moonslav59

Same red flags- maybe more on Senga. I already explained why I'd prefer Senga- knowing full well, I could be wrong. We needed pitching not LF and barely needed a DH. That is my main reason.

No, of course you can contend when under, but I am pretty certain we will continue the practice of never going over for 3 years in a row. I'll believe otherwise, when I see it. In that light, when does it make more sense to splurge on key need areas? For 2023 or 2024, because it won't be both. Splurging increases the odds on the chosen year, right?

Agreed. If the clock is starting now on a 5 year plan, which I don't think it is or is viewed like that by JH & Co, then even the Yoshida signing was wasteful. I think they view us as starting year 4 of a 4 or 5 year rebuild plan. It's just my opinion. That may be why we didn't go large and long on anyone, because the eye has always been on 2024 or 2025.

No, and not so much because I have more faith in Senga over Yoshida, but because SP was near the top of my list of high need areas- LF/DH was like 7th or 8th. I think we could have done both, but I'd still like getting a SP + SS or RF'er better than a SP and LF/DH. That being said, I think the Yoshida signing will be a good one, but maybe my glasses are too pink.

I hope they don't think any truth to this being a 5 year rebuild starts the clock in 2023.

Going over means a reset in 2024 and pushes any hopes of being a top contender to 2025. I guess that is just after 5 years from 2020 to 2024. We don't lose much, next year: Kike $10M, Barnes $9M and Paxton $4M. I not only think we will reset, I think we should reset in 2023.

I think the "stir" was more about the point about some scouts thinking we grossly overpaid- not that you think we might have. I think you also said you were okay with the signing, so it seems like we all have mixed feeling about the addition. The thing that bothers me the most, and I'm not losing a wink of sleep over it, was that we spent such a big percent of our winter spending budget on LF/DH. I've already been a crybaby on us hording LF'ers and DH was like 7th or 8th on my high need area Christmas list. I, too, am glad we finally spent on the pen, and enough to safely move Whitlock to the rotation without making the pen a net negative, on paper. I still hope we add more than just Whitlock to a rotation now missing Nate, Wacha and Hill (69 starts in 2022 combined,) but if Whitlock can add 20 GS'd to his 2022 total of 9, we only need 2 more SP'er not 3. Maybe Bello and Houck can take up some of that slack, but taking Whitlock and Houck from the pen, makes that now near a push, which is not good. It comes down to Sale and Paxton or some surprise from Mata/Walter/Murphy/Crawford/Wink/Seabold, and I'm not thrilled about even the combined chances of all of them togther.

The list is not pretty. Many of the trades we acquired prospects for included getting a MLB player attached (Ottavino & German/ Cordero w Wink & 4 long shots/ Hosmer with Ferguson & Rosier/ Pivetta w Seabold/ JBJ with Binelas & Hamilton and Downs & Wong w Verdugo.) Only the Valdez & Abreu for Vaz deal looks like a straight MLB for only prospects deal that might add value. The Waiver, Rule 5 and Minor FAs additions looks better: Whitlock Schreiber Refsnyder Kelly

I'm not sure if BTV has updated it's numbers, recently, but here is who they have as the worst signings, so far in 2022: (I missed some by accident near the top. I missed some on purpose as I got down near zero) -18 deGrom -14 Vazquez -11 Correa -11 Rizzo -10 Taillon -8.4 Bellinger -8.4 Estevez -7.8 Quintana -7.8 Stripling -7.6 Pederson -6.8 Montero -6.3 Bell -6.2 Abreu -5.7 Jansen -4.2 C Santana -4.0 Bassitt -3.2 Kahnle -3.0 T Walker -2.6 T Anderson -2.0 Nimmo -1.9 Robertson -1.6 Heaney -0.9 Verlander -0.3 Haniger & Mancini -0.3 Joely Rodriguez -0.2 Manaea TBD Yoshida +0.3 Martin

If we knew Sale and paxton would plan their vacations....errr...I mean IL stints for July, good move.

I think he tell his new GM it's 5 years then springs a surprise when glory is not reached in 4.

If they start the extension clock in 2023, maybe it lessens the AAV for future years by a little bit, and helps explain why $40M is still on the table. Now, a Devers extension will not eat $40M up, since the differential between his expected arb cost and his new AAV is all that counts, but it would take up some. The rest could still be spent on a combo of Kluber, Conforto/Gallo and or Andrus/Segura/Drury.

Hard to argue. How he translates is the great unknown. Then again, how well does Boget, Rodon and deGrom do? What happens, if Bogey pouts when asked to move off SS sooner than he wants? Everyone has some sort of risk when signed long term.

I think Kluber could handle the pressure, and may not be all that "high risk."

It's like the whole Ben the Coffee Boy thing redux. Likely, the same ending. Upper management loves having fall guys. I'm just not sure the masses are so easily fooled, anymore. If Henry continues his pattern of cycling into highly competitive windows, I'm okay with some down turns, but just coming clean would be better, to me. (I know many never want to hear the words "downturn, rebuild or cycle," but the games being played only make it worse.

zI think we add one more high risk picther.

