moonslav59

I don't want to jinx Barnes, but...

The last Woo Sox game was cancelled. Here some interesting final minor league numbers: Niko Kavadas (515 PAs A-A+ AA) .280 26 86 .443/.547/.990 (58 XBHs and 102 BBs: 5th in minors) Enmanuel Valdez (573 PAs AA-AAA): .296 28 107 .376/.542/.918 (65 XBHs) Wilyer Abreu (579 PAs AA) .247 19 73 .399/.435 OBP/.834 (114 BB 2nd in minors/ 31 SB w just 3 CS) Ceddanne Rafaela (522 PAs A+ AA) .299 21 86 .342/.538/.880 (63 XBH/ 28 SB x 7 CS) Marcelo Mayer (350 PAs A-A+) .280 13 53 .399/.489/.888 (45 XBH/ 17 SB w 0 CS in about a half season) Tristan Casas (334 PAs AAA) .281 12 41 .389/.500/.889 (36 XBHs in about a half season) Nathan Hickey (328 PAs A-A+) .258 16 64 .413/.498/.911 (36 XBHs in less than a half season/ 72 BB -88 Ks) Miguel Bleis (167 PAs in FCL) .301 5 27 (pro-rated is about 20 HRs and 105 RBI) .353/.542/.895 Max Ferguson (527 PAs A-A+) .214 7 60 .366/.339/.705 (96 BB: 9th in minors/ 61 SB w just 5 CS- T9th in minors SBs) Matthew Lugo (524 PAs in A+ AA) .282 18 79 .338/.492/.830 (54 XBH w 20 SB and 7 CS) David Hamilton .740 OPS (70 SB w 8 CS- T3 in the minors) Eddinson Paulino .827 OPS (58 XBHs and 27 SB w 5 CS) Brainer Bonaci .782 OPS (89 BB- 89K and 28 SB w 6 CS) Blaze Jordan .808 OPS (45 XBHs in 463 ABs) Johan Mieses .923 OPS (12 HRs and 27 XBHs in just 192 ABs) Chase Meidroth .977 OPS (.438 OBP) Mikey Romero .874 OPS (79 ABs)

So, not moving down one more slot gives us a .002 chance vs .001?

At most, we can improve 1 maybe 2 slots.

One more game and the Sox minor league season ends. We had some disappointments, but I think, overall, there was more good than bad.

I thought closer to $10M, but I needed a $10M option- LOL.

I meant Turner.

Sox Farm Awards: O Player of the Year Kavadas D Player of the Year Rafaela SP'er of the Year Bello RP'er of the Year German Baserunner of the Year Hamilton Latin Program Andy Lugo Latin Pitcher Eybersson Polanco Lou Gorman Award ("who has demonstrated dedication and perseverance in overcoming obstacles while working his way to the Major League team.") Zack Kelly Baseball America Red Sox Minor League POY: Rafaela

I think Swanson/Nimmo or Bogey/Haniger might be the best 2 choices. If, somehow, we can get Bogey and Nimmo and still boost the pitching staff, I'd be happy. (Warning: I wanted Baez and Suzuki, last winter.)

Here is a little choice: say we figure the budget allows only $40M for SS and RF, and these are your only choices. What do you choose? SS $30M: Correa or Turner $25M Bogey $20M Swanson $15M T Anderson $5M Iggy or Simmons RF $35M Judge $20M Nimmo $15M Haniger $10M Mancini $10M Naquin

Now THAT is insightful.

When teams are losing, it sometimes looks like many players lack desire, but body language can be deceiving.

I'm not expecting Bloom to trade 5 prospects, but I do think he might do more than his biggest prospect trades to date: A Ramirez for Schwarber and Groome for Hosmer and 2 prospects.

With Kike, we get much better if he plays more than 2022- that was my point. Our CF OPS was .680, and yes, some of that was Kike's fault, but I expect much better than .680, and the D will be better, if he plays 145+ games in CF.. Verdugo was better in his first 2 years in MLB and his first year with BOS. He is not improving but needs to.

Would anyone make this BTV approved deal with the Pirates? Houck, Schreiber, Rafaela, Yorke and Wikelman for David Bednar (closer) 27 years old & 4 years of team control 141 ERA+ (3.03 ERA)/ 1.11 WHIP career (11.6 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9) Last 2 years: 2.45 ERA (a74 ERA+) and 1.03 WHIP w 11.8K/9 to 2.8 BB/9 Bryan Reynolds (OF) 27 years old & 3 years of team control .282/.346/.482/.844 career per 650 PAs: .282 24 79 (62 XBHs) Last 2 years: .284 27 75 (57 XBH) .863 OPS

I think they may offer Bogey slightly more than what they gave Story- maybe $150M/6. If he says no, I think they offer Swanson $20M/yr and us that other $5M to add to what they were planning on spending at RF, SP and the pen. That's how I think they plan. They have plan Bs, Cs, ds and maybe even run past the alphabet. I might rather have Sawnson and Nimmo than Bogey and Mancini.

