moonslav59

He's more upset about what we got for Mookie than actually trading him. I'm not sure what other offers were out there, except to get Graterol or maybe Maeda, instead of Downs.

We seem to have a few guys that are doing well and look to be ML ready. For some reason, B loom is waiting them out, and giving everyone a very long leash.

Whitlock has done pretty good, since becoming a starter, but yes, not so great, lately. Wacha was on a role, until he got hurt. He did fine his first start back, and has just one bad start all year. I'm not sure he's an "uh-Oh." Rich Hill looked good in his last start. He has a 2.77 ERA in his previous 6 starts, but I guess a starter is only as good as his last start.

1. Kike 2. Devers 3. JD 4. Bogey 5. Verdugo 6. Story 7. Cordero 8. Vaz 9. JBJ

I didn't mean to sound like I was ripping apart your post or ideas. I actually want us to call up Seabold, German and maybe even Kelly. I'd like to see Winckowski get more chances, too, but maybe not as a starter, as of now.

We need to find the next Uehara. Trading for an established closer will almost certainly NOT happen.

JBJ has been showing signs of life, recently. .949 last 8 games (28 PAs) .833 last 14 games (49 PAs) .817 last 23 games (78 PAs) Even .672 over his last 40 games is better than many of us expected. He leads all Sox OF'ers in bWAR at 0.5.

We may see an input from the farm before the deadline, but I doubt we trade any big prospects, no matter what. I'm not sure the names you mentioned get us a solid closer

JD won't hit .380 the rest of the way, but he may hit more HRs, and Bogey will likely end up better than his current OPS. I'm thinking Kike will end up over .750, and Story over .850. It might come down to Vaz, Dalbec, Cordero, Arroyo and the enigmatic Verdugo. Really, it will come down to pitching and defense. The latter is much improved.

His original team control ends, this year. Why only compare him to the Sox OF of 3-6 years ago? What about the Beni of 2019 & 2020? (Margot had about the same bWAR as Beni in 2016, too.) The JBJ of 2021? What about Verdugo, JBJ and Kike, this year? Margot has a better WAR than the 3 combined!

At the time of the deal, Kimbrel's contract was close to the going rate for a top FA closer. Giving up that many prospects for a FA-type contract seemed like a gross overpay. In hindsight: 1) All the prospects but Margot fizzled. 2) The closer FA market exploded almost the instant we made that trade, and his $13M quickly became a decent to eventually a good price for a top closer, although by the very end of his control years, he became a very shaky closer. 3) One argument, at the time, was that we could have gotten him for less (no Logan Allen) or we could have gotten a starter for that cost (like a Quintana.) No doubt, hindsight has helped almost all of DD's trades to look better, and ultimately, that is how trades and GMs are graded. BTW, this is Margot's last arb year, and he's headed towards an fWAR of above 3. We got three excellent years from Kimbrel at about $39M (before inflation adjustments) 6.5 bWAR/5.7 fWAR Margot is not finished adding to his 11.1 career bWAR (8.8 fWAR) total at about $14M total. The ring has to count for something, but the trade ledger is not complete, yet, and an argument could be made that 7 years of Margot plus $25M less cost to spend on others is close to 3 years of Kimbrel at close to $40M

I think there is a lot of support among posters to give some young arms a shot in the pen over "journeymen" types. I will add a few things: 1. DHern fits the journeyman type. Plus, he's hurt and ha sucked, beyond his low OPS Against numbers. 2. Is Sawamura a journeyman? (He's been in less MLB seasons than DHern or Schreiber.) 3. This is 28 year old Scheiber's 4th MLB season. Is he a journeyman? Our best OPS Against in Relief: .384 Whitlock (currently a starter) .392 Schreiber .539 Strahm .554 Vadlez .593 Houck .619 Danish .645 Sawamura .650 Davis .658 Davis How many of these are journeymen or young prospects? .715 Robles .762 Diekman .908 Crawford .935 Brasier Possible pen arms to be promoted: Starters to pen? Winckowski Seabold Bello Walter Groome Murphy Pen German Kelly Politi Ort E Bazardo J Thompson

True, but he specifically singled out the Winckoski start, as the "chance."

