moonslav59

Yup. Too much hype and not much substance or even truth.

Not many that I see, but I stopped reading many Boston media outlet articles a while back.

I'm not saying we should or will trade them. I think I'd rather have Masa than $5M in savings to add to FA signings. I don't like Hicks. If it's true we only have $22-26M to spend, and Alonso costs $28M, then we'd need to trade someone to afford him. If we are able to trade Duran plus for KMarte, we's spend about $11M more. That would leave $11-15M to spend on a FA, so adding $5 (hicks), 7.5 (Campbell) or $12.5M (both) could mean we add a nother really good FA and not one for $10-11M.

If it comes down to pennies, maybe trading Masa and "saving" $5-6M on AAV and or Hicks and saving $4-5M on AAV would add up to enough to sign a bigger name than a moderate one. Trading Duran or Campbell could add some more.

Sandoval had the internal brace procedure, not the full TJS, so his timetable was expected to be shorter. He failed to pitch in 2025 due to another issue, I believe, so I think he should be 100% over the surgery, now. Hopefully, he is working out to strengthen his arm and will be ready day one of ST'ing. It's hard to keep hoping on these guys, because we've came up short on almost every one of these signings, but maybe he breaks the mold.

Good points. After signing Devers in 2013, he stated out at #18 in spring '14, jumped to 12th and 4th during 2014.

I don't think he affects how we view Arias, and our future infield situation is very fluid, right now. We don't have a 3Bman, 2Bman and need a comeback from Casas at 1B. Story has 2 years left. Mayer will probably fill one slot. but nobody views Romero as a FT'er. Not many view Romy as anything more than a short-side platoon at 2B, 1B or DH- maybe 3B. Guys like Soto are hard to project- kinda like Cespedes, who had some high potential a while back.

Nick Deeds reports... The Red Sox have been connected to a lot of free agency’s top bats after strengthening the rotation with their Sonny Gray acquisition. Reports have indicated that the club is not only in on the likes of Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso, and Alex Bregman but also interested in signing multiple well-regarded free agent bats. Despite all of that buzz, however, financial realities could make that difficult. Reporting over the weekend suggests that the team might not be willing to spend much farther than the first luxury tax threshold this winter, which would leave them with a roughly similar payroll to 2025. Barring a change of heart from ownership, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow will either need to use the trade market to add some lower-cost bats and/or shed some salary via trade. Boston is currently about $21MM shy of the first tax threshold. If our budget in $25M, we aren't getting 2 big FAs. Maybe we can make a trade for a big bat like K Marte ($19M AAV,) and if we give up Duran ($7.5M) or Campbell ($7.5M) or get them to take Hicks ($10.3M) maybe we can have enough left over for one moderate FA, but not someone like Schwarber, Alonso, Bregman or Bichette. There is no excuse for skimping this winter. None! We just got out from under the Devers deal and dropped a ton of salary from Buehler, Gio and others. The window is open. Don't close the curtains!

To me, the "hammer" has been more about the lies & deception than the quiet.

Not a peep. To me, if he's healthy, he has the inside track on the 4 slot, maybe 5 slot. The 5 slot is up for grabs between Crawford, Dobbins and Harrison. Early and Tolle would need to have great ST'ings to win a rotation slot without significant injuries to 1-2 of the 6 pitchers ahead of them.

Good rundown, Larry. I like hearing from people who have seen these guys pitch, but at their ages, some big jumps can happen at any time. Also, seeing a guy on a couple bad nights might also not help with your views.

That might have more to do with what they want in return than the idea of trading him. If they are looking way down the line, maybe they ask for farther away prospects.

he was pretty good for 2 seasons, although one was not a full season.

I was just about to post about Okamoto, but you said it better than I could.

If that happens, then great, but Mayer cannot be the plan. I'm fine with handing Mayer and Romy a platoon at 2B or even 3B, but only if we add 2 big bats. (Alonso & Bregman. Alonso $ KMarte or Alonso & Polanco.)

I'd give Crawford, too.

I like WHIP more for RP'ers and OPS Against for SP'er.

It's hard to construct an accurate system to divide all of the top MLB SP'ers into 5 categories of 30 each. To get a sample size of 150 pitchers (30 teams x 5 SP'ers) the sample size needs to be around 75 IP. If you use that, then you have some smaller sample pitchers that show up on the ERA, ERA+, ERA-, FIP and other non cumulative value stats leader boards, most likely undeservedly. Since most #5 starters are interchangeable, maybe getting the sample size to 120 is best, and all the rest are #5's or better. This is flawed, too, for many of the same reasons. The sample size is 100 to get 120 pitchers, and someone going 100 IP vs someone else going 180-200+ IP is apples to oranges in many ways (unless you use something like fWAR, which accounts for longevity.) Here is a look at the top 120 rankings: fWAR: #1 Crochet (4) & Gray (20), #2 Bello (59) Gio was a #3 at 64 and nobody else had 120 IP. ERA-: #1 Crochet (9) #2 Bello (31 is almost a #1) Gio was a high #2 (33) and Gray is a #3 at 77. FIP: #1 Crochet (8) #1 Gray (21) High #3 Bello (62) & Gio (64) Does this get us any closer to knowing if Gray or Bello should be called a #2, a #3 or something else? Then, we have to try and project 2026 from past numbers: 1 year, 2 years, 3 years??? Geeeessh!

