moonslav59

Houck was our ace before Crochet. His horrible start to 2025 and maybe his ending to 2024 might have been related to the injury not yet discovered. He's worth the $4M gamble towards next year. His arb will not go up. Casas has a chance at leading the team in homers.

These are the estimated fWARs for the remaining 2026 free agents: 4.4 Tucker OF 4.0 Bregman 3B 4.0 Bichette SS (2B) 3.0 Bellinger Of/1B 2.5 E Suarez 3B (1B/DH) 1.8 Realmuto C 1.6 Arraez 1B/DH (2B) 1.1 Moncada 3B (2B) 1.2 Willi Castro (2B) Caratini (C) 1.0 Rengifo 2B/3B Pitchers 3.7 Valdez 3.3 Ra Suarez 2.4 Gallen 2.1 Bassitt (might take the 1-2 year deal JH loves) 1.7 Littell 1.6 Verlander (1 yr deal) 1.5 Jon Gray 1.4 Scherzer (1 yr deal) 1.3 N Martinez, A Civale 1.2 Giolito, Mikolas, M Perez, Sugano 1.1 Quintana, Corbin, Paddack

While it makes sense to us, JH seems to detest paying more than $1.5M in taxes, almost as much as he detests any FA deals over 6 years or $140M. I think the tax is 30% for the second year, right? Going over $5M is a $1.5M tax. $10M over? $3M tax. $20M= $6M tax. That seems acceptable to you and me, but I'm not so sure JH sees it that way. $40M is $12M tax- about what he pasy Hicks. In total, it's $52M than staying at the line $40M below.

Houck is cheaper than Hendriks, Sandoval, Paxton and all the other IL pitchers we dream of returning to glory we signed. It makes total sense they view that $4M as a good gamble. Casas is worth the tiny money spent on him. That $1.6M is just $800K over a min wage guy we'd have in his place if we non tendered him. The guy was an.800+ batter for a long time. He may even play in 2026!

Agreed. The third line affects the precious draft slots and bonus money.

Do you remember the budgets when JH took over? Was his spending really the major factor, early on? The 2001 budget (pre JH) was $110M on opening day and $114M at the end. JH's group took over that winter. The 2002 budget, according to cots was $108M and $110M at the end of 2002. The 2003 budget went down again to $100M and finished at $104M. Maybe you are talking about a few years into his reign, not when he first started. We did see a big jump for 2004, and Foulke was a big piece for the ring year. but do you remember he cut the budget the next two years ($127>123>120.) There was a massive drop from end of year 2004 ($131M) to the end of year 2005 ($117M). Was it really as rosy as you portray it to be? The big spending years (2018-2019)came closer to 2026 than 2003. Sounds shocking, doesn't it? We jumped the spending for 2007, bigly. (Again, with my "cycle" talk you abhor and ridicule.) We won a ring and guess what? Cuts again. ($143>134>122.) That was pretty major, as in a 15% cut. It was time to cycle up again for 2010, but it didn't work as planned. We jumped the spending by $47M from 2009 to 2010 and stayed close to the same for 3 years, as we transitioned from Theo to Ben. We cut by more than $20M for 2013, but somehow won a ring, that year. We can't really call that ring a "JH desire to kill the evil empire" season, can we? 2014 saw about the same budget, then the DD era began, and I think this is the time frame we seem to be linking to 2002-2014. To me, many years in the 2002-2014 era look very similar to 2021 to 2024 and 2025. Ups and downs. Of course the big difference is we were top 3-4 spenders for many of those years. Note: our ranking pre-JH: T6th in '98 ($6M from NYY at #2) 6th in '99 ($4M from #3 and $17M from #1 NYY) 7th in '00 ($4M from #4 and $15M from #1 NYY) #2 in 2001 (The year before JH) just $200K from #1 NYY. That was the JH starting point- essentially tied with the Yanks. Then... -$17M year 1 from NYY -$53M year 2 -$57M year 3 (2004) -$84M year 4 (man, facts hurt, don't they?) -$75M in 2006 -$46M year 6 (ring year) -$76M in 2008 (4th place in spending) -$79M year 8 -$44M in year 9 and -$40 year 10. Was this the golden era you speak of? We didn't pass the Yanks until 2018. That was year 17 out of 24 seasons under JH.

