moonslav59

True on my feelings for Vaz and staff-handling, but having Plawecki and Leon did help balance that out a bit, as they caddied certain key SP'ers. I'm not sure Wong will add to McGuire or subtract from him, and he's already a question mark. I do think finding a SS is vital. It keeps Story at 2B and Kike at CF- both solid defenders. It should not be hard to improve on Bogey's D, especially his non-shift D. If the team's success hinge slargely on finding an upgrade at SS defense, how hard is that? I'd like to see more than just that, but this one thing should not be hard to do. We have $28M to spend and can afford to trade some non top prospects to add enough to make the 2023 team significantly better at pitching, hitting and defense. And, it's not magic. It just will take a normal number of injuries, or less, and not as many vet drop offs as we saw in 2022. We also have 10-12 promising prospects or recent grads ready to step in, if needed.

Smiling, now.

Borass said that?

I'd rather we get one better prospect than 2 good ones- same with Ferguson and Rosier for Groome. Same with 4 prospects plus Cordero for Beni, 2 prospects plus JBJ for Renfroe. Farm depth is nice, but having quality over quantity has a lot going for it, too.

It wasn't going to be a summer of trades due to the slight hopes we had for a miracle, apparently.

That's the big unknown, and until and if we ever learn what it was, it's hard to know if we made a mistake by not accepting it. I'm with you on trading him, if we knew we could not or never would match up with the demand.

Let's say we extend Devers and change 3B to equal. That would be 5 better to one massive worse at SS. Overall, a big gain on pitching from 22nd to maybe 14th and Everyday players from 18th to ____ (8th to 10th?) The defense is hard to call. C: is McGuire going to show he can handle the staff? Wong is highly questionable, too, even as just the back-up catcher. 1B: This has to be a big gain on D 2B: Depends on Story playing 2B and playing more innings. SS: Depends on who plays SS, but Bogey without the shift is not that hard to improve on for defense, only. 3B: Devers has been up and down. He looked good in '22: call it even. LF: Yoshida is not known for D, but neither were our 2022 LF'ers, so maybe a sllight loss. CF: Depends on more innings from a healthy Kike. RF: probably a loss, although these were the innings played in RF in 2022: 526 JBJ (just 37% of all RF innings) 432 Dugo 163 Ref 124 Cordero- YUCK! 108 Arroyo- Yuck! 46 Duran- Yuck 24 Davis 8 Almonte Those bottom 5 combined for 210 innings of real bad D. Thatw as 15% of the innings in RF. Was that enough to offset the good JBJ brought to RF D in '22? Maybe somewhat. I see a good chance we improve on D at 4-5 positions and get worse at 2-3 (RF, LF and maybe C)

If he's traded, we'll all agree on a big expected drop-off. It's his "contract year" in 2023, and I think he was playing hurt in AUG '22. Now, he may play hurt in '23, too, but I'm expecting a plus at 3B. Wouldn't a Devers extension, right now, even if there is an opt out in 2-3 years, change the mood of Sox Nation?

Yes, a slight crapshoot factor. Tell me, honestly, how you felt, late July in 2021 vs late July 2022. There are levels of crapshootness, and there was zero gut feelings for me in July 2022. The 2021 team seemed magical, even in July.

I still think counting on Sale and Paxton as just one SP'er makes sense. The big wish would be they both don't go on the IL at the same exact times. In theory, a healthy staff would allow us to put Whitlock back in the pen, but I would not like to see us jerk him back there, after telling him he will be the SP'er in 2023. Gotta love this move. I only hope Bloom does not think he's done. We need a SS and I'd like to see another pitcher- maybe Chafin or Fulmer. Forget the reported trade talk for Wendle: trade for Rojas, instead. Assume we add Andrus or Rojas and Chafin or Fulmer. Find our weakest 2 slots on the 26 and think about how they compare to the previous 3 years: 1. L Yoshida LF 2. R Story 2B 3. L Devers 3B 4. R Turner DH 5. L Casas 1B 6. R Kike CF 7. L Dugo RF 8. R Adrus/Rojas SS 9. L McGuire Bench R Refsnyder RF/CF (Dugo struggles vs lefties) R Wong C (McGuire bats lefty) R Arroyo 2B R Dalbec or L EValdez or L Duran SP1 Sale SP2 Kluber SP3 Whitlock SP4 Bello SP5 Pivetta SP6 Paxton (Mata, Crawford, Wink, Walter, Seabold, Murphy) RP1 Jansen RP2 Chafin/Fulmer RP3 Martin RP4 Houck RP5 Schreiber RP6 Barnes RP7 Joely RP8 Mills (option remaining) or Crawford/Brasier/Taylor/Kelly/German or a SP'er converted

It worries me, too, but there has to be an adjustment period, and I think the staff sucked after the trade deadline, no matter who was catching.

Wow! Only $10M with incentives! I love the $11M option for 2024, even if there might be a buyout.

No, our trouble is finding OF'ers who can play anywhere but LF. Maybe they are placing too much hope in Rafaela.

Pretty much sums it up. I like MRojas as our 1 year bridge to Mayer. Add Kluber and that might be enough. I doubt we add a catcher. BTW, the Braves just extended Murphy.

Okay, a slight crapshoot factor, but enough for me to join the "Crapshoot Club."

