moonslav59

He just agreed to "all" of something I said, so maybe he has a cold or something.

Okay, but we are spending $26M more than 2025, so you have to figure that "23" is outdated. The A's and Royals have such low revenue numbers that they shouldn't even be allowed to have a team.

He might have convinced himself Contreras is a "big bat." Willson does have an .817 OPS since 2013. Only 28 batters have more PAs and a higher OPS than that in MLB, so there is a smidgeon of support to that belief. Want some context? .817 is 10 less than Alonso's 3 year OPS. It's 7 points higher than Duran's. It's 21 points higher than Bregman. 14 more than Tatis. 24 more than Paredes & Machado. Yes, Contreras is aging and has declined, so the 3 year numbers might be misleading, but one could say Bregman's 2025 numbers were an outlier and his downward trend has been evident before his half year spurt to start 2025. How about just 2025? Only 43 batters had more PAs (563) and a higher OPS (.791) than Willson. Bregman did not meet the PAs cutoff of 550, but Willson's OPS was higher than Duran's and only about 20 points from top 30 status. He's not a "big bat," I agree, but he comes pretty close- kinda like how close Gray is as a #2 SP'er. I fully understand how "coming close" has become the Sox mantra under Brez- both in key negotiations and in on the field results. I do think the Ranger signing rose above the "came close" trend. I think combining Gray & Contreras makes for a very significant gain, maybe just not in the areas we needed most.

I disagree with this. A top 6 spending team with all the young and controlled players we have has a clear shot at winning it all in the next 3-5 years.

I've never disagree with this, and my bet is we are no longer 23rd. Not that being 15th or 16th changes the point made all that much.

YES, and add to that, he has to prove he can even hit .700. He also has to show he doesn't need a platoon. That's a multidimensional what if. One might call it "multi-suspect."

I expected more additions to the offense, too. I kinda think Contreras will be about as good as Bregman on offense in 2026, but the loss of 3B defense hurts. Sticking to just the offense, that leaves replacing Devers. If you count just the 330 PAs from Devers in 2025, one can hand those to Anthony and say, there it is fixed. I don't see it that way. We need a middle order bat with some power, I'd like him to be RH'd but at this point, I'd take anything. I'd even settle on two moderate positional improvements over one big bat. The problem is which two? One is easy: 3B or 2B, but the other would be? Catcher? 2B or 3B and send Mayer to AAA (or use him in a trade for a surer bet at the plate?) DH and DFA/trade Masa for nothing? SS? How do we do this and get JH to agree to the spending it would likely take to make happen?

I'm all for JH spending more. My point is, if he won't and Brez was given a guideline on the budget, maybe he should have spent more on bats not arms. He nearly spent on Bregman over Suarez, and that would have balanced the bats vs arm spending about evenly. Our budget is $50M higher than 2024 and about $26M more than 2025 (AAV numbers,) so in a sense Brez has spent the Devers, Bregman, Gio and Buehler money, and then some. However, some was spent on Anthony, Campbell and upticks to Crochet and Chapman plus some minimal arb raises. It's hard to count those as added spending, since none added anything to the roster/team. It counts to JH's wallet, though. Since the new CBO will likely reset the whole lux tax tier and years being over matrix, this seems like the time to not worry about the tax lines. Losing bonus money and dropping draft picks hurts, but I think we can afford to take that future hit, as our farm looks good, and our core of young, controllable and relatively inexpensive players sets us up pretty well for the ext 3-5 years.

AAV is $10.3M x 2 Hicks and $7.75M Duran in '26 and likely more in '27. Maybe we can count those two as $22-23M a year. We might get Suarez for that.

Yes, yes and yes. Vientos is a RHB with more power than Yoshida, and IMO should end up with a higher OPS. Yes, I prefer the prearb Vientos to the $18M x 2 Masa. Baty would be the major plus.

Brez has spent a lot. He chose to spend way more on pitching than offense. I think JH would have let him spend the Suarez or Gray money on a bat, instead. Take away what STL is paying and this is the winter AAV payroll choices: Pitching: $72M $41 Gray ($31M salary) $26 Suarez ($7.5M) $13,3 Chapman ($13M) $1.6M Oviedo ($1.6M) _____________________ Batting: $21.3M $21.3M Contreras ($18M) ____________________ This points to Breslow being the issue more than JH, but I love improving the rotation from the top 3. I like Contreras, but I agree we needed/need more. If the budget is what stops Brez from adding a decent bat at 3B or 2B, then the roster construction choices made by Brez, as in maximizing pitching additions at the expense of bat additions is, IMO, open for criticism and maybe even ridicule.

AL East and fWAR 2025 to Projected 2026: TOR 44.3>48.1 (+3.8) NYY 50.6>47.6 (-3.0) BOS 43.6>45.6 (+2.0) BAL 24.1>45.0 (+20.9) Huh? TBR 31.0> 37.9 (+6.9) Huh?

