moonslav59

Good point.

And, xFIP shows Gray was a top 30 SP'er in 2025. (Cease, too.) 100+ IP in '25 1. Crochet 2.64 12. Gray 3.07 18. Valdez 3.34 20. Cease 3.56 21. Suarez 3.61 26. Bubic 3.63 28. Lodolo 3.66 30. Ryan 3.70 _______________ #2's???? 34. Gore 3.78 36. M Kelly 3.81 58. Gallen 4.12 _________________ #3's???? 62. M Keller & Bibee 4.17 65. Alcantara 4.19 73. Singer 4.25 86. Bello 4.39 98. Giolito 4.59 (127 pitchers in sample size.)

He did get a couple shots later, but it's too early to know what his true upside is.

For two to three seasons it has not been "CHEAP," it's been "SHORT." $39M/2 Gio, $21M/1 for Buehler than $21M/1 for Gray is a lot. True, it's even not as much AAV as Cease, but it's not chump change, either. It's over double the AAV on Richards, Kluber, Wacha+Hill and Sandoval. I'm not making excuses. I agree with you that Gray is not a #2, and the talk was more about a high 2 or co-ace with Crochet, so it makes it even worse. On Valdez, he just turned 32 and has had some "issues" in HOU. Suarez is 30 and is a solid #2, in my book. 2025 fWAR: 4.0 Valdez & Suarez, 3.6 Gray, 3.4 Cease (3.1 Ryan & 2.8 Lodolo are some guys mentioned as #2 additions) FIP: 3.21 Suarez, 3.37 Valdez, 3.39 Gray, 3.56 Cease, 3.74 Ryan & Gore (all top 30 in MLB) Lodolo at #35 at 3.81 ERA-: 75 Suarez & Lodolo, (78 Bello & 80 Gio) 83 Ryan (all top 30) then...90 Valdez (37th) 99 Gore (58th) 104 Gray (69th) 112 Cease (81st) 3 Year numbers: fWAR 12.8 Gray (5th) 12.1 Valdez (8) 11.7 Cease (9) 9.6 Suarez (15) 8.6 Ryan (27) 7.3 Gore (40) Pretty much all were 1's or 2's. FIP: #10 Gray, 16 Valdez, 20 Cease, 21 Suarez, 35 Ryan, 48 Gore, 54 Lodolo ERA- 19th Valdez, 23 Suarez, 32 Gray, 39 Ryan, 51 Lodolo, 58 Gore,102 Cease. I really don't want Valdez, although I think he will be better than Gray. Suarez would be great but is out of JH's range from day one. To me, we have a longshot chance at landing Lodolo, Alcantara, Gore or Ryan, but two big bats are my two top priorities, now that we have Gray at $21M.

How would you rate where Ryan is now versus where Crochet was when traded? Pretty close? It's hard to not let what Crochet did, this season to interfere with this comp.

The trade made us better, for sure, and the odds are low we will look back and say, I wish we still had Clarke or Fitts, but then again, we may have felt that way about Priester. The focus needs to turn to replacing Bregman and 1/2 Devers. There really needs to be a gain, since we can't really count on Gray doing much better than the 2025 Gio. Signing Bregman or Bichette is a push on replacing Bregman. Replacing Devers is the real challenge. To me, KMarte is the best choice with Alonso or Schwarber as close. Signing both Bregman and Bichette is not really a power boost, but could be enough. (I'm not sure we afford both after adding $21M for Gray, so I'm thinking trading some salary for KMarte works better.)

FIP and xFIP have grown on me in recent years, and I like your point about GB/FO ratios, but there are too many exceptions that keep me skeptical. Here are some of the largest differentials between ERA and FIP: Better FIP .52 Luzardo .41 Syndergaard .38 Kirby .35 Nola .29 Gray .28 Webb .26 Sale _______________ Better ERA .49 Kershaw .45 Urias .41 Verlander .38 Fried .36 Buehler .33 Bassitt .26 deGrom ______________ Some interesting names on each list. How about the highest FIPs of the ERA- leaders? ERA- Rank v FIP Rank 7. Verlander 3.45 (18th in FIP) 13. Urias 3.66 (31st in FIP) 16. Bauer 3.69 (33rd) 23. Hamels 4.28 (95th)

I had hoped for better than Gray, but honestly, he seems like a much better bet than Buehler was, than Sandoval was, than Paxton & Kluber were, than Wacha & Hill were, than Kluber & Richards were and certainly better than Martin Perez was. If we check the 2 big bat boxes at 2 of these positions, I'd be fine with this winter: 2B, 3B, 1B or maybe DH I'd count Bregman, Bichette or Polanco as one, but not if they are the best bat we add. IMO, we need one from KMarte, Alonso or Schwarber. A second bat from the above group would be great, but more likely the best we can hope for might be KMarte or Alonso plus Realmuto.

2025 Lists (120+ IP) A> Skenes, Skubal, C Sanchez, Webb, Sale, Eovaldi, Crochet, Luzardo, Yamamoto, Wheller B> Eovaldi, Skenes, Skubal, C Sanchez, Yamo, Brown, Crochet, Sale, Wheller, Peralta C> Skubal, Skenes, C Sanchez, Crochet, Webb, Luzardo, Yamo, Fried, Brown, Gausman (A= FIP, B=ERA-, C= fWAR)

I like ERA+/ERA- more than FIP. There are just too many really good pitchers who never had great FIPs. That being said, FIP has real value, and not many pitchers have great FIP numbers and fail or are mediocre. Here are 3 lists of the top 10 SP'ers over the past 10 years: which do you think is most accurate? 600+ IP A. Scherzer, deGrom, Wheeler, Nola, Cole, Sale, Verlander, Gausman, Kershaw, Gray B. deGrom, Sale, Webb, Skubal, Bieber, Kershaw, Scherzer, Wheeler, Burnes, Fried C. deGrom, Kershaw, Sale, Scherzer, Fried, Burnes, Verlander, Woodruff, Skubal, Bieber It's kinda hard to pick. I'd go A-C-B. That's fWAR-ERA--FIP

If I had to bet, it might be on Bregman, Realmuto & Matz Maybe Okamoto & Matz.

