moonslav59

Don't run this idea by Drewski.

I've made the point that a significant reason we dropped in the budget rankings was that some teams just went "nutty" on spending, but that's was not meant to let JH of the hook nor justify his lack of investments in our quality of players. We'd probably be 7th or 8th, if he just spent at a steady increase.

lmao perfect place to insert the 3 monkey icons.

Some notes on our additions: Braiden Ward (Bernardino trade) is Rule 5 eligible but not likely to be selected. He plays OF but can play 2B and 3B. Ronny Hernandez (Murphy) is a catcher and had a .367 OBP in low A-Ball over the last 2 seasons combined. Sp.com thinks he has "natural power." Luke Heyman (Hoppe) is projected by sp.com to be a top 40 prospect. He is another catcher. He was ranked 127th before this year's draft (4th rd) but fell to the 14th rd after he broke his arm. T Gray is Rule 5 eligible, too but just passed through waivers so likely will not be selected. We dealt out own waivers guy, Guerrero, for him. sp.com says Mullins is the most likely guy to be selected and to stick with a team all year.

He wants the fan to cheer louder? Buy more hotdogs? Demand JH spend more?

Spotrac has us at 12th with a $136M budget. We could go to #11 with $1M more, #9 or 10 with $15M more, but even these are reasonable jumps: +25M to #7-8 HOU/SDP +30-35M to #5-6 PHI/ATL Jumping to TOR would take about $60M, assuming they don't bring Bichette back or jump their own spending as they are in a window, too.

Indeed, and some of their numbers are highly suspect. Would anybody trade Tolle (22.7) for Crawford (22.)? How about Crawford + Harrison (9.5) for Early (31)?

Yes. I understood what you said. My point was how much value OF'ers have to teams needing an OF'er. BTW, although I disagree with these BTV numbers, they place the values at: 49.5 Duran 3.4 Ward Ward brought back pretty good value on a 1 for 1 trade, but you think Duran does not bring back high value even as a centerpiece of a trade, right? Did I misunderstand that?

Yup. 49.5 Duran (3 yrs at $7.7M now + 2 arbs) 31`.0 Rafaela (7 yrs + option at low cost that rises) 26.2 Abreu (pre arb then 3 arbs) Value per year above salary cost: 16.5 Duran 6.5 Abeu 3.5 Rafaela

Fake News. lmao.

Agreed. He has one less year than Abreu, who is still pre-arb, so the money aspect means a lot to teams that have tight budgets. While Duran is making $7.7M, that's a lot for some teams and would make them prefer Abreu, all by itself. Abreu is much better on defense than Duran and plays one of the most difficult positions/parks in MLB. Abreu has more power, and that is one area the team lacks. Rafaela has 3 more years of control than Duran at a pretty low cost. Some teams might not view it as "low," especially the last 2-3 years. He also has an option year in 2032. A cheap team could trade him after 3-4 seasons and still get more years than Duran. He's a GG CF'er but is way behind JD in batting value. My guess is there may be a wide variance in how different GMs value him. I misspoke when I said Duran is in decline, but the risk it there, and he did drop off from 2024. The ghost of Jake lurks.

I'm not suggesting we could have traded Duran for GRod. I was just using Ward as an example of what someone paid for a good OF'er who does not defend too well and is not getting any younger. Ward also has one year of control at almost $13M. Duran has 3 and makes $7.7M, next year. You think Duran brings back less than Taylor Ward did? Plus, Ward was not the "centerpiece:" he was the whole package by himself.

Plus, Arias might not be ML ready until Story's control ends.

I think we'd be okay with the plan I laid out minus Polanco. Mayer and Romy at 3B Masa and Ref at DH.

So that's about $60M in winter additions. Alonso + Bregman or Bichette. Schwarber + Suarez or Polanco.

