moonslav59

I'm not as high on Seabold as I was a while ago, but I think he'll be on the 40 and start in AAA. I see others shown the door before him. We have 5 guys on the 60 day IL that have to be added back, this winter (Sale, taylor, Houck, Paxton & Cordero) and 6 free agents-to-be (Bogey, JD, Nate, Wacha, Hill & Strahm.) We also only have 39 on the 40, now, so after adjustments (+5 and -6), we'll have 38. Two player options: Paxton and Pham. They bring us to 2-4 open slots. Now, Rule 5 additions/protectees: Ceddanne Rafaela Brandon Walter Enmauel Valdez (MiLB FA) Eddinson Paulino Wikelman Gonzalez Chris Murphy (??) Possible to Doubtful: TWard, Bonaci, Hamilton, Santos, Sogard Let's go with 6 Rule 5 additions, not counting someone we might draft. This puts us 2-4 over the 40 man mark, before any additions via free agency or trade and any DFAs, trades or non-tenders. Here is my list of players we may DFA, trade or non-tender: 1. DHern 2. Brasier 3. Cordero 4. Chang 5. Almonte 6. Ort Trade? Bazardo Seabold Winckowski Barnes Downs Dalbec or Hosmer Duran Danish Kelly Of course we won't DFA or trade even half of these guys, but it's not like anyone should cry, if we have to move enough of these guys to make room for Rule 5 and winter additions. I don't see a major roster crunch. At worst, we might need to decide who to keep: Ort or Kelly. Trade Hosmer or Dalbec. Seabold or Wink.

The Rays never sign Story for $140M/6. The Rays would have sold off Bogey a year or three ago. The Rays would have traded Kiki, Nate, Wacha, Hill and Strahm at the deadline. The Rays would never have traded for JBJ's contract or Ottavino's. Need more?

Would you do this accepted trade? Rafaela, Yorke, Wikelman & Duran for Lopez, Luzardo, Berti & Garcia

Agreed, and I'm just throwing this type of trade out there as a way to fill 2 slots with the cost of one. I do think Garcia may bounce back and would be less likely to get hurt as a DH and back-up OF'er.

I think they'd pay some. If we took on Garcia's full $13.25M x 3 lux tax cost, or Soler's $12M x 2 lux cost plus the cost of Lopez's arb, it might still be less than signing the top FA SP'er on this winter's market, and we fill two holes not one. (SP & DH/OF) Here are some key BTV values: 40.4 Rogers 35.3 Lopez 22.1 Luzardo 15.9 Garrett 9.0 Berti -28.5 Garcia -20.1 Soler Would you rather give ... Casas for Lopez or Wikelman for Lopez and Garcia 55.4 Mayer 39.7 Casas 31.5 Bello 21.3 Houck 15.1 Rafaela 12.1 Yorke 11.3 Verdugo 8.7 Bleis 8.7 Romero 6.6 Wikleman

That sounds like a well thought out plan.

Because Garcia costs way less than Verlander, and without an ace, we are toast. (Plus, I had the Marlins paying part of Garcia's contract.)

I think the Marlins take that deal, but I'm not sure I trust Lazardo. Lopez has a 3 year run: Lazardo less than 1.

If this gets us Lopez without trading Casas or Mayer, maybe the drum is finely tuned.

Hosmer had reverse splits, this year, but has been near .750 vs RHPs for a few years and was way better before that. A .750 OPS from 1B is not ideal, but it's much better than the .650 OPS we had, this year. If Casas struggles, we may use these two at 1B, and if he doesn't, we may use those two at DH, where we have a .753 OPS at DH, now..

I tried to suggest a trade on BTV bringing us Garcia and Lopez, but it was not accepted, because the Marlins did not get a good enough player in return. I think it was something like Rafaela or Yorke for Lopez and Garcia plus some cash.

So, you meant sign him? Yuck!!!

Maybe we can get an Ottavino type deal, where they give us something good to go with him.

No, I don't think any one thing comes first. They will offer Bogey what they think he is worth and whenever he responds, they go to look at plan B or C or ... They know they need pitching. They will offer the pitchers they like what they think they are worth. They may sign before or after Bogey. Of course, if Bogey says no, plan B might be to spend more on the pen or RF, and they will wait to make that choice. Is this the type of answer you were looking for?