I know some longshots win, every now and again. Yes, there should always be some gray area, but to me, and I don't even think it's a close call, our chances of winning it all, the night before the deadline, were so slim, it was clearly worth getting something for JD plus 2 way better comp picks and the ability to reset a year or two later than standing pat. We actually got better in 2022 with the trades Bloom made (McGuire outplayed Vaz and Pham did better than Cordero/Duran,) but we still missed by a mile. IMO, we should have traded JD, Nate, Wacha, Hill and Strahm and then asked Bogey, if he'd be okay with a trade to a contender, that would also strip the QO off his FA winter status. We'd be much better off now, and that would have been clearly better than clinging to some miniscule chance at 2022 glory. Be honest: we all knew that 2022 team was going nowhere by June or mid July at the latest. We were 14 games back in June and 18 back in late July. Yes, not in the WC race, but too many teams were ahead of us to think we'd make the playoffs, and even if we did, nobody would have liked our chances in the 2022 playoffs. Do you think we could have magically turned into the '22 Phillies? You call me "the magician?"

What if fair market value was $200M/9 a year and longer ago and $200M/8 a few months ago? What if the Sox offered that or were prepared to offer that, but BorA$$ told them, "Don't bother countering with anything less than $250/9 or $225/8. Assuming this was the case, and we have no idea it was or wasn't, what was the Sox mistake? Not accepting $225M/8 or not countering with $200M/8 just to call BorA$SS's bluff and se what happened? There is so much to speculate about, I find it hard to pass judgment one way or the other. It does suck Bogey is gone, and it would suck more to learn he could have been here had we made a reasonable offer 1 or 2 years ago or 2 months ago, but even then, what is reasonable? I felt the Story $140M/6 deal was a very reasonable offer, but many here did not. I kinda feel whatever the demand BorA$$ made would hvae similar disagreements on this board, too. If we ever find out the truth, we may see it happen, here.

Or, they misjudged what "fair market value" was all along the way. I guess that could be called "incompetent," but only if it turns out they were wrong about his value. Were they wrong not to offer what Pedro got? Were they wrong not to offer others we lost and who went on not to earn their contract value? I know those had different circumstances, but until we know what the lowest price BorA$$ demanded along the way, we can't know for sure if it was all a lie or incompetence. It might have been the right move all along, and their biggest mistake was not realizing it and trying to get Bogey to agree to a trade.

Nobody ever came close to saying the Sox did not want Bogey "at any price." Why do you constantly invent positions nobody holds? You don't need to to make your points. It's clear the Sox never wanted Bogey at any price BorA$$ demanded, at any point, or else he'd be here. Those are two completely different positions. Also, it's completely possible you are right about Bloom "misreading the room," but also that they really wanted Bogey and would have paid a fair price for him, but their offer never matched the one BorA$$ demanded. If that demand was never lower than $250M/10, I'm not upset we didn't accept it. I would then agree with your position that we should have traded him had we known we'd never meet the demand. Maybe, Bloom never expected anyone would offer $250M/10, and he misread the room on that point, but it's understandable to not expect a $280M/11 offer would win the day 2 years ago, one year ago or even 2 months ago, but it's still a mistake by Bloom or Bloom & Co. It just might not be the type of mistake it is made out to be, if we agree he was never worth $250M/10 and that was what it would take. The argument, then, would be solely about why didn't we trade him? (Remember, he also had a no trade clause.)

Agreed, but I don't think it helped his bargaining position by saying he wanted to stay at SS, and I don't think he'd be happy to be forced off SS after just one season. Of course, $280M makes that a lot easier to swallow.

...or any specific offer BorA$$ asked for, or did I miss that? If BorA$$ never lowered from $250M/10, did Bloom make a mistake by not accepting that?

It was a hypothetical point. Yoshida "may end up at DH" in 2 years, after Turner goes, of 1 year (or less) if Devers goes. Forget I even mentioned Casas.

If that suggest improvement comes true and the pen greatly improves on 2022, the staff, as a whole. could move up sharply from 22nd in fWAR at 9.8 to maybe 14th overall at near 15.0 with some upside potential for better with extremely good health or the addition of Kluber and/or Fulmer or a trade addition. Now, how do you foresee the fWAR differentials at the 9 batting slots? We were 18th at an 18 fWAR: C 11th (2.7) Vaz & Plawecki vs McGuire & Wong 1B 25th -0.6 Dalbec, Cordero & others vs Casas & Turner 2B 20th at 1.7 Story, Arroyo & others vs a healthy Story & Arroyo SS 4th at 5.9 Bogey vs one from Andrus, MRojas, Mateo or Iggy 3B 9th 4.6 Devers & Dalbec vs the 2023 Devers & Turner LF 23rd 0.9 Dugo, Pham & others vs Yoshida CF 24th 1.3 Kike, Duran vs a healthier Kike RF 15th 2.2 JBJ, Dugo & Ref vs Dugo and Refsnyder DH 18th 0.4 JD vs Turner, Yoshida, Dalbec

Agreed, and I'm not trading for him, because I want him, but he would likely not be worse than Dugo on D or O, and if we can get Luzardo, Lopez or another SP without losing a top 5-6 prospect, I'm thinking double yes! A package that brings us Luzardo, M Rojas and Garcia fills all 3 of our highest need areas in one trade. It keeps us under the tax line by enough to still add Kluber and Fulmer, although I doubt we'd do that, too. It shouldn't cots us Mayer, Casas, Bello, Bleis or even Rafaela. I'm not sure they want Dugo or Duran, but giving them Yorke, Romero or Walter would be worth it, to me.

Better than the crapshooter Phillies. I never said upsets don't happen, but by and large, a top 3-4 team wins way more than the bottom 3-4 teams that make the playoffs. It's not even close. Win% or whatever.