moonslav59

To me, Houck can and should fill the Long Man role Whitlock has excelled in over the last 2 years. Expecting us to just stay even, at that slot may be pushing it, since Houck filled that role, at times, too. Maybe Crawford, Wink or a kid helps improve upon our past long men. Asking Schreiber to repeat 2022 may be impossible, but maybe just give us a decent 2023 with 60-75 IP. Jansen, Martin, Bleier and hopefully something useful from Joely & Mills, Crawford or Wink or a kid (Mata, Walter, Murphy) should easily be an improvement over 2022, but pen projections are the biggest crapshoot of all positions in MLB. We look better, on paper, despite the early injuries, and that's all we can hope for, at this point. Maybe my hopes for Kluber are too rosy, but I like his chances at improving on 2022, despite being a year older. Paxton is hard to have any hopes for, but the guy is not a bad pitcher, when healthy. Bello & Whitlock may be more important than Sale. Pivetta just needs to stay steady, but as I've pointed out, before, he has had pretty long in-season stretches looking like a solid #2 or #3, so maybe he can pull a Porcello and put together a 32 start stretch for the ages. 2021: 4.09 over first 17 GS (.717 OPSA) 4.10 FIP 2022: 3.72 over a 22 GS stretch (.675 OPSA) 3.61 FIP

Pitching projections (I am not counting MLB players slotted for rehab assignments on opening day:) AAA SP'ers: Bello will almost certainly get a promotion to MLB at some point. Mata should see ML action in '23. Walter should, too. Murphy might get a look- maybe in the pen. Gudino should not. (Santos on IL) AAA RP'ers Ort may see time Mosqueda may not Shugart, Dermody, Feltman- and others hopefully will not, unless they are doing well. AA SP: Drohan should move up when a AAA SP'er is promoted. Van Belle, Liu, Sharp and Olds do not impress me. RP: Denlinger is the unknown. Zeferjahn, Webb and Cellucci may move up to AAA. A+ SP: Wikelman & Uberstine (to AA?) Angel Bastardo and Juan Encarnacion (maybe?) Dobbins & Gambrell (Beni trade) are long shots RP: Guerrero is promising A- SP: Perales and E R-C could certainly move to A+ or even AA by season's end. Paez and Rogers might be promoted. RP: Hoppe & Sena (who knows?) Note: I am far from an expert on prospect evaluation. These are just my opinions.

Not unrealistic. Soxprospects.com projects this opening day AAA roster: C Alfaro 1B Palka 2B Valdez 3B Koss SS Hamilton LF Duran CF Rafaela RF Crook DH Fitzy Bench: C: CHamilton & RHern IF: Goodrum & Diaz OF: Allen, Wilson UT: Sogard AA (I can see Kavadas, Abreu, Yorke and Lugo moving up to AAA in 2023.) C: Scott, Marrero, Erro 1B: Kavadas 2B: Yorke 3B: Lugo SS: McDonough, Max Ferguson LF: Jimenez, Dearden CF: Sikes RF: Abreu, Rosier DH: Binelas A+ (I can see all of these first 5 names moving up a level or more in 2023.) C: Hickey 1B: Jordan 2B: Paulino 3B: Bonaci SS: Mayer LF: BGonzalez CF: E Lopez RF: Uguedo DH: Meidroth A- and FCL every day prospects to watch: C: McElveny & B Brannon 3B: Coffey & FEncarnacion SS Ravelo CF: Bleis RF: Anthony I doubt all these guys move up to AAA in 2023, but if they do, who on the AAA roster gets promoted to MLB, traded, DFA'd or demoted? Kavadas (Palka or CHam/RHern?) Abreu (Allen or Wilson?) Yorke (Diaz of Goodrum?) Lugo (Goodrum or Diaz?) Mayer (Koss?)