I doubt we see much change from the EOY to BOY rankings, unless we trade a top prospect or add one, but I like our farm's improvement. We recently graduated Whitlock & Houck (mid '21) and Bello, Wong, Crawford, Wink, Duran and Ort in '22. Our top orpsects now are... 1. Mayer 2. Casas (soon to graduate) 3. Bleis 4. Rafaela 5. Yorke 6. Mata 7. Romero 8. Walter (26 years old) 9. Anthony 10. Perales 11. Paulino 12. Wikelman 13. Murphy 14. Lugo 15. Jordan 16. Bonaci 17 E Valdez 18. Hickey 19. Rodriguez-Cruz 20. Kavadas 21. Coffey 22. Seabold (26) 23. Downs (I knew he was overrated) 24. German 25. Drohan 26. Kelly (27 yrs old) 27. RoHern (25) 28. Abreu 29. Brannon 30. Paez 31. Uberstine 32. Hamilton

I doubt anyone foresaw it being half, but I'm pretty sure they liked him at $140M vs Bogey at $170m, at the time of the signing (same years.)

BTV accepted... Houck & Verdugo for Lopez, A Garcia & Berti. Berti could play 2B or RF and lead off, with Yoshida batting second (or flip them). This lengthens the line-up and fills the RF and 2B needs with freeing up the logjam in LF/DH. Lopez may not be a number 1, but he's better than almost all our starters, looking at 2023 projections. Sign Kluber and or Fulmer, and I'd be happy with the winter. We keep all our top prospects and downgrade at only SS with maybe minor downgrades at C and a slot or two in the rotation. Every other slot looks like a plus or equal. Extend Devers and presto magnifico!

But now, that contract looks like a steal. It's half what Bogey got!

I realize the market surge for the best players made the $80M many of us thought might buy us 3-4 big players turned into hopes for maybe 2-3, and then the reality of just Yoshida. Look, I get it. I'm pissed, too. We still have $40M on the table, and the table is full of just scraps, now, except for maybe Kluber. This was the plan they felt "made us better?" There are no explanations, except that it's been one long sham since the first time they said we were going to try and "be competitive." That was, what, 2 years ago? I'm not defending Bloom & Co., here, but this is coming from the top. The top would not allow any splurges, this winter, and that makes it impossible for me to think they could never have truly believed we'd be better, as they promised Kike they would be. On the flip side, and I know we are all pissed, and maybe some want to wallow in the mire for much longer than I do, I am going to try and be optimistic about the extended future and also enjoy watching the kids come up, this year. This is not taking Sox brass off the hook, and maybe it is just how I cope with frustration and anger. (I hate letting if fester, but they are making it so hard to move on.) I'm curious about how well McGuire and Wong will do, and if catcher defense and staff handling matters as much as I think it does. I'm dying to see if Casas is the real thing and actually not see buffoon defense at 1B, this year. I'm hoping Story makes his $140M/6 deal look like the deal of the decade. I'm excited to see what Devers will do, now that he has reached peak prime. I'm dreaming that Arroyo can play a full season. I think E valdez may surprise many of us. The Yoshida addition is a big question mark, but his approach has me feeling positive anticipations. I'm a big Kike fan, and hope he can bounce back from a bad year and stay healthy for 2023. I don't like Dugo in RF, but I like the look of an .800+ platoon of Dugo & Ref. Maybe that outweighs the drop in RF D. We'll see, I'm loving the pen more than even the 2018 one, when Kimbrel was a pins and needles closer, especially at the end of '18. I'm very hopeful about Bello, Mata, Kelly and German. I'm thinking 1-2 might shine from Walter, Crawford, Murphy, Winckowski or Seabold. That's 9 young pitchers with varying levels of promise and skillsets. I'm done "hoping" for Sale to start 25+ games, but he might? If he doesn't, maybe he and Paxton can combine for 25+ or even 33. I like Pivetta as our #5, but he has to stay at #5, or it won't be that pretty, I'd like to see Houck given one role and keep him there. I have my preference, but even if they choose the other option, just stick with it! I'm expecting good things from him. Maybe Barnes and or Taylor shine, again. There is a lot, here to look forward to watching, if you choose to want to be optimistic about. This isn't the same as saying be optimistic about winning even 90 games, but there could be a lot of fun things to watch. (No, I'm not going for the Sox PR job, but I'm not going to be miserable all winter long, either.)

...and the gaping hole at SS, plus the fact that Story is likely much better at 2B.

I would not trade Mayer for Lopez and Berti and probably not even Lopez, berti and Cabrera. I'd want to know more about Cabrera's projected value. I would trade Houck and Yorke for Lopez, Berti (RF/2B) and A Garcia (RF/DH). Then, we sign Kluber and we'd look good. Extend Devers and I walk away from this winter with a slight smile on my face, which might be confused with a smirk.

I'm not for trading Mayer. I just gave him as an example to counter the statement made about Sale and it's always okay to trade prospects for an ace. Change Lopez to a true ace and my point looks better, but I'm still not for doing it, now that we have no SS.

We were all acting on the assumption we were going to reset, so when you look at what Bloom had to spend, for every non move we converted into a needed move, I assumed we had to delete one he made. It's okay to say we could have spent Diekman's money elsewhere, and certainly the money gained by not adding JBJ's contract and just trading Renfroe for prospects or a min wage guy would have added enough to make a difference, but to me, still not enough to overcome the injuries and vet declines we saw. The 135 RBIS from Bogey + JD, alone, made it nearly impossible to win in 2022. Nobody foresaw that. The Wacha, Hill, Strahm and Refsnyder additions would be hard to beat, even in hindsight signings. The Story signing offered the most "what ifs" to Bloom's choices before 2022. I thought it was a good signing, then, and still do, so I can't say we coulda, shoulda on him.