.2 (on IL) Cole 1.9 (ret from IL) Schlitter 1.8, Warren 1.5, Gil 1.0, Schmidt 0.3) RP: 3.1 (Bednar 1.2, Doval & Cruz 0.8, Bird 0.2, Headrick & Blackburn 0.1 & nobody else above zero) They got us beat at a few slots, but our pitching wins 22 to 16.1. They need Rodon & Cole to return from injury to just keep their staff close to ours.

Fangraphs fWAR Projections: NYY: C: 4.8 (Wells 3.7) >Sox 2.4 1B: 2.5 (Rice 2.2) > Sox 2.2 2B: 3.8 (Chisolm 3.4) > Sox 2.3 SS: 3.0 (Volpe 2.3/Caballero 0.6)> Sox 2.0 3B: 2.3 (McMahon 1.5/Rosario 0.6)> Sox 2.0 They beat us at all 5, here. LF: 2.0 (Dominguez 1.7) < 3.0 Sox CF: 3.6 (Grisham 2.6) <5.9 Sox RF: 6.7 (Judge 6.5)> 2.8 Sox DH: 1.5 (Stanton 1.1) <1.7 Sox We are bout even on the OF=DH slots. SP 13.0 (Fried 3.6, Rodon 2.2 (on IL) Cole 1.9 (ret from IL) Schlitter 1.8, Warren 1.5, Gil 1.0, Schmidt 0.3) RP: 3.1 (Bednar 1.2, Doval & Cruz 0.8, Bird 0.2, Headrick & Blackburn 0.1 & nobody else above zero) They got us beat at a few slots, but our pitching wins 22 to 16.1. They need Rodon & Cole to return from injury to just keep their staff close to ours.

Fangraphs fWAR Projections: TBR: C: 2.3 (Fortes 1.2) 1B: 2.7 (Aranda 1.8) 2B: 1.4 (Palacios 0.8) SS: 1.6 (Williams 1.1) 3B: 5.4 (Caminero5.4) They beat us at 3B, only! LF: 1.3 (Simpson 0.9) CF: 2.1 (Mullins 1.4) RF: 1.5 (Jo Lowe 1.1) DH: 2.8 (Y Diaz 2.3) SP 12.3 (McClanahan 2.9, Rasm 2.8, Pepiot 2.1, Matz 1.7, Boyle 1.0, Seymour o.8, Gomez 0.3) RP: 3.4 (Jax 1.4, Cleav 0.8, Uceta 0.7, Baker 0.4, Englert 0.2 & nobody else above zero) They got us beat at DH & 3B only. Our pitching wins 22 to 15.7.

Fangraphs fWAR Projections: BAL: C: 4.5 (Rutschman 3.4) 1B: 2.9 (Alosno 2.6) 2B: 3.3 (Holiday 2.6) SS: 6.1 (Gunnar 6.0) 3B: 3.4 (Westburg 2.9) That's a nice first 5! LF: 2.6 (TWard 2.4) CF: 2.5 (Cowser 2.0) RF: 2.2 (Beavers 1.4) DH: 1.5 (Basallo 0.4/O'Neill 0.3) SP 11.1 (Rogers 2.4, Bradish 3.1, Baz 2.0, Kremer 1.3, Wells 0.9, Povich 0.8) RP: 2.5 (Helsley 1.0, Kittredge 0.6, Akin & Enns 0.3, Selby & Cano 0.2) They got us beat at Catcher and Infield, but we blow their OF away, their DH, too, but most importantly or pitching wins 22 to 13.6!

Look at the holes in the 26 man rosters of BAL and TBR. They have way more than the 2 the Sox have. (fangraphs does have BAL almost tied w BOS, so maybe I'm wrong.) TOR might have just 1 major hole. The Yanks have a few, but they will make some signings, at some point. You can count on that more than on JH allowing Brez to spend. Anything can happen, and the ALE looks tough again.

Would HOU do this for Rafaela, instead of KC? (I might wants a HOU, LH'd RP'er added, if so.)

I can't throw stones at Utes. I chose Texas, of all places!

He bought the property! He's not buying the Sox FO sham, though.

Isn't the Salt Lake like an ocean?

I just joined BTV, and had some fun, today. Some Sox players I feel they over-rated: 22 Crawford 18 Casas 9 Cespedes (the most over) 3 Bleis 2.4 Castro, 2.3 Zanetello I think KC is worth more than 19, Slaten more than 11 and Valera more than 6. Some of my trade suggestions, some made in haste (all have the other team getting more BTV value) Crawford & Hicks for Nate Cespedes, Harrison, Sandlin & Hicks for Nate Rafaela & DHam for Nate, Jung and Latz Cespedes, Sandlin & Wong for Keller & Bart (PIT says HELL NO!) Crawford, Cespedes & Wong for Bubic and Blake Mitchell Duran, Casas & DHam for K Marte Rafaela, Crawford & Romy for KMarte Rafaela, Harrison & DHam for Donovan & Pages Rafaela & Romy for Lodolo & McLain Duran & Hamilton for Lodolo & McLain Rafaela, Hicks & $10M for Paredes, Matthews & Sousa Duran & Hicks for Paredes, Matthews and Sousa Rafaela, Crawford, Soto & Cespedes for Ragans _________________ 3 Ways: BOS: Paredes & Alcantara HOU: K Campbell MIA: B Mathews _______________ BOS: Joe Ryan MIN: Painter & Mullins PHI: Duran & Harrison ______________ This one was for fun..... BOS: Skenes & Keller PHI: Duran, Crawford, Hicks & Cespedes PIT: Mayer, Painter, Tolle & Castro and Duran, Crawford & Narvaez for Wm Contreras, Peralta, Koenig & Gasser

It wasn't a 4+ year deal, though, so why now?

Yes, 29% in AAA, but a .795 OPS and about 20 Hrs per 650 for the 23 year old. I guess his defense might be what matters.

I'm not 90% sure we wont go 4 or more years, and if the guy is 28 or 29, I think we would. (30- maybe.) We might go 4 for Bregman. Maybe 3 with a hefty buyout on 4th year option. I think they'd rather go 2 for Suarez.

2 years, though. He's older now, too. I would not have paid $13M for him. $11M x 2 for Weaver looks better. $19M/2 for Finnegan, too. $8M/1 for Gregory Soto LHP was right up their alley.