moonslav59

I actually posted Hamilton is listed as the 3rd catcher. Was that "wrong?" I think RHern will get the first call, if needed, and he does not have to be mashing to get it. It's just my opinion. I think RHern is going to have a good season.

The Red Sox, who have a base signing pool of $4,644,000, have not confirmed the agreement. The deal is pending a physical. It’s worth noting that the Red Sox forfeited $500,000 from their pools for signing Trevor Story, who rejected a qualifying offer during the 2021-22 offseason. I provided the link in my post: Red Sox 2023 international prospects signings WWW.MLB.COM The Red Sox are in the process of adding an international prospect that has been compared to a young Howie Kendrick. According to industry sources, the club has agreed to a deal with Dominican shortstop Yoeilin Cespedes, who is the No. 25-ranked prospect on the Top 50 International Prospects list.

My post was more directed to MVP. I think RHern has at least an equal chance at being the 3rd catcher added to the 40 as anyone else. I don't think he needs to be "mashing" to get the first chance. I think he is currently 3rd on the depth chart, although SP's has him 4th- behind Hamitlon.

We also lost $500K in IFA bonus pool money by signing Story, last spring.

I said this, last year, before we added Pham. I said that, this winter, before we added Yoshida. Right now, Yoshida, Dugo and Duran are all best suited for LF (or the bench in Duran's case.) Refsnyder is okay in RF, but he's probably best utilized as a LF'er, too. Kike is the only OF'er we have that looks best in CF, and now we are talking about playing him at middle IF'er, and you guessed it, adding another LF'er! WTF!

Well, we did play 54 players in the bigs, last year. the 60 day IL players allow for additions, but others will come and go. It would take a serious catcher injury or cliff dive for RHern to be added to the 40, but stranger things have happened. We have 2 catchers on the 40. Tell me you really think no other catcher will play on the big club, this season but those two.

I'm trying to stay optimistic, and my biggest reason to be bright is that we really don't need "everything to go right" to show significant improvement and contend for a playoff slot. We might need closer to "everything" to advance farther than making the playoffs, but to me we have a lot to be hopeful about. Despite knowing some of these "what ifs" will surely not materialize many listed below seem more likely than not likely. What if... Sale and or Paxton can return to near top form and give us 33-40+ starts, combined. Bello does not need to "improve upon Sept '22," he can actually do worse and still be a huge addition. He had a 2.59 ERA and 2.70 FIP. Whitlock thrives by not being jerked around all year. Kluber just stays healthy and pitches like the 2021-2022 Kluber. Not a lot to ask. Pivetta just stays Pivetta. Houck is given one slot and kept there- most likely high leverage set-up than may include 2-3 IP in some outings. Jansen, one of MLB's most consistent closers for 12 straight seasons (his FIP going over 3.48 just once in his whole career- back in 2018) just gives us another Jansen season. Last 3 seasons have been amazingly similar: 2.86 ERA/ 3.12 FIP. Schreiber just gives us 75% of the 2022 Schreiber. Martin, Joely Rodriguez and Mills do better than Diekman, Davis, Sawamura, Danish & Co. Barnes or Taylor return to near past form. Just one. Just one, maybe 2, if we see a lot of pitching injuries, from Crawford, Winckowski, Mata, Murphy, Kelly, German, Ort and last an likely least, Brasier. Just one or two. McGuire hits near .690 and handles the staff well. Wong does not embarrass himself as the back-up catcher. Casas plays solid D and gives us something better than .240 25 80 (OBP over .320.) Turner backs him up well. Devers might have a bust out season, as he finally reached prime, but we only need him to give us his last 4 season numbers per 162: .292 34 114 (.894 OPS). This is really not expecting more than a player's normal age progression chart would project. Yoshida is the hardest to project or to get a firm grip on what we can realistically expect or hope for. I'm thinking: Low end .280 10 75 (.780 OPS) Middle .290 15 85 (.825 OPS) High end .300 20 100 (.875 OPS) Kike is another tough one to project. How about just to stay healthy and give us numbers between 2021 and 2022. here is his 162 gm avg from '21-'22: .238 19 75 (94 runs and .320 OBP) .721 OPS. I'm hoping for better, but we should only need this. Dugo's age progression chart is out of whack. He peaked at age 24 (2020): OPS+ 93>113>123>107>102. I don't think it's unrealistic to expect him to stop the slide and to just give us his last 4 seasons' average at age 27. 162 game avg '19-'22: .289 15 69 (86 runs and .343 OBP) .778 OPS. Turner is aging and could drop off like a cliff, but his second half to 2022 was a great sign he is far from "done." He hit .968 in his final 246 PAs or 2022. His 162 gam clip would have been .349 25 118! He hit .986 over his last 140 PAs. OPS+ trend 151>130>133>120>116. If he can give us 112-120, it would help, a lot. The two unknown slots are the two Kike is not going to play: SS, 2B or CF. Right now, I see little hope in anyone on our current roster stepping up and filling in a role at even replacement player level. I think we add two more players, so the specific "hopes" are unknown, as of now. There is a slight chance Arroyo could stay healthy for one full season. I'm not expecting or projecting that to happen, but the possibility is there. His 2021-2022 numbers combined would be an awesome addition to the 2023 team: 481 PAs .277 12 61 (.749 OPS and 102 OPS+) Refsnyder's 2022 season looks like a fluke, but he could possibly give us his 2021-2022 avg season in 2023: 334 PAs .277 BA/ .778 OPS & 116 OPS+. I have very little hope in Duran, but I guess miracles can happen. Dalbec has shown he can hit very well in long stretches, but can also look god-awful in equally long stretches. He does offer a glimmer of hope, but we might not need it at 1B/DH/3B. All-in-all, we have a lot of storylines that offer some degree of hope. Some, like Sale and Paxton seem like pipedreams. but many seem more likely to happen than not happen.