Sox projections adjusted to 180-190 IP: 5.6 Crochet 3.9 Gray 3.2 Early 2.5 Sandoval 2.1 Bello 2.0 Tolle 1.6 Crawford 1.3 Harrison 1.0 Dobbins

In 2025, the Sox had 10 SP'ers with an fWAR at +0.1 or better. We had 7 over 0.3 and 5 at 1.0 or more: 5.8 Crochet 2.0 Bello 2.0 Giolito (FA) 1.1 Early 1.0 Dobbins (In 2024 Crawford was at 1.8 and Criswell 1.1) The Yanks had 5 SP'er over 1.3 and have Cole returning: 4.8 Fried, 3.2 Rodon, 2.1 Warren, 1.3 Schlitter & Schmidt (Gil 0.6 in 57 IP) The Jays had 3 and Bassitt is a FA: 4.1 Gausman, 2.4 Bassitt, 1.4 Berrios (0.8 Lauer in 74 IP & Yesavage 0.4 in 14 IP)

Me, too. Maybe having Tolle and Early, as well as Perales in the system will take some of the spotlight off Valera a bit, but we have so many very promising pitchers in the next group poised for a big jump, that I'm super pumped up. The two 19 year olds, Valera and Fajardo are equally exciting to me. The three college draftees, all 21, can show major growth, too: Witherspoon, Phillips & Eyanson. I'm pretty pumped up about 23 year old Holobetz, 18 year old Travieso & 17 year old Soto, too. These older guys hold some promise, and maybe one surprises us with a big jump: Sandlin (24) Uberstine (26) Drohan (26) & Mullins (26) I'm not sure about Paez (21) Monegro (23) and Delzine (17.)

Texas A & M lost, but they will be in the dance. All the other top 18 teams that player won, some just barely. People down here in Texas are arguing that Texas belongs, but with 3 loses, I don't think they should. With some conference championship games coming up, some teams in the top 12 could get bounced out. (Ratings are from before games played this past week.) 11 BYU vs 5 Texas Tech: Tech is in with win or loss, IMO. BYU is in with a win and out with a loss. 4 GA vs 10 ALA: GA is in no matter what. ALA is out with a loss. 1 Ohio St vs 1 Indiana: both are in, win or loss. 18 VA vs Duke (North Texas v Tulane and James Madison v Troy) This might be the new rankings: 1. Ohio St 12-0 (play IN) 2. Indiana 12-0 (play OSU) 3. Georgia 11-1 (play ALA) 4. Texas Tech 11-1 (play BYU) 5. Texas A & M 11-1 6. Ole Miss 11-1 7. Oregon 11-1 8. Oklahoma 10-2 9. Notre Dame 10-2 10. Alabama 10-2 (play GA) 11. BYU 11-1 (play TEX Tech) 12. Vanderbilt 10-2 __________________ 13. Miami 10-2 (Need BYU or ALA loss) 14. Utah 10-2 (Need BYU, ALA and VA losses) 15. Virginia 10-2 (May sneak in with win over Duke) ___________________ 16. Texas 9-3 (I don't see them jumping 4 teams) 17. James Madison 11-1 (I doubt they jump to 12th, even with a 70-0 win) 18. No. Texas 11-1 (I doubt they jump to 12th, even with a 70-0 win) __________________ T19. USC & Mich 9-3 (No chance)

I agree. It's about as bad as star players sitting out bowl games to avoid injury.

Our 40 was unbalanced, and the top 20-30 prospects are unbalanced, too. Still is. We did add Sandlin, Uberstine and Drohan to replace 3 pitchers leaving. Guerrero for Gray was a sort of balancing of the minors. (Bernardino, Murphy, Wink.) We are losing Gio, Buehler, Wilson, Matz and May. We added Gray and lost Clarke & Fitts.

Yes, and we lost about 850 PAs from Devers and Bregman. Anthony had 300, so he cannot make up 850. Mayer is a long shot to hit like Devers or Bregman, so let's assume Anthony gets 650 PAs and has no sophomore slump. That leaves 500 PAs for ????. Bringing Bregman back might keep us even and not a top contender for one more year. The window is open. We need to be bold. Hoping on Mayer is not a good plan.