Well reasoned. Those 5 are huge. We might need all 5 to do well to have a good chance, this year, and usually hoping for 5 for 5 is a fool's errand. I will say that if 1-2 just do decent, while the other 3-4 do very well, we do have a long list of others who can easily step up and fill the void(s.) Some maybe be long shots, but several are not: Bello: might be #6 on your list. Story: how much time does he miss? How long will it take for him to find his groove, if ever? Kike: can we hope for something like 2021? Kluber: does he have one more good year in that golden arm? Turner: was one of the best second half hitters in MLB, last year. Duvall: is not far removed from leading the league in RBI. Arroyo & Mondesi: has shown they can play well, when healthy. McGuire & Wong/Alfaro: not a long shot they can outperform Vaz/Plawecki Martin & others: can improve the pen, greatly. Paxton, Whitlock, Houck, Crawford, Wink and some kids offer hopes for more than just filling some rotation slots.

My "for fun" one had Alabama winning and Arkansas advancing to the elite 8.

I think it would be useful to see rankings that include all prospects as well as graduated prospects within the last 365 days. Many teams have some quality recent grads, so I'm not sure our recent grads of Bello, Crawford, Wink, Duran, Wong and Ort would help us leapfrog more teams that who leapfrog us, but I'd like to see. If you go back 2 years, we'd add Dalbec, Whitlock & Houck, but before that we have only Devers (2017 graduation.)

To me, for several of these players, it's more about their 2023 OBP than HRs. Of all our hitters in 2022 with 180+ PAs only one had an OBP above the .358 mark set by Devers (Bogey at .377.) Out of our top 13 hitters by PA (0ver 180 PAs) 7 had OBPs of .303 or worse. 10 of 13 were at .328 or less (JD was at .341.) Yoshida is front and center. I'm hopeful he can get over .400 and even .420 is not out of the question. Turner (.366 career, .350 in 2022 and .420 over his last 250 PAs of '22) Casas is a big unknown, but our 1B OBP was .302, last year, so there is hope for massive improvement, here. Casas had a .358 OBP in 95 PAs in '22 and is looking great in ST'ing. His minor league OBP is .374 (.382 in AAA.) I don't think .350+ is unrealistic. Verdugo could improve on .328 in 2022. He's a career .341 batter & .355 from '20-'21) Kike could improve on .291 in 2022. Career .314 is not great but better than .291. He had a .337 OBP in '21 and .322 from 2018-2021. Devers might improve on .358, but he was one of the very few Sox hitters who had a higher 2022 OBP than career OBP. His highest career OBP was .361 in 2019, so hoping for better is a stretch. Duvall's .289 OPB leads me to think we need HRs from him. Some 2022 OBP numbers to ponder: .257 JBJ in 290 PAs .283 Duran 223 .283 Dalbec 353 .287 Plawecki 175 .291 Kike 402 .298 Pham 235 .300 Cordero 275 Guys like Arroyo, McGuire, Ref, Tapia and others may make a mark, but it's hard to know.

Wow! What a messed up bracket! 6 v 5 in the south 9 v 3 in the east 5 v 2 in the midwest 4 v 3 in the west We almost saw a 15 seed (Princeton) go to the final 8. Only one #1 or #2 seed still alive (Texas.) Four teams at #5 seed or worse are still alive.

Soxprospects has both Sheriff and Tapia making the 26, although neither are on the 40. They also have Alfaro in AAA, but he can bolt, if he is not added to the 40, so something has to give, for any of these things to happen. The bottom 4 on the 13 man staff are Crawford, Winckowski, Kelly and Sherriff Possible 40 man roster replacements for Sheriff or others: Mata, Walter, Ort Will start on IL: JRod, Mills, Bello, Paxton, Whitlock The bottom 4 on the everyday player list: Wong, Chang, Refsnyder, Tapia Possible replacements: Wong> Alfaro (if added to 40) Chang> Valdez, Hamilton (not going to happen) Refsnyder> Duran, Rafaela (not going to happen) Tapia> Duran, Rafaela, Dalbec 60 Day IL: Story Starts season on IL: Mondesi If we add 1-3 from Tapia, Alfaro and Sheriff, who gets DFA'd or placed on the 60 day IL? JRod to 60? Mills to 60? Trade someone? Dalbec, Brasier, Ort, Murphy, Hamilton, Valdez? DFA?