If my assessment is right, what other team has so much upside promise, in terms of quantity? We have a sure fire #1. Everyone agrees. We have 4 pitchers with #2 upside potential or have already pitched like one. We have another 6 with #3 upside potential. I'd be fine saying Criswell is a #4 tops, so 10 pitchers with that much upside is rather stunning. My guess is one gets traded with an OF'er to upgrade the infield or maybe get that "real #2" that was talked about.

I think Merloni thinks it would be better for the top brass to just come clean with the fans. Don't tell the fans they want a co-ace, trade for Gray and then not explain if he's the co-ace or not. Don't say we need a serious power upgrade and end up with Bregman and Realmuto. I can understand not telling the fans "We are rebuilding for 4-5 years" after the 2018 or 2019 season. They needed to sell tickets, but a 4+ year sham is pushing some boundaries.

I kinda feel the same, but I think the inside track will be to the experienced, first: Sandoval, Crawford, Dobbins/Harrison (maybe in that order.) A great ST'ing by anyone, including a rookie, could jump any of these 6 into the rotation. This from a guy who does not put much stock into ST'ing numbers. That's how bunched up they all are.

He's got a rock solid .757 OPS in AAA!

He should play the full season at WOO

We can't agree on what a #1, #2, #3, #4 and #5 are on this site, and then we all have different ideas on what numbers are more important than others, so asking us to place out pitchers into these categories is bound to get wild fluctuation. My methodology is to say you are a number one, if you are a top 30 pitcher in many of the stats that matter to me: ERA-/ERA+, fWAR more than bWAR, FIP and maybe K-BB%. (WAR factors in IP alot, so I don't need that included. A Number two is 31-60, #3 61-90 and so on... What I think is interesting about our SP'er ratings is than so many have pretty high ceilings. One could argue many have low floors, too. The pitchers we have with significant experience have already shown they can pitch well for a season or two, but again, almost all have a bad season or two, as well. Determining their ceiling could be just saying they can repeat their bast year. Only Gray is old enough to say that is unreasonable to expect or even hope for. Here is my floor-ceiling ratings for our SP'ers. High 1- Mid 1 Crochet Mid 2- mid 4 Gray Low 2- high 4 Bello High 3- low 4 Sandoval (Had a 3.7 fWAR in '22 & 2.3 in '23) High 3-mid/low 5 Crawford (2.4 in '23 not fully a SP) Mid 3- low 5 Harrison Mid 3- low 5 Dobbins Low 3- low 6 Criswell Mid 2-???? Early Mid 2-???? Tolle Mid 3-???? Perales

Maybe we get Gore or Lodolo, but more likely no other SP'er.

I have never said I wanted Cease. I've said the opposite. All I said was he is better than his 2025 ERA indicates, and when it was 4.55, that can be a 3-4 type pitcher.

I said that?

ERA does not account for park or defense, nor strength of opposing offenses. I like ERA- and ERA+, too. I was just responding to your point about the "other stats" not being based on actual numbers, FIP does. I like FIP, but not as much as some on this site. I like ERA- and ERA+ more than FIP, but not way more. If Gray is a #4 in ERA-/ERA+ and a #1 in FIP, I'd be fine calling him a very low 2 or higher 3. If Bello is a 1/2 in ERA-/ERA+ and a 2/3 in FIP, should we can him a solid #2? I wouldn't, and that shows the limitation of stats. To me, Gray and Bello have been 2's at times, 3's at times and 4's at times in the past 2 years. Bello should be getting better while Gray should be getting worse. If they end up our 3-4, I'm fine. I don't like either as our #2, so the bottom line- we agree. We just got there in different ways. I doubt we get a #2, so we better max out on our 2 big bat additions.

All true, but there has been a lot of talk about Peralta.

Good numbers. I like using 3 year sample sizes, however, with pitchers who have only been in MLB for 3 years, it can be a bit deceptive. As with 36 year old pitchers like Gray, maybe the past 1-2 year sample size is a bit more telling. With Bello, 2023 was better than 2024, so the two year sample won't vary much from the 3 year one. Same with Gray. On the 3 year sample size, you listed Bello as 84th in ERA, but he was also 45th in ERA- at 93, which is better than Kirby, Bassitt, Lodolo, Gore and others. 2025 only: (120 SP'ers with 100+ IP) ERA- 31. Bello 78 33. Gio 80 36. Ryan 81 46. Framber 90 50. Singer 91 53. Castillo 93 77. Gray 104 FIP 21. Gray 3.39 29. Cease 3.56 35. Ryan 3.69 38. Gore 3.74 40. Lodolo 3.78 62. Bello 4.12 64. Gio 4.17 I'd like Bello as our #4. Gray would be fine as our #3. That still leave the #2 slot open, but I doubt Brez & Co see it this way.

Fixed it.

FIP is based 100% on numbers. Numbers that do not involved the defense behind a pitcher.