I'm glad we finally seemed to catch on to the deferred money ploy. It might help offset the tax line hit those long extensions to the kids did to the near future budget. Eventually, these extensions will see the AAV become below the salaries, and they may be very helpful, assuming these guys are still doing well. (Campbell has yet to start doing well.) Some felt we jumped the gun or overpaid on Bello and Rafaela, but both look like solid deals, now. Bello's AAV is $9.2M. His salary jumps from $8.7M in '27 to $16.1M in '28 and $19.1M in '29 plus a low buyout option year for '30. ($21M w $1M buyout) Rafaela's tax his is just $6.3M but for 8 years. His salary passes the AAV in 2029. Campbell's AAV is $7.5M. His salary passes the AAV in 2030 ($9M) and goes to $16M by '32. He has two option years: $19M in '33 w $4M buyout and $21M for '34 w no buyout. Anthony's bold extension has an AAV of $16.2M. he better be good! His salary tops the AAV in 2030. It goes u to $29M in 2033 with a $30M option for '34 and no buyout cost.

The Devers extension kicked in in 2024. It marked a change in spending big to keep young stars, but not so much on the budget. The $8M gain from 2023 to 2024 is not all that noteworthy, but it was significantly higher than 2021. The jump from 2024 to 2025 was one of the largest jumps under JH, and if he hadn't dumped Devers, it would have been more. (Note: I made a point of saying much of the uptick seen from JH was "undone by the Devers dump," and this offseason is not over, so that undoing might not be rectified.) I'm not making a prediction on 2026. I'm just saying some highly significant changes in spending philosophies have occurred since the Devers signing. Do you disagree with that? Linking the start of the devers extension period in 2024 to the 2019-2023 period seems as off as linking 2025-2026 to 2003.

The thing that gets me is not the actual second line, it the idea that JH seems to only like to go over the first line by less than a $1.5M tax. He seems to hate paying taxes more than higher salaries with low AAVs, even if the tax is less than the salary-AAV number. (I have no evidence for this, but it seem to be true.) Of course, the 2018 and 2019 seasons had massive ax hits- way more than seasons from the early and mid 2000's and 2010's. I do agree that maybe that second line is not as important as I thought, before. The tax rate does bump up some, but I think it's only on the dollars spent over the second line, so that's kinda minimal.

It's happened a lot, and Cora seems to delight in the idea, so I'm already used to it. Injuries happen. They will in 2026. My point is, we look to have FT or near FT players for every position, including the non-platooned Abreu in RF, as Cora suggested, as well.

We probably will shuffle, and injuries will dictate a lot. I think Cora has stated he really wants Rafaela to stay in CF, and I think h means it, but if we don't add a quality 2B/3Bman, or someone (Story/Mayer) gets hurt, yes, that could change. Maybe Romy and campbell get the first shot on the IF depth chart- maybe not. I do think our team, barring injuries, is also set up for almost every slot to be FT or near FT. The big if to me is Duran at DH. With no quality IF added, much changes.

Nobody is disagreeing that spending was cut and things changed after 2018 or 2019. No, it's not complicated unless you choose to argue with strawmen. Have you also noticed a significant uptick in spending since the Devers extension? Is 2025-2026 really that similar to 2029-2020 and maybe the next 3-4 years? When you said "today" you meant 2019 to 2026? All of it? I'd say the difference between 2025-2026 and 2020-2024 is wider than the difference between 2020-2024 and 2003. We have seen some big changes since the Devers extension- some of them historic: $313M/10 Devers extension blows all extensions away, as well as prices $217M/7 FA deal back in 2017. The extension kicked in for 2024, so from 2024 to today- 2 seasons and 3 offseasons counting this one. The Crochet trade rivals the Sale, Beckett and Pedro trades. The Crochet extension, both in terms of years and dollars rivals the Sale and any other extensions given out, except the Devers one from the same time frame I am presenting. $40M AAV to Bregman blows all other Sox AAVs away by a longshot. $21M AAV given to Buehler was the most since the Sale extension. The most given to a FA SP'er since Price. When was the last time we extended 4 rookies to 6 or more years? There is a short answer: never. We did this in the last 2 years- never close to this before. While the Jansen deal outprices the Chapman deal, we then extended Chapman to 2 years. After the Sale extension and Nate re-sign for 2019 and beyond, we signed no FA SP'ers to more than 2 years, unless you count the Paxton on the IL year one type deals until...you guessed it- 2024 and 2025 with Gio and then Sandoval on a Paxton type deal in 2025. Is this getting too complicated for you? You seriously think this all looks like 2019-2023?

When Sox have pitchers returning from TJS, many write them off at about an 80 to 100% loss. Why do Yankee pitchers not get the same treatment?

