moonslav59

For sure, but when was the last time we said there are 12-16 prospects or recent grads expected to be given a significant chance to win a role on the team? Not counting Whitlock, Houck, Duran... 1. Bello 2. Casas 3. Mata 4. Rafaela (late '23) 5. Walter 6. Kelly 7. Crawford 8. German 9. E Valdez 10. Winckowski 11. Wong 12. Murphy 13. Seabold 14. Hamilton 15. Koss 16. R Fernandez 17. R Hernandez or S Scott 18. Ort or Shugart Okay, the bottom 12-20 look shaky, at best, and some of them may not get a chance in 2023, at all, let along a significant one, but there are hoped one or two of those bottom 8 may fill role or two. The top 8-11 offer better hopes, and we may just need 3-5 to do well and make a big impact on the 2023 team. I don't think hoping 5 out of 20 do well is dreaming.

Not many thought replacing AGon & Beckett with Vic, Dempster, Napoli and S Drew made us better. We finished last in 2012 and the thought was we needed to get a lot better. Never say never, but it's not looking good.

Watch us trade Devers for top prospects, then sign Drury (3B/DH), Andrus (SS), Conforto (RF) and Kluber (SP) and try to sell this as being competitive.

My guess is, our biggest moves to finish the winter will be trades. Maybe we sign Kluber or Fulmer. Maybe we sign Andrus or Segura. Maybe we sign a RF'er, so Yoshida can mostly DH. It sure looks like things are shaping up to be a major disappointment, and maybe only a Devers extension can change the "major" to "moderate. If the extension starts in 2023, then it makes a little more sense of the budget restraint shown, so far, but there will still be a lot of money left on the table- a clear sign that 2023 was not meant to be a highly competitive year. Sad that we couldn't even get to mildly competitive.

I think they will still reset every 3 years. Hal is no George. If others try to keep up with Cohen, like it appears SD, TX and PHI have attempted to do, watch out! Did you read the piece on MLBT how Cohen "missed out" on Correa. It's an interesting insight into negotiations. It looked like the Mets might jump into the bidding, late, but SF and BorA$$ were already "in too deep," that BorA$$ didn't even want to talk. (Strange for him.)

They'd have to do a lot of wheeling and dealing to add other top talent- yeah right- to change that from becoming the near unanimous view by all Sox fans.

I'd rather have someone who can play RF like Conforto over Brantley. I'd prefer Andrus over a 2B option, but the Sox will likely take the one who accepts a 1 year deal, so maybe Andrus is out of the picture. I say no to Nate. His contract will be too long and too large, as will others, of course, but I'd go with Kluber. My second choice would be to sign 2 from Fulmer, Rogers and Chaffin and make Houck our #3/4 SP'er. Roll the dice with Sale and Paxton in hopes they can time their IL stints to never coincide. The, assume they both will be good. 1. Sale/Paxton combo 2. Whitlock 3. Houck 4. Bello 5. Pivetta or 1. Sale/Houck 2. Whitlock 3. Kluber 4. Bello 5. Pivetta (Houck in the pen.)

Maybe the failures of Ben's major signings and even the Price signing and Porcello & Sale extensions have made the to brass put a halt to mega deals and look more towards the $140M/6 for Story and $85M/5 for Yoshida deals as "the way of the future." I'm thinking/hoping that we will spend large and long again, but they are waiting for the right "pounce time," and surely listening to the pessimism on this board, I think we might all agree, this team is not 1-2 major signings away from being a true ring contender. Now, had we been adding 1-2 every year, since DD left, we likely would be2, but the brakes were clearly applied, and when that foot comes fully off the brakes, only JH & Co. knows.