It sure seems this way. That's why I said "I'd DFA..." and not "He might be...)

Hope it's just one rehab start, and he joins the rotation for the Sox on the second turn.

He's .855 vs LHPs (.696 v R), but that is the short end of a platoon, and how many teams platoon 1B, anyway? How valuable is a short side DH platoon? Now, .696 leaves some room to get to a decent level, but he's not young, either. To me, 1B like him are a dime a dozen and easily picked up off waivers or via trades with minimal return. I'd still DFA Ort before him, but I'd rather have Tapi and Alfaro on the 40 than Bobby Dee.

I'm wondering if he might be a rare late ST'ing trade candidate, so we can make room for Tapia and Alfaro- both who seem more needed than a poor fielding 1Bman. I know, I know: selling low is a no-no.

Ok, 20th string was an exaggeration.

I totally agree, but many good and even great MLB pitchers started out shaky. Others, like Houck, never looked all that great in the minors, but burst onto the ML scene doing well from day one.

I'm thinking maybe one of the 2 could turn into a solid #5 SP'er, but maybe not in 2023. The odds of this happening may be under 50% but may be close to 50-50. More likely, one may become an okay to decent long man out of the pen. The odds of one filling this sort of role is probably better than 50-50.

He certainly is, as Red likes to call them, "suspect," but it was his first MLB season, so some slack may be called for. He looked pretty good in AAA (.653 OPSA with 62 Ks in 61 IP) This may be his "make or break" season.

Pretty telling- how we came so close with our 20th string pitching staff.

Agreed. Both Wink and Crawford will likely get chances to earn their stay. Their numbers were not great, last season, but pitchers often need at least a year or two to establish themselves and make a stand. Of course, many fail to find a foothold. I'm not overly optimistic about either one, but I do still think both have a decent chance to find a niche, and maybe the odds are better than 50% that one of them makes it. It's hard to assign a percent to any unproven pitcher, but I like the odds than one or two of our bottom SP'ers will make a mark in MLB. Maybe not this year, and I guess what one defines as "making a mark" is likely subjective. Let's say having a season over a 1.0 fWAR (like Nate in 2022) or 1.5 (like Pivetta and Wacha in 2022) is "making a mark," what are the odds each of these guys reach that level at some point in their careers. What percentage would you assign? Beyond Sale, Kluber, Paxton, Pivetta, Whitlock and Houck... As SP'ers only... 45-75% ??? Bello 35-65%??? Mata 30-60%??? Walter 25-55%??? Crawford 20-50%??? Winckowski 15-45%??? Murphy To far away to estimate: Perales Wikelman E R-C (Just an off-the-cuff guesstimate.)

He might be one of the top 5 fifth starters in MLB, but we have to keep him there to be so... LOL! As a #4 he might be top 15. As a number 3, he's likely a bottom 10-15. Some teams have pretty lousy rotations. He might be a #2 on some teams.

Wink has looked pretty good, but Crawford does seem to be a bit better.

Yes, I knew you were just talking about ST'ing. I was just adding a separate observation. I have often wondered, if it's a warm weather thing, too, but JUL is warmer than SEP. He seems to not like it cool or too hot. .535 APR .613 AUG .693 May .750 JUN .940 SEP .983 AUG Maybe it just takes him 4 months to find his stride.

But sucks in April and the first third or more of May. 2021: .558 to May 12th (108 PAs) /.867 afterwards in 345 PAs 2022: .453 to May 12th (91 PAs) / .721 afterwards in 262 PAs

Bobby Dee goes deep. Does make the 26?

Others not spending improves our odds of winning. Apparently, that is his bottom line.