Did you know Rodon is expected to begin the season on the IL? If you double Cole's 2023 fWAR, it would be at 3.6. That's damn good, and it matches Sonny Gray's 2025 fWAR. Cole is projected at 1.9 or 2.0 for 2026. Gray is projected at 3.6 to 3.9.

I don't think the Sox go over $264. If they sign Bregman, they will give significant defferals and or make a trade (likely the $7.8M Duran maybe coupled with the $2.7 Crawford) for something that costs less enough to get us under $264. That being said, I don't know what JH will approve. Nobody does. That's been a pretty consistent opinion by me for many years. If he does allow Brez to go over, then my opinions will change accordingly. One big reason I was all over the Marte idea was his $15M AAV number. I wasn't thrilled about trading away top talent. Maybe I underestimated what it would take to get him. I'm open to the idea that I did that, certainly on some of my suggested offers, I did. I exploited the BTV values given to guys like Crawford and Casas. I do think a few of my offers were realistic and borderline overpays not worth it from the Sox side, and even then, maybe not enough for AZ to say yes. I'd rather have KMarte than Bregman. Not knowing what it would take is the wildcard. No to Anthony. yes to Mayer, but then we still need an infielder. I might give Tolle or Early, but that's a big ding on the comp with just signing Bregman to $30M AAV. Part of my like of KMarte is that I felt like adding what we can afford to sign with KMart over Bregman could change the comp. If we traded Duran and Crawford, we could add $10M to the $25M saved by trading Mayer, Witherspoon and Phillips for Marte, and then sign Suarez for that $25M. We'd also have a pitcher (Lodolo?) for Duran. So KMarte, Suarez & Lodolo. Yes, I'll take KMarte & Suarez with no Duran, Mayer, Crawford, Witherspoon and Phillips over signing Bregman and needing to trade Duran just to stay under $264. We pay Bregman $30M a year and maybe get it to $24M AAV, Trade Duran for Lodolo and save another $4M, okay, we're under $264M. We have Bregman and Lodolo with no Duran. We still have Mayer, Crawford and the rest of the AZ package I suggested or others. In that light, but it is jus speculation, yes, I'd choose KMarte and everything else over Bregman and all other stuff. Maybe I missed something. I just kinda hurriedly threw this together. I'm fine with signing Bregman and keeping the KMarte trade pieces in te system or use them for a SP2, too. In short, yes, it sounds like I'm all over the map, but this is not a simple Bregman v KMarte choice, to me.

Point to MVP. You got me. 🙃

So the idea is to leave gaping holes in case our 4th OF'er gets hurt? I'm not for trading any infielders, except DHam, unless we add two.

Has JH's actions changed since the Devers extension? Why not choose that year? It's in your mind- not mine. I'm not going to assume what Ole Red meant by "today." I'll leave that to him.

The Yanks just claimed Kaleb Ort. I rest my case.

Sox with Breggie and Yanks w/o Bellinger and no lower teams make big adds, my AL rankings go: 1. TOR 2. SEA 3T. NYY/BOS 5. HOU 6T. BAL/KCR

I think he has some kind of notification set-up for that. LOL

The offer was Mayer & Duran. Is Mayer a pitcher? Besides, I just said yikes about Ragans being injury prone. He might still be worth the risk, but the problem is we'd need 2 infielders after trading Mayer. Maybe sign Bregman, make that trade and cross your finger. Play Romy at 2B or give KC another crack at it.

Without knowing names, ir is my opinion, we can get a player (2B/3B/SP2-2) as good as Bregman for those two. It hurts losing those two, but my theory involves using the money saved to then sign Suarez or a SP, or maybe two nice RP'ers. Now, the balance looks plus. Of course, if that doesn't happen, then maybe I don't make the trade and we just sign Rengifo and trade a couple bums for a better bum. Yipee!

It means what it says. We haven't gone 5 years since Yoshida. We haven't gone 6 since Story. We haven't gone $170M since Price. We went 3 years on Bregman last winter with a generous optout clause. He's a year older, now. Why is my opinion so hard to understand? Maybe we go $170M/6. I won't be shocked, but I'm not expecting it. I do expect he gets close to that or more. Maybe I'm wrong on that, to. We all have varying opinions on this and other issues.

Mayer plays SS and Romy plays 2B. We also have Campbell and Yoshida who can play LF. I value a quality 3Bman over a 4th OF'er, especially when we have Campbell/Yoshida as our 5th OF'er.