I really do not think it is unrealistic to suggest JH spend up to the second tax line without going over, especially in light of this stretch of skimping and the upcoming wide open window of opportunity that is upon us, now. If he is ever going to spend, it should be now. The second tax line is about $55-65M away, and IMO, we really have three major needs. In theory, that's about $20M per player x 3, but with the excess OF'er situation and some duplicated values here and there, I think we can manage one big trade without hurting the future too much or creating a new hole. It seems plausible we can trade for a Joe Ryan, Lodolo or maybe even go big and get KMarte and then we have $60M for two players. (Maybe spend $10M on Matz & Ref combined and $50M on 2.) This talking Alonso + Bregman territory. Schwarber + Bichette, maybe. Alonso + Suarez or Polanco, easily. I know it sounds outlandish, because we have become accustomed to letdowns and almosts, every winter, but this is doable. It's no joke. It can be done. Now, I know enough about getting my hopes up to expect this doesn't come close to what will happen, but I'm holding JH to the fire. If we fall short, I'm jumping on the JH Sucks Bandwagon... if there is room for one last poster aboard that wagon.

There are some short deal options out there, or trades. To me, we need 3 high quality players: SP2, 1B and 3B/2B. I'm not sure we can get high quality at all 3 slots, unless we do more trading than free agents. Is Merrill Kelly high enough quality to be our #2 SP'er? He might sign for 2-3 years. He just turned 37. Are 33 year olds Hoskins or Josh Bell big enough upgrades at 1B? I'm not sure any other decent ones can be signed for 1-3 years. Polanco is 32 and may look to put up big numbers and opt out of a deal, if we give him a high AAV deal. I keep mentioning 34 year old E Suarez for this very reason: he may take a 2-3 year deal. I doubt we win with Kelly, Hoskins and ESuarez or Polanco, but it's not a horrible winter. How about this for no large and longs: Trade Duran plus for KMarte. His contract is kinda long but not too large for his profile. Add Matz and Ref. Sign Suarez for 1B, Polanco to DH and Kelly to pitch!

It's not even close. Ward was traded one on one, and Duran can't even be a "centerpiece?"

I agree that Duran had more value after last year. He still has a lot. I know you don't value WAR, but the differences are stark: 2024>2025 Ward: BWAR 2.3>2.7 Duran: BWAR 8.7>4.7 (sure, a drop off but still 2 above Ward.) fWAR Ward: 2.8>2.9 Duran: 6.8>3.9 (despite a major drop off, still 1 up on Ward.)

I meant in my mind Duran is the one to be traded, and not just because of the 3 things I mentioned, or the trends and defense or years of control or budget costs or ... He has higher trade value, because he has had better numbers. We'll get more for him. That's a big reason he's #1 on my list. I get the fact that we need offense and trading one of of our top 3 offense guys after losing Devers and Bregman seems counterintuitive, but for the reasons I mentioned and some umentioned, I'd look to trade him not the others. If someone offers similar returns for Abreu or Rafaela, I'm all ears. I'm even okay trading two for the right returns, and no on trading either for prospects, unless they are flipped for Duran, KMarte or the like. I realize my suggestion could backfire. As for Rafaela's decline? .702 first 78 games .714 last 78 games Duran: .714 first 78 games .842 last 79 games That was a nice finish, unless you look at just Sept: .692 Duran .669 Ceddanne They both kinda tailed off.

Sounds right. I think both start in AAA as we will trade for a #2 and maybe sign Matz.

Those three years saw an attempt to deepen the 40 man and farm. Hardly any top prospects were traded, and some of the ones that were traded were for other prospects or recent grads. The trades made yesterday were just shuffling the deck. No top players were traded. No top prospects were added to the system.

Agreed. It is rare to select a guy to the 40 for Rule 5 purposes then DFA them. Anybody know if the Sox have ever done that?

Yes, he is a very good player with more HR power. His SLG% finally passed Duran's for a season, too. Duran did worse than the year before despite being younger. There are certainly advantages and pluses for both guys, but Duran has "centerpiece" value. The Ward trade was one for one!

Duran can be a very significant "centerpiece," but more will be needed to get a real gem back. Look what Taylor Ward brought back, yesterday. Ward turns 34 before the season begins. Last 3 years: .241 BA (.323 OBP) .443 SLG (.767 OPS) 14 SBs Negative dWAR every season in MLB Duran: .276 BA (.339 OBP) .471 SLG (.810 OPS) 82 SBs Plus dWAR over 3 years but negative 3 yrs ago.