We will also see a hefty arb raise for Devers (3rd Arbs out of 3, tend to be the largest increase.) We also have these arbs: Pivetta, Arroyo, Refsnyder & Dugo 2 of 3 McGuire arb 1 of 3

Our owner also has a history of tolerating a few last place finishes and sub tax line seasons in a row between ring years, so let's hope that aspect is on the way out going forward.

They got McGuire for his D, IMO. Any O is a plus. I expect .650 to.700 from him going forward. Wong can PH for him, late in games. Career OPS .685 McGuire .695 Vaz .703 Wong .655 Plawecki I'm not expecting improved catcher O, but it would not surprise me. Vaz had a nice year on O, the first 4 months of 2022, so I'm not expecting above .740, but I do expect improved D and work with the staff.

I seriously doubt we move Story to SS. Even more for Kike to 2B. If we did move Story to SS, we might sign KWong or hope EValdez can shine with Arroyo as an option, if he can stay on the field.

Love the power, but his patience and eye impress me more, especially when you figure rookies rarely get ump calls in their favor.

If we sign a guy like Nimmo, I think we turn down Pham's $6M option and pay him $1.5M, assumi ng he turns down the mutual option, too. The difference is $4.5M, and he would not be a bad 5th OF'er as I figure ref might be the #4. One other option is to use Pham or Ref as a DH or platoon DH, but I agree, we don't need ref and Pham. If we don't add an OF'er, I'd keep Pham: LF: Dugo & Pham CF: Kike RF: Dugo & Ref

I don't think we move Story to SS, where is arm may be tested or strained. I think they realize Kike is very good on D at 2B, but he is excellent in CF. For those reasons, I think we add a SS, if Bogey walks. We may look to a shorter term solution in hopes of Mayer and or Rafaela rising up quickly, but I don't think management thinks like that. They can deal with logjams when and if they occur much more easily than trying to fill gaps.

No doubt. Our future is not tied to the past, except we have the same owner who has certain tendencies that may continue to lead to success.

I'm less optimistic about 2023 as I was before this season began, but I do see some hope. If we can slightly improve at most positions and make significant upgrades at 3-5 others, I think we can compete for a playoff slot in 2023. I doubt we can compete for a ring in '23 without going way over the tax line (not likely.) I know many might disagree with these assessments, especially at C and DH, but here is my pink sunglasses view: Catcher: I honestly like McGuire & Wong more than Vaz & Plawecki. Remember, Vaz has not always been over .700. He is a career .695 hitter, which is not bad for a catcher and .683 from 2021-2022. It's no secret my views on how he handles the staff. 1B: Casas-Hosmer-Dalbec should be a major improvement over Dalbec-Cordero both on O and D. DH: I truly believe we can match our .750 DH OPS, in 2023 without adding anyone. A platoon or rotation from a few of these guys may get the job done: Hosmer/Dalbec/Arroyo/Refsnyder/Pham/ EValdez. (This is the one slot I have the least faith in.) 2B: A healthy Story & Arroyo could be a major plus-plus here. 3B: A healthy and motivated Devers could easily blow away his 2022 numbers. His D has greatly improved. LF: Dugo + Pham is better than Dugo+ Duran CF: A healthy Kike should blow away our mix & match 2022 CF'ers. RF: I think we need to add here, but Dugo+Refnsyder should be better than JBJ + mix'n'match of 2022. SS: The one area we may decline, unless we bring Bogey back. I would think Bogey could be better in 2023 than 2022. If we take a step back, here, the other plusses should outweigh this minus, especially if we upgrade at RF. (Ref could play 4th OF & DH more) The pitching is the big question mark, and it is so complicated by injuries and unknown roles that it's hard to do a 2022 to 2023 side-by-side comp. We will or may lose: Clear Pluses: Wacha Kinda plusses: Nate Strahm Hill Kinda minuses: Feliz less from Danish & PValdez Clear minuses: Diekman Sawamura Robles Davis Familia maybe of less IP from: Wink, Seabold, Brasier, Ort, Danish, DHern Maybe more IP from... Whitlock Houck Schreiber Crawford Bello Maybe something good from Mata, TWard, Walter, German, Kelly We need to add 3-5 solid pitchers to just improve on 2022. Bringing back Wacha (QO?) would likely not be an improvement over 2022, but would be a very nice start.