He will likely take less than what he asked for. All players do. Inflation has to be figured in when comparing contracts to Pedey and even the recent Betts deal. I think Devers would take $280M/10 starting with the 2023 season. We could try offering $280M/11 or 12, and then fall back to $280M/10 or even $300M/10. I don't think he's demanding a Betts contract.

So, build the team with mid range contracts like Kike, Wacha, Hill and Strahm, and hope we don't get Perez, Richards, Marwin and Andriese? Build the team with a farm you feel has no value until they start contributing? What's your blueprint to success?

Cashman's the real dummy for keeping an idiot as the manager.

...and then people complained, bitterly, about the Pedey deal, once he got hurt.

...and who are the "bunch of journeymen" starters we might have started, instead of Winckowski?

Yes, and "down the road" is the same as hindsight. Several of these down the road prospects books are not complete, yet, and many of the players we got already have their "books" competed. I don't see many chances for anyone we traded to suddenly jump on the map, but we also have to look at total years of control of the players we traded vs the limited years of control of the players we got. Take Margot, for example. He was traded in 2015, but did not really start playing FT until about 2017. bWAR since 2017 2.4 1.3 1.9 1.0 2.8 1.2, so far (projects to over 3) Comparing to our OF'ers at the time of the trade (2015) may or may not be "fair," but here are the numbers: JBJ 2.0 '15 5.8 '16 3.2 '17 (when Margot started FT) 2.5 2.0 2.0 -0.7 0.5, so far (projects to over 1.5) Beni 0.8 '16 (not FT) 2.8 (Margot's first year) 4.8 1.8 -0.1 (traded after this season) 2.4 1.5, so far (projected over 4, and his final year of control) I won't post Betts, because we know he blows Margot away. 2020 SOX OF (60 Game season) 1.6 JBJ 0.7 Pillar -0.1 Beni 2021 4.9 Kike 2.3 Renfroe 2.2 Verdugo 2022, so far 0.5 JBJ 0.5 Kike 0.2 Refsnyder, JDavis 0.1 Cordero, Duran -0.3 Arroyo -0.5 Verdugo

He has not done well in AAA. Still walking the world on fire.

Fangraphs has us ranked 10th in Defense. I'm not sure what they use for this ranking, since we are ranked at ... 3rd in UZR/150 at +5.4 4th in DRS at +23. Maybe our catching D brings us down. Last year, we ended up ranked 23rd. (11th in UZR/150 at +1.4 & 18th in DRA at +4.)

Our team pitching rankings: 23rd in fWAR at 2.6, despite being tied for 3rd with the lowest BAbip at .266 (Looks like our defense improved a bunch from 2021!) 10th in WHIP at 1.19 10th BA Against at .225 11th best BB% at 8.2% 12th best K% at 23.1% 12th best K-BB% at 14.9% 16th in ERA- at 101 17th in xFIP 3.92 We have the 3rd worst HR/9 at 1.24! Our starters have the 13th best ERA- at 98 and xFIP- at 99. Our pen places 17th in ERA- at 100 and 24th in xFIP_ at 102.

Our everyday players currently rank 5th in fWAR at 8.2, behind LAD 10.8, NYM 10.0, LAA 9.4 and HOU 8.8. (The NYY are 8th at 7.9, TBR are 13th at 6.5 and the much-hyped TOR line-up is 17th at 5.4.) On offense, we place... 2nd in BA at .262 (STL is .263) 3rd in OPS at .745 (just .003 behind LAA) 3rd in SLG at .425 (LAD at .429, LAA .426) 6th in wRC+ at 112 7th in OBP at .320, despite being 28th in BB% at 7.3%) 7th in ISO at .163 Posters complain about all our K's, but we have the 8th lowest K% in MLB at 20.6%. 13 teams are over 23%. (We are 20th in BB/K at 0.35. The mean is 0.38)

I didn't remember it happening all that much, but I went back and looked, and it did happen more than I thought in the earlier years ('03-'04), but it became pretty regular: Papi 3rd/ Manny 4th afterwards- some years never flipped.

Agreed, and until yesterday, he was strengthening his profile.