I answered. I don't think they know on Devers. I think they say good bye to Bogey.

That's a lot of voices screaming! LOL

I'm not sure, if JH and Bloom have already decided on Raffy. I do think they have on Bogey, but I'm far from sure.

If Bogey gets $27M, that adds $7M. If devers gets $30M, that adds $19M. That's about $25M out of the $60M winter spending budget, assuming we re-set. That allows for one more big signing or 2 moderate ones, and we have 4-5 slots to fill beyond SS.

IMO, JH and Bloom were always looking at 2023 or 2024 as being about the time we could get highly competitive. It ta3-5 years to start seeing results from buildi ng up a farm. They thought, by spending near the limit, they could stay competitive in the rebuilding year. They missed badly in '20 and '22. There is no doubt, they missed. I do not think they went all in for 2021 or 2022. 2023 remains to be seen. Just my opinion.

Why not suggest what you think could be done? You have $60M to spend and Bogey and Devers might cost $50-55M. How can any GM make us better by either keeping one or both or my keeping neither. IMO, the only way is for... (probably 2 or more are needed) 1. JH to increase spending 2. Trade some or most of the top prospects 3. Count on prospects to fill key role and they come through 4. Expect the GM to find 6+ Schreibers and Refsnyders this winter IMO, the team has chosen #3 and #4 and may do #1 sporadically, when they feel we are close enough to be just 1-2 key players from a great chance at a ring. Again, it's just my opinion. I have suggested some plans that might work, like maybe trading Casas for a solid SP'er and then signing a cheap 1B/DH on a 1 year deal. I've suggested maybe paying less for Swanson or K Wong, instead of Bogey, so we can spend more on filling other wide open slots. Again, where am even hinting at us not getting worse, if we let Bogey and or Devers go? I've NEVER said anything close to that. My point is, AGAIN, bringing them back may just barely keep us even for a few years, but their cost will either force JH to spend more than he has shown he is willing to do, as in staying over the tax line for 3 or more years, or we will not be able to back-fill high need areas with expensive FAs. Other options are to get help from the farm, which has produced Houck, Crawford, Duran, Dalbec and worse for over 5 years or to trade much or the farm, like DD did, and end up where we are no, 4-5 years from now. What's your plan? I missed another option, I'd gladly hear it.

The Red Sox are my team. I say "we" to mean the Red Sox, just like people say, "I hope we beat the Yankees, tonight." I'm not sure why you pick apart every word I say, but I've been accused of doing the same, so...

I did not say anyone said it.

I know. I don't understand why you have to keep saying, "I have said this many times" and then say it one more time. I know you are very much about the "here and now," and most people are. I think owners and GMs think about more than one thing. That's just my minority opinion.

I already answered this. Will we improve, if all we can do is sign Bogey, Raffy and maybe one other significant player? Unless JH opens the wallter, we will not improve by JUST signing Bogey and Devers. If we plan on re-setting the tax in 2023 or 2024, how do we replace Nate, Wacha, JD and others while spending almost the whole winter spending budget on just staying even by bringing Bogey and Devers back? I think I know your answer- trade the farm away.

Where did I say Story wasn't going to help in 2022 or 2023? The signing did not go against improving long term was the point. No moves made went against 2024 and beyond, except the non moves at the deadline, and trading Groome, this year and A Ramires, last year, and most of all, not staying under the line. All these one year deals scream "REBUILD!" Also, I never said or implied they expected to suck in 2022 or 2023. I even specifically said JH allowed the Story signing because of "rumblings" to do something now. I specifically said he and fans expected much better than what we got this year (just not a ring.) Please don't jump on one statement and read more into it that you clearly know I don't believe is true. JH expected us to compete for the playoffs, this year. The Story signing was a big sign of that, but my point was the Story signing was also expected to help us longer term, as well, which was ultimately Bloom's top priority when signed. It clearly wasn't to win it all in 2020, and even 2021. Do you doubt this to be true? Do I need evidence to prove that?