moonslav59

Some OPS Against Numbers .518 German .545 Z Kelly .559 Bello .576 Winckowski .580 Mata .585 Walter .617 Politi .618 Stock .633 Keller .634 Murphy .636 Gonzalez .641 Encarnacion .657 Uberstine .677 Seabold .682 Drohan

A check on some farm OPS: 300+ ABs 1.043 Kavadas (25 HRs, 51 XBHs and 92 BBs) .902 Rafaela (Rule 5, now in AA) .860 Mayer (Not a bad start) .844 Lugo (Coming on very strong, lately) .831 Stewart (The quiet one.) .830 Jordan (Started slowly.) .817 Wong (Red hot in AAA. Sept call up?) .799 Paulino (Rule 5 in Salem. Protect?) .792 Granberg (only 4 HRs) .783 Northcut (29 Hrs+17 2Bs =46 XBHs & just 36 singles) .780 Bonaci (81 BB and 84 Ks w 23 SBs) .772 Castellanos (Seems like AAAA) .769 R Hern (not bad for a catcher) .761 Koss (AA all year) .731 Fitzy (another AAAA type?) .726 Binelas (24 HRs & 74 RBI) .705 Sogard (at AAA, now) .703 McDonough (20 SB) .677 Hamilton (58 SB & 10 HR) .647 Yorke (Maybe the biggest letdown on the farm?) 200-299 ABs .948 Hickey (61 BB and 65 K & 13 HRs) .891 Casas (missed time w injury) .869 Sikes (.370 OBP) .790 Y Sanchez (Another AAAA profile) .738 Joe Davis (AAAA) .730 Dearden (AAAA) .728 Downs (Another let down) .722 Cottam (not bad for a catcher) 100-199 ABs 1.021 Refsnyder (8 HRS & 23 XBHs in 151 ABs) .987 Cordero (17 XBHs in 117 ABs) .910 Duran (Could not translate to ML level) .874 Mieses (AAA) .896 Bleis (Might be our best hope) Additions to the farm: 1.015 A Almonte (33 yr old w .949 overall in '22) .987 Meidroth (called up to Salem) .961 R Anthony (Drafted) .789 M Romero (Drafted) .704 F Encarnacion (IFA) .675 M Ferguson (.717 overall in '22) .667 E Valdez (.943 OPS & 26 HRs overall in '22) .628 W Abreu (.816 OPS & 16 Hrs overall in '22) .600 F de Leon (IFA) .516 C Rosier (.742 overall in '22) .456 C Coffey (Drafted)

I think it is simpler than we think. Here's my understanding: Option years don't count on the AAV. He got $6M with a $4M buyout, so it's $10M on the 2022 tax line. They don't make adjustments after the fact. $10M counts against 2022, so the $4M buyout is subtracted from the remaining option AAV, so $26M/2 is $13M, but subtract $4M from $26 and it's $22M/2. That's $11M on the tax line for 2023 and 2024, assuming they take the option. I could be wrong.

Most of his choices have been "lose-lose," and when not, it's been "lose-lose-lose" choices.

Probably, a lot of Sox young pitchers might be happy to just make the pen. I'm not sure some can do much more at the AAA level to prove they belong, namely Wink and Seabold who both had very nice OPS Against at that level. Some say Murphy is best suited for the pen. Crawford is a tough call. My guess is Mata, Bello and maybe Walter or Wikleman are our best shots at starters.

We do have an opening at DH, next season. We are likely to go "light" somewhere, and maybe DH is the spot. Current contenders are... L Cordero L Hosmer L Casas L Enmanuel Valdez R Pham R Dalbec R Arroyo I sure hope we can do better than a platoon from this bunch, but we have a lot of slots to fill and may not choose to fill all of them.

Actually, I think he counts as $10M for 2022 ($6M + $4M buyout of option) and $11M x 2 for the two accepted option years. ($26M- $4M counted on '22 divided by 2 year)

That's been our common practice.

Do I need to private message you for permission, first?

OK, but I can still mention things you are not interested in.

I said "essentially" $32M/2, because we paid $6M for nothing, this year. Yes, 26+6=32

Oh, I thought the majority of Sox Nation did not care about the farm, except to trade them for stars. (Not you)

Even if you take away the $6M sunken cost, Paxton is $13M x 2 not $7M x 1

ERA for pitchers is not a good stat, as they often come in with just 1 or 2 outs. Imagine a SP'er's ERA, mif he only had to get 1-2 outs in half his innings pitched. His 1.42 WHIP might be more reflective of how bad he was. But, his .664 OPS Against is pretty good, so....

Yes, but Wacha made $7M. Paxton will essentially make $32M/2, if we take the option.

How do you learn lessons from having lose-lose choices to make too many times?

Every team has fans that claim their manager "lost games," and they probably do, even by making the "right book move" or the "right analytic move." Should all managers be fired, every year? The data shows we've actually won more games than our level of play deserves.

I don't think we'd be trying to learn if Cordero can be our LF'er or DH, next season, but rather does he deserve the 37th to 40th slot of the 40, or not. It might come down to Dalbec, Cordero or take the Pham option. It might be Cordero vs Downs for the final slot on the 40. I'd want to know as much as possible about areas in question than areas we already know enough about. Some can argue we've seen enough of some of these guys, but so many good MLB players started out slow, were never given a long look with their first club, and then go on to do well, later on. It can't hurt to have some looks. Right now, I think Wong and RHern are alternating at Catcher and DH. Call Wong up and let him play. It also allows RHern to catch more in AAA. Now, if they want to find out more about McGuire (starter vs back-up or even if he's good enough to take Plawecki's spot,) maybe keep Wong in AAA. Perhaps pitching is where the most looks could occur, but I don't see Ort ad being someone we need to know more about, unless they view him as a #40 or #41 on the roster, and want to give him one last chance to save his slot.