One other good player besides Suarez, Gray and Contreras? I agree on Schwarber or Alonso- not so much with Bregman. Had we gotten one of those two, we could have used the resources needed to get Contreras to get a 2N/3Bman. I guess we could have kept Willson and DH'd Alonso, too.

I readily admit my bias towards the Sox, and I tend to be more optimistic than many, but I know this team has issues- most glaringly at 3B or 2B and maybe both. I disagree with fangraphs saying our catching will rank 27th in MLB. While Narvaez may regress, he could also improve. I think Wong's injury hurt is projected value, and he will bounce back and make up for any regression by Narvaez. I also think Willson Contreras will love hitting in Fenway, and the Sox ranking of 13th at 1B is a bit off. The 25th ranking for SS could happen. Story's defense has slipped, but he did look better than I expected on offense. He nearly went the whole season without a caught stealing, too. They have us top 7 in all OF slots, so that might make us #1 in overall OF rankings, and our OF depth might be second to none, as well. They have us with the best rotation and SP group. We are ranked 4th in pen value, and we have yet to add anyone, except Watson. I guess some starters will pitch from the pen. To me, we are a decent 3B/2Bman away from a top 5 or 6 team and a big bat (and 2B/3Bman) away from top 3-4 in MLB. Many other teams could make the same claim based on significant improvement at 1 or 2 positions.

I have serious concerns with Mayer, as well as a DHam/Romy platoon. I'm not concerned with Rafaela, Story or Narvaez, except with their health. Our everyday players are more balanced than most team, which may not be a good thing, if we are balanced in mediocrity. We lack big bats, but we also have fewer black holes projected as starters than most teams. A lot depends on who we add. I hope it's a 3Bman like Paredes, so Mayer plays 2B, and we have Romy as a capable back-up or platoon partner for him. If we get a decent 2Bman, we'll have to live with Mayer and eeek Romy/Eaton at 3B, but we may just pass the M's in projected fWAR for 2026. BTW, I'm expecting the M's pitching to rebound in 2026.

Although the Sox are not ranked highly with their everyday players, and that is concerning, these are those 3 players' projected fWAR numbers: 3.2 Rafaela (609 PAs) 2.3 Story (665 PAs) 1.9 Narvaez (423 PAs) 1.5 Mayer (539 PAs) The Sox have 7 players at 1.9 or higher and 8 at 1.5 or higher. The Ms have just 5. Mariner fans should be worried.

Agreed, and Rafaela is an outstanding OF'er who put up a 3.8fWAR in 2025, and that is something harmony uses often. harmony also values projections, and Ceddanne has these three fWAR estimates for 2026: 3.2, 2.5 & 3.4. If he gives us 2.0, I'm not worried, and he shouldn't be either.

I'm not a Vientos fan at all, but Baty hits LH'd and Vientos brings power as a RHB. Baty has a little power, too. Masa might out OPS Vientos, but I think a Baty/Vientos add would be enough for our offense to balance the L-R set up and end the Masa issue once and for all. 1. L Anthony LF 2. R Contreras 1B 3. L Abreu RF 4. R Vientos DH 5. L Baty 3B 6. R Story SS 7. L Mayer/ R Romy 2B 8. R Narvaez C 9. R Rafaela CF Casas offers some LH'd power at DH or 1B. Vientos can back up 3B or 1B better than Masa can back up anywhere. Baty can play 2B, and Mayer can play 3B or SS. Romy can play 1B or DH. Just what Cora likes. Yes, we lose Duran's bat, but I think our offense improves and our budget looks better going forward. Baty and Vientos are pre-arb!

Agreed, and when you figure we will add a decent 3B/2Bman, we came very close to filling all 3 highest need areas and slam dunked saturated the SP'er area. SP# check, double check 2B/3B assume we check Power RHB nearly checked with Contreras. (If the 2B/3Bman can give us some pop or decent offense, we could say all boxes were addressed.)

Esp with STEAMER

Good points. On Duran/Hicks move: we'd have to dump Masa elsewhere to get Suarez.

Are you concerned these Mariners are projected with 250+ PAs and these wRC+? 94 Robles 94 Williamson 94 Emerson

For sure, but some look like better shots than others. Not sure Mayer does. Anthony sure does, but so did Campbell for a couple weeks.

That day may never come, but maybe someone else steps in and gives us more than we hope from Mayer. (Campbell? Arias? Godbout?) All great young players were once "suspects."

Oh, I'm very worried about that. I'm also worried that Story could play 155 game and see his OPS drop by 25-75 points. Mayer could stay 100% healthy and not get over .700. There are more worries than just health with those two.