moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Remember how well the prospects at GRE were looking out of the gate? They are now 1-13 in their last 14 games. Valera going on the IL didn't help, but pitchers like Witherspoon (7.18) Phillips (8.44) Gartrell (6.45) and even Futrell at 2.95 have seen their ERAs nearly double. Eyanson was promoted. That's not really a bad thing, but it is for GRE. In all fairness, they do have several batters still doing well: .963 YRod .930 Godbout .885 Mason White .885 Cespedes .880 Gonzales (In small sample sizes: 1.241 Ronny Hernandez & .976 Hudson White.) Winnay & I Jackson have not been bad.
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A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
How long do we go on before a player is blamed and sent packing? If it does happen, who it the one? Story? Duran? Maybe start with a lesser piece like IKF? -
That's the sad part. I guess we can point to the pitching a defense and think maybe the bats can just move towards their career norms and we might have a shot, but this offense has looked so pathetic and lifeless that it offers zero hope, right now. Anthony's return is not really a point of optimism. Rafaela's decent hitting seems tentative. Even Abreu & Contreras could do worse, and it wouldn't be unexpected. The whole idea of moving one our worst hitters back to the one slot was absurd. Keeping him there this long exposes the lack of any clearly better choice in the whole system. Durbin looks great on D, but that can't outweigh an OPS hovering between .450 and .500. Story is burnt toast on D and O. Maybe Narvaez can rebound, but it's just a hope. People say wait until the weather heats up, but it's heating up for all teams.
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How about this? 1. Ward LF (.853 AAA) 2. Gasper C (.947 AAA) 3. Abreu RF 4. Contreras 1B 5. Capra 3B (.957 AAA) 6. Rafaela CF 7. Brannon DH (1.257 AA) 8. Mayer SS/ Arias SS (1.072 AA) 9. Sogard 2B (.871 AAA)/ Mayer 2B Traded/DFA'd: Story, IKF, Wong & Yoshida Bench: Durbin, Narvaez, Duran & infielder not starting
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A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
And many hit better in 2024 (before Bregman) than 2026, too. Bregman and Bichette were NOT the "BIG BATS" we needed. -
The Braves are a good team, but this is just plain awful.
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I'd promote Sogard.
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Too bad Rafaela doesn't rob that HR.
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That squirrel was last sited climbing a broken clock.
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He has a 1.0 bWAR at the 25% mark, but his fWAR is just 0.3. How about Story, Yoshida and $10M for Chapman?
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He did things that did not work: Durbin, IKF, Monastario plus making Anthony and Mayer the best FT options, He did one thing that worked: Contreras. He did not trade Duran.
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I agree, but further decline was possible, and his inconsistencies and constant adjustments to his approach led many, including you, to think trading him was a good idea. The OF/DH log jam also was a reason, too. We may never know what was offered for him, but almost anything would look good, now.
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That BAbip is not a good sign we will improve. It actually projects a possible drop off, going forward.
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Agreed, and how much of that can be blamed on Breslow, Cora and the hitting coaches? Most of us felt we needed at least one more big bat, so Brez is and should not be blameless, but the major failure is with those 4 plus Narvaez & Durbin.
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I think everyone expected a drop. I had hopes the younger players would show age progression growth, especially those nearing or in prime, and I felt Story & Contreras were not that far from prime to think they had another good year in them. We all knew much of the our line-up was speculative on upside potential and the floors were low on several players. These "floors" are deep underground caves, at this point.
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A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
They will likely wait for Anthony to make the call on Duran. Monasterio over Story? Call up Sogard? He's been hot. Trade for Paredes long before the deadline? (Mayer to SS and Monasterio/Durbin/Story to 2B?) -
One was supposed to be Anthony, but that was always speculative. I'm not sure adding Bregman and Bichette would have mattered much.
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The AL is bad, and the Sox are dead last in runs scored (161.) They are 19 rus away from 13th and 28 from 7th & 8th. It's not a fluke, as we have an 85 wRC+ and the nest team, TOR, is at 93. We are 5th in BAbip (.293.) We are 4th in runs allowed (174) and 5th in Earned Runs allowed (162) Sox are 3rd in ERA- (89) and 5th in xFIP (3.93) We blow everyone away on DRS: 40 BOS, 18 TBR, 8 NYY & SEA, 4 LAA (more than next 4 teams combined!) OAA 17 BOS, 5 KCR, 4 TOR, 2 CHW & NYY (more than all the plus teams combined!)
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A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Some might be wondering, now, "When will they replace Duran, Story and Durbin?" -
Yes, 19th to 21st would not have been shocking, especially when the whole AL sucks. I thought we might hit 10th, but more likely 11th to 15th.
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Did anybody here or elsewhere project bottom 10? Okay, someone projected bottom 11. Good for them! We are bottom 3, now.
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A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Top 9 batters on Sox by PAs 2025 and 2026: ***2025 Devers .905 2026 Abreu .860 ***2025 Anthony .859 ***2025 Romy .826 2026 Contreras .822 ***2025 Bregman .821 ***2025 Abreu .786 ***2025 Duran .774 2026 Rafaela .762 ***2025 Story .741 ***2025 Narvaez .726 ***2025 Rafaela .708 2026 Anthony .675 2026 Narvaez .608 2026 Mayer .606 2026 Story .529 2026 Durbin .509 _________________ Top 4 bench ***2025 Refsnyder .838 2026 Monasterio .733 2026 Yoshida .720 2026 Wong .674 ***2025 KC .664 ***2025 Toro .659 ***2025 DHam .590 2026 IKF .456 -
Sounds like a cold hard dictator, to me. 😜
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If we were 19th, now, we'd maybe be in the last WC slot. 19th would mean 25 more runs scored. (FYI, fangraphs projected Contreras at .791.)
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He did seem to plan on Contreras and Bregman, and then he pivoted to Durbin & Suarez, so I do think he knew he was making a choice to skimp on O while hoping the pitching and D would take up the slack. The major impact to the drop in O was not so much the lack of signing Bregman, Alonso or Bichette, it was the cliff dives by Duran, Story, and Anthony. (Narvaez has not helped.)