It sure seems that way, but I still wonder how much of the coming up short has to do with JH & Co. I'm pretty sure they have a system for assigning value to players and the max they'd pay for someone they want or need, but is Bloom the main guy involved with the valuation process or the setting of all major offers? If he is, then that may be the driving force behind JH & Co. always saying no. Bloom might come to JH & Co and say, (Last spring) "We concluded Bogey is worth $170M/7, but think an offer of $180M/7 is acceptable. We discussed this number with BorA$$, and he said we are way off. Should we offer more?" Maybe JH & Co. said no, because they trusted the value Bloom & Co gave them. Maybe Bloom is not the major "value setter," or maybe JH & Co. are the ones being the idea that no large and long deals are to be given out, until a certain time- perhaps when they feel another priority is met (like a foundation is established worthy of spending larger on to get us over the top.) Maybe, someday we will find out what all the inner workings were in the Bogey case and other decisions made under Bloom, but for now, it's mostly speculation. We can no longer use what they say as any sort of evidence to support any of our opinions on what went down or is currently going down. In some ways the secrecy is helpful, but it makes it hard for plans to know what the hell is going on. When the team loses, the secrecy only compounds the frustration and anger.

It's the pattern of the Sox winter: "Reported interest" then signing elsewhere. The actual signings had no or very little reports of Sox interest.

It wasn't just Hosmer: 3.5 Groome 1.8 Rosier + 1.2 Ferguson = 3.0

Some BTV values of interest: 6.7 Verdugo 6.5 McGuire 4.2 Paxton 2.9 Seabold 2.6 Winckowski 2.4 Hamilton 2.1 Abreu 1.9 Wong 1.8 Rosier 1.7 Valdez 1.4 German 1.2 Binelas & Ferguson 1.0 Kelly & Refsnyder 0.9 Pivetta 0.7 R Hern 0.5 Gambrell 0.3 C Hamilton 0.2 Downs & F Valdez 0.1 Kike, Ort & de la Rosa -0.3 Joely -5.7 Jansen -7.8 Barnes -37.4 Story 6.4 Bogaerts 3.5 Groome 1.9 Renfroe 0.0 JBJ -0.8 Betts -9.6 Beni -14.2 Vaz

In Lux Tax $Millions 40 Judge 36 Cole 25 Stanton (-$3M paid by MIA) 25 Donaldson 23 Rodon 20 Rizzo 15 Severino 10 Hicks ~10 Torres

According to MLBTR's top Free Agents, here is who is left: 23 Eovaldi 24 T Rogers 33 Profar 37 Drury 39 Chafin 40 Segura 41 Wacha 43 Brantley 44 Conforto 47 J Turner 48 Kluber 50 Rucinski Andrus Fulmer S Lugo W Myers Fujinami Belt Carpenter Smyly Cueto M Moore

The loss of Bogey and JD on offense is big, despite them only having 135 RBI combined, but in all honesty, don't you expect improved offense from... 1B (Casas> Dalbec/Cordero/Hosmer) 2B (Strory over 1/2 Story) LF (Yoshida> Dugo/Pham/Cordero CF (Kike > 1/2 Kike) RF (Dugo & Ref > JBJ/Duran & Co) C and DH may be slight losses, but our catchers hit like .680 and our DHs hit near .760, McGuire & Wong may hit near .680 and a DH combo of Dugo/Yoshida/Dalbec/Arroyo/Ref may hit .760, too. The big loss is Bogey and the lack of RH'd depth. One big RH'd bat and a solid SP'er and I may feel more optimistic. Add a Devers extension, and... (I can't say it, yet.)

We sign him or trade him by May 1st- likely by opening day.

I like Mata, Kelly, German and Walter ahead of Murphy.

So, if Bello didn't advance so quickly and graduate, we'd have a top 5 pictcher. Mata is close enough to count. Walter, Perales & Wikelman have hopes, and we have some very young pitchers on the rise.

The optimism here is deafening.

$177M/7. I had thought he'd be a good option, if Bogey took $200M/8 and he'd get $140M/6, but with Mayer on the horizon, I guess he never was an option. It's Andrus or Story with fill in the blank at 2nd.

I just feel we didn't have to get back to that position.

I'm not feeling very cheery about the winter moves, so far. A Devers extension would help, for the long term, but 2023 looks depressing, despite the odd belief I have that we should be better at 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, CF, RF and maybe even or close to even at DH and Catcher. Our pen is better. We are worse at SS, SP1, SP2. Those 3 slots are big step downs, but overall, it doesn't look as bad as I feel. Right now, I won't try to convince anyone it's snot so bad, because I'm not feeling it, myself.

Good points. Should I list losing Cordero under the "add" column?

I'm actually glad to hear this.

Thanks. I'll edit.