Maybe Mata and Kavadas are next tier.

So, if large and long contracts are out of the question, and I mean larger than Story's deal, and farm building should not be one of the highest priorities, then how do we get the next Betts, Bogey or Devers? The way the draft and IFA systems are set up, rich teams can no longer grab "unsignable" players at lower picks and then sign them. Gone are the Moncada bonuses. IMO, you have to try and build up the farm, and while none of the prospects Bloom traded for look like they can or will be the next mega star, you have to do the best you can. Bloom's Rule 5 pick-up of Whitlock seems to outshine any past rising prospect in a long time. Houck is the best we've seen in a long time- maybe since Devers. Mayer & Bleis are too far away to know anything for sure, but they might rise quickly enough to be in the 2024-2015 discussion. I like Rafaela a lot, and maybe Bello can match or surpass Houck, someday, but it is hard to see a Raffy in our current system. I'm not convinced Casas is all he's hyped up to be, but just being a plus 1Bman would be a big boost in 2023.

I'd rather find out of Cordero is worth keeping around, now, than next year. (I think he'll still have an option, so keeping him doesn't mean on the 26 in '23.) Now is precisely the time to take the trial and error approach. We have a lot of tweeners on our roster, and if we add as many new faces, including 6-7 Rule 5 protectees, this winter, some will have to go. Let's find out who the fringe keepers should be. Now, if we have plans on bringing Kike back, and want to see if he's back to his norm, than playing him over Cordero makes sense. If we are close to 50-50 on the Pham option, same there. I think we know Dugo will be back, so we could sit or DH him or Cordero and sit JD. I would not play Plawecki after we call up Wong, but maybe keep him around to mentor. For the most part, we are not looking for who will be next year's starters, but who deserves to hold a lower 40 man roster slot for 2023. Who provides the best depth, even if starting in AAA, next spring? We have a lot of "fringe" or "bubble" players. Others call them mediocre, but every team has them, and right now, we need to decide who are the best of the group.

Until the Story signing, Bloom was forced to make massive cuts after 2019 and was severely limited in spending after 2020. It looked like a pretty tight limit after 2021, until suddenly, almost out of nowhere, we signed Story in late March. I wonder, if Bloom was not aware he had that much money to spend, until March. (Hard to know.) To me, there are 3 major factors that have greatly influenced Bloom's time with the Sox, not to mention the lost COVID season: 1) The tight budget until March '22. He was forced to cut over $60M from the 2019 carry-over budget. (Betts & Price Trade, no Porcello, Pearce, Holt and others) He was given about $40M to spend in short term contract for the 2021 season but also had about 8-15 slots to fill on the 40. It looked like his hands were tied, this past winter, until the Story signing. Having to pay Pedey, Price and others to not play at all, plus Sale & Nate spending time on the IL and ERod missing all of 2020. 2) The Farm he inherited. Although many of DD acquired farm hands have risen higher in the rankings than many of us expected, let's look at the actual farm hands that Bloom inherited that have made it to the bigs, and then compare them to what DD, Ben & Theo inherited (do that on your own.) PAs Player OPS 881 Dalbec .757 622 Chavis .704 331 Duran .614 157 S Travis .656 IP Pitcher ERA 146 Houck 3.02 85.1 DHern 5.06 56.1 Velazquez 5.43 40.1 Johnson 6.02 23.1 Lakins 3.86 20.1 Shawaryn 9.74 3) The Veteran Players in decline- some due to age I'm not going to get into great detail, but just about every returning vet from the 2021 team declined in production, except Devers & Vaz. Houck stayed about the same. One can argue Bloom should have had the foresight to expect this and have traded many of the vets before the season started, but is that really something to realistically expect? Yes, Bloom made mistakes and swung and missed on some signings, too. He deserves some of the blame for 2022, for sure. This season sucked, and just about everyone deserves some of the blame. I do think the magical 2021 season might have r4aised expectations a bit too high, but in now way should we have been this bad. I'm optimistic about our future, because the farm and budget look to be in much better shape, but it will all come down to who we add, this winter. It's Bloom's flashpoint, and his legacy rides on his choices.

IMO, if Paxton is healthy, he's worth more than $13M. We already pais $6M for nothing, so it's basically paying him $6M for nothing or $16M x 2 for a dice roll.

You will laugh, though.

We should play all bubble players as much as possible. If we are not going to keep Wong and RHern, maybe we should be playing them both as much as possible. If we need to find out more about McGuire, then keep both catching prospects in AAA. Play Dalbec almost everyday, unless you've decided he's toast, then play Casas in the bigs. Play Cordero as much as possible. Same with Arroyo, although he's not a "bubble" guy. I doubt Downs is a bubble guy, but play him, if he is. Start Wink, Crawford and maybe even Seabold. If Bello is healthy and not on restricted innings, start him, too. Add German to the 40 and call him up. Get a better read on what he might offer in '23. I don't view Ort or Kelly as bubbles, so it seems like a waste, but if they view them as possible 2023 pieces, then yes, pitch them both. I'd like to see Barnes get some high leverage situations to get a better feel about 2023.