moonslav59

Reports are now saying BOS is paying $5M or $5.5M to MIA in the Barnes for Bleier trade- seems more like it.

I think this one will be traded for a decent prospect, but not a 40 man roster prospect.

Plus, we lose a big chance at saying "Nah, nah, I told you so" to Yankee fans, if German ends up doing very well.

Guessing the next Sox DFA has been an interesting winter challenge. If we trade German for another 40 man player, who is next? Maybe we just keep rolling the snowball until opening day.

I'm pretty sure this is a prelude to a trade, but still, I agree. This kid has promise, and to me, much more than Ort.

Franklin German was just DFA'd to make room for Bleier. German had a crazy-ass OPSA, last season of .492 in 50 IP- best in the whole system. I have to think he'll end up being traded, probably for a not 40 man roster player, within a week. Maybe the Marlins take him, too.

I'm always for adding to the rotation and not to the 5 slot. either. I had hoped we'd add a better SP'er than Kluber or maybe two guys like Kluber, but I can see how they view moving Whitlock to the pen and upping Bello's ML starts can be considered as close to adding two FT SP