Unless he gets hurt, Mata is going to pitch in the bigs, this season. We will also see Kelly, who pitched some in '22 and maybe Ro. Hern & Hamilton.

We have enough money to fill 2 of the 3 slots (the 2 Kike is not playing.) If we don't fill both through free agency, we can find one via trade without losing a key prospect. I am certain we get 2. I think the chance we add 3 is greater than the chan ce at adding just 1. Andrus & Michael A Taylor. Andrus & Wendle. Andrus, Wendle & Taylor.

Yes, and the point being, while Story was helped more by his home numbers than Bogey, and although Bogey was helped by home numbers, too, both were about the same hitters on the road. Before the elbow injury, Story was considered a much better defender. I'm not trying to ignore the injury, but it seems that without it, Story would have gotten much more money than $140M/6.

btv?

Profar seems like he's best suited for LF. I don't get our attraction to LF'ers.

I don't think they want to rush Rafaela, but he's already 100 times the defender Duran can ever be.

MLBTR reports... The Red Sox reportedly made a last-ditch effort to sign Bogaerts in the hours preceding his deal with San Diego, though Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom later downplayed the chances that a reunion between Bogaerts and the Red Sox was becoming a possibility. There were mixed signals from Boston’s ownership and front office all season long about the franchise’s willingness to retain Bogaerts, and from Boras’ perspective, the Red Sox weren’t ever a major bidder. “It was just really clear to us there was a separation where Boston was going to go for Bogaerts, compared to where the market was,” Boras said. “They probably made a decision they were going to sign [Rafael] Devers, and were going to pay only one of them. So we knew at the forefront that Bogey would be somewhere besides Boston.”

Good one. It's almost always about the money. Let's see about the contender thing, later this year.

Sox interested in Andrus & Profar. Must mean we get neither. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/red-sox-interested-in-jurickson-profar-elvis-andrus.html

Soxprospects.com has us signing: Tony Ruiz OF $1M+ Yoelin Cespedes SS $1M+ Luis Arredondo IF ~$200K Argeny Sanchez RHP Dominican N/A Jan-2023 Moises Semerite OF/SS Dominican N/A Jan-2023 Nathanael German IF Dominican N/A Jan-2023 Starlin Nunez IF Dominican N/A Jan-2023 Yoiber Ruiz SS Venezuela N/A Jan-2023 Franklin Arias SS Venezuela N/A Jan-2023 Jhoan Solarte OF Venezuela N/A Jan-2023 Andruw Musett C Venezuela N/A Jan-2023 Jesus Garcia RHP Venezuela N/A Jan-2023 Kleyver Salazar C Venezuela N/A Jan-2023 Chad Delancey IF Bahamas N/A Jan-2023

I agree.

The Sox seem to be doing okay with IFAs after a little down stretch. I'm not worried.

Yup. I hope this kid works out. I hope we can sign one or two more noteworthy IFAs. We lost $500K in IFA bonus pool money by signing Story.

Cespedes compared to Howie Kendrick... Red Sox 2023 international prospects signings WWW.MLB.COM The Red Sox are in the process of adding an international prospect that has been compared to a young Howie Kendrick. According to industry sources, the club has agreed to a deal with Dominican shortstop Yoeilin Cespedes, who is the No. 25-ranked prospect on the Top 50 International Prospects list.

I'm fine with that. Most of the best young players are put at the hardest position: SS. They don't end up there, often enough. Plus, by the time this guy b ecomes ML ready, Mayer will be close to the end of his team control.

I know my point was more about the percentage of money spent on DH/LF and DH/3B/1B, and I get the idea that we were never going to spend big at SS, but it was and still is a high priority need area, and I do still expect us to add a SS by opening day. I hope we also add a 2Bman, so Kike can play CF FT. My 4th with is to add a real RF'er, but I'm not sure that happens. Maybe tied for 4th is adding another solid pitcher, but I think we will not do that. I think we will add 2 players from SS, 2B and CF (Kike moves, if we get a CF'er.)

I'm remaining hopeful my whole point ends up being moot. Add a SS who can defend well. A one year deal makes the most sense, but more is okay. Add a 2Bman, maybe Wendle. Keep Kike in CF. Add a RF'er, maybe Dugo is traded to fill the SS, 2B or RF need. I'd like to see us add Fulmer or Chaffin, but if we do the 3 things listed above, I'm totally fine with spending a lot on LF/DH and DH/1B/3B. I like Yoshida's prospects. I think Turner will do great in Fenway and offers us nice depth at 3B and 1B. He also makes Dalbec expendable or nice AAA depth at 3B, 1B, DH and maybe even 2B or eventually LF. Something as moderate as Andrus, Wendle and Laureno would do the trick for me. Mateo, Mondesi, DeJong or BCrawford are also SS options. Michael Taylor from the Royals might not cost us much. I'm sure there are some 2B bridge options out there beyond Wendle, too.

Story vs Bogey Bogey: .872 Home .758 Away Story: .958 Home .739 Away While the differential is stunning for Story, his away OPS was not very different from Bogey's. Many of Story's away PAs were in pitcher's parks like LAD, SDP and SFG. .658 in SF (200 PAs) .981 in AZ (199) .691 in SD (188) .770 in LA (151) Those were the 4 largest sample sizes outside of Coors. The next largest was 70 in CHI Cubs' park. Maybe they felt he'd be helped by Fenway nearly as much as Coors, and he did end up with a nearly 200 point differential: 2022 .841 Fenway .642 Away