moonslav59

I'd be thinking of... FA: SS: Andrus, Iggy, Simmons CF: Duvall Trade: (BTV Value/yrs) SS: A Rosario 10.8/1, J Mateo 3.2/3, A Mondesi 1.5/1, Kiner-Falefa 0.8/1, B Crawford-0.7/1, N Ahmed -5.9/1, P DeJong -7.1/3, J Baez -14.4/5 2B: Wendle 2.5/1 and many others CF: M Taylor 2.8/1 and many others

He's just the first to go down. Your team is maybe the most injury prone team in MLB the last few years. Last year was not so bad, so expect a double whammy, this year.

I'm not sure the Tigers, who sign Baez and the Rangers, who signed Semien and even Seager are happy either, but at least they are healthy.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_pitch.shtml

Sale was pre-arb when he signed that deal with the CWS. He was scheduled for 3 arb years from 2014-2016. It paid him $850K for his final pre-arb season in 2013, then $3.5, 6.0 and 9.15 before the $12M in what would have been his first FA season in 2017. The kickers were the club options for the next two years, which turned into no- brainers at $25.5M then $15M for the final season under that deal. That deal was signed in March 2013. It turned out to be a great team-friendly deal, but Sale had only 286 IP under his belt, at that time, and mayb e injury concerns led him to take all that guaranteed money. Note: he had finished 6th in CY Young voting in 2012, his first full season in MLB, He had 71 IP in 2011.

With arb numbers now finalized, cots has the Sox estimated at $203.5M or $29.5M below the first tax line. Fangraphs has us at $209.4 or $23.6 under. Spotrac has us at $204.9 or $28.6 under. Which ever service is right, we should have over $23M to spend on at least 2 from these 3 positions: SS, 2B or CF and maybe even another decent pitcher.

It's a major swing. The bWAR and fWAR differentials are much more pronounced with pitchers, ad fWAR uses FIP-based metrics way more than bWAR. I think averaging the two really seems to get the placements right.

Exactly. While his FIP was 3.39, it was 3.46 in 2016 and over 3.12 each season from 2011-2013, too. Yes, there was concern, but the risk-reward calculation was not some obvious no-brainer choice. The reward side of the choice was enormous. The risk side was, too. We guessed wrongly. It happens with all GMs.

The 2022 Red Sox FUBAR numbers (bWAR+fWAR/2) FUBAR Player (fWAR+bWAR) 5.95 Bogey (6.1+5.8) 4.65 Devers (4.9+4.4) 2.45 Story (2.4+2.5) 1.95 Vaz (1.7+2.2) 1.20 Verdugo (1.2+1.2) 1.15 Ref (1.3+1.0) Not bad for 57 games & 177 PAs 1.05 McGuire (1.3+0.8) Not bad for 36 games & 108 PAs w Sox 1.05 JD (1.0+1.1) 0.70 Kike (0.5+0.9) 0.50 Arroyo (0.2+0.8) 0.20 Casas (0.3+0.1) Pitchers 2.40 Wacha (1.5+3.3) 2.25 Scheiber (1.7+2.7) 2.05 Pivetta (1.5+2.6) 1.60 Whitlock (1.4+1.8) 1.45 Hill (1.8+0.9) 1.25 Nate (1.0+1.5) 1.15 Houck (0.7+1.6) 0.45 Bello (1.3+0.4) Not bad for 57 IP 0.35 Crawford (0.5+0.2) 0.35 Sawamura (0.0+0.7) 0.30 Strahm (0.3+0.3) 0.15 Barnes (0.1+0.2) 0.10 Kelly (0.0+0.2) 13.2 IP How about Brasier? +0.5 fWAR and -0.8 bWAR= -0.15 FUBAR! Davis at -0.5 (0.3+-0.4)

It seems both bWAR and FWAR have their pluses and minuses. Combining the two kinda flushes those out a bit. The problem is, both B-R and fangraphs are the "go to" stat sites, and neither will ever provide the FUBAR numbers.

True, but how many position players who have had flexor issues ended up getting TJS or what Story ended up getting? I think the move to 2B was expected to greatly lessen the chances of him ever needing surgery. That's one reason why many felt he should not be moved to SS, upon Bogey's departure. It was an unfortunate result of a gamble taken by Bloom & Co. There is still 4 years left on the deal, after 2023. Maybe something good can b e salvaged out of the deal, but these kind of deals are not the kind you look for back-end production or glory from. Add Story to the long list of disappointment or flop major signings by the Sox over the last decade or two.

Why do you think Sale took $145M/5, instead of a David Price type deal? He was better than Price was at his signing and the same age when the contract began. 2 less years $72M less dollars When the Sale deal was signed, he had just put up these numbers in his previous 7 years: 1388 IP (198 IP/yr) 2.91 ERA (143 ERA+) 1.02 WHIP 5.6 K/BB Price's previous 7 seasons before signed by DD: 1428 IP (204 IP/season- just 6 more IP/yr than Sale.) 3.10 ERA (126 ERA+) 1.13 WHIP 3.7 K/BB Of course, Price did not have a violent delivery. Sale had already shown injury issues, and I'm pretty sure Sale "knew this," and that's why he took less than what Price got. It was NOT news to him.

I totally get your and others' opinion, and it wasn't "hindsight" to many posters, but to me, we were talking about Chris Freakin' Sale. He was easily one of MLB's top 3 pitchers for 7 straight years: ages 24-29. It's not like we were extending a 33 or 34 year starter. True, his mechanics screamed of pending problems. I get all that, but we had maybe the best SP'er in baseball on our staff and he was nearing free agency. DD locked him up before he got there, something many are bitching about Bloom not doing with our studs, recently. I get your point about the mistake of pivoting away from Betts and locking up Sale and Nate, instead. In DD's defense, he did make a solid offer to Betts and got an extra year from Bogey with his extension, but he guessed wrongly on Sale and maybe partially with Nate. Sure, the GM is always to blame when things go south, but I liked the Sale extension when we made it, knowing full well, he might miss a season, so I'm not going to throw DD under the bus for extending a great SP'er to 5 years (ages 31-35.) This was not a 7 year deal, like Prices. To me, that deal was worse than Sale's.

Don't forget Rich Hill: 0.9 bWAR 1.8 fWAR 1.35 FUBAR (better than Nate)

Ultimately, when GMs sign previously injured players, they know they are taking a risk and rely on what the doctors say. They weigh the chance or further injury, especially as related to the previous one vs what the player might produce when healthy or mostly healthy. In Sale's case, I think DD did the right thing. He paid Sale 4 years of pay on a 5 year contract, thinking he'd likely miss a year. Had Sale only missed one year and pitched well the other 4, we'd all be happy. 4 years of vintage Sale is worth $145M, easily, in today's market. Any player can get hurt at any time, but the ones who re-injure past and known injuries seem to stick out as dumb signings. Nobody calls the 2022 Verlander signing a mistake, despite his injury history. Some called the Nate 4 year deal a mistake, and maybe it was. He did miss some time, but probably earned that $68M over 4 years. GM are always the fall guys, It's the nature of the business. They are expected to be fortune tellers and be able to predict decline, inclines, injuries and career years. It's totally understandable why they get the blame. They usually make the final decision, unless a ton of money is involved. One can make a strong case against some of DD's choices- like the Sale extension and not locking up our younger players earlier, but I think he did a great job signing players, trading some over-rated prospects for useful pieces and to me, extending one of the greatest SP'ers in the previous decade to a $145M/5 year deal, despite the injury risk, was totally understandable. Of course, in hindsight we can say, why didn't he just wait a year, but had Sale won the Cy Young, he's have cost $250M/6, and we'd b e bitching about why we let Sale go to free agency. It's a now-in job these GMs have, and when they win it all, they usually don't get too much credit or praise.

LOL. Then call it Double FUBAR, because it is double wins above replacement. I always thought OPS should be something like: (.6 x OBP) + (.4 x SLG)

Wouldn't just getting a 1 year SS be easier/better?

Maybe a more realistic FUBAR would be bWAR+fWAR/2.

We've gone through this. Story was not injured in SEP. He didn't even know he was hurt, until he started getting throwing in December. If they thought he should have had surgery before he felt pain, then they should have done it when they signed him or not signed him at all.

Not all over again.

That may end up being true over the next 3 years.

It's not going to be about AAV for 12 years. It will be more than $450M/14- more likely $465M/15 or more.

Why? So he can sign another contract at 36 or 37? I think he'll want a 14 year deal for $450M+.

No, you got it wrong. Bloom convinced JH & Co. that D & D were better than Bogey, Vaz, Nate and Wacha.

No, but you get rid of players with less promise, first. I'd rather keep D & D over Braier and Ort, but that might be the whole list. Dalbec has actually had 2 pretty long stretches of hitting very well, one hitting okay and 2 really bad. I'd give him another year in AAA. He has options remaining. Duran has options, too, but he needs to really impress me, in AAA, to feel he should get another look-see on the big club. They both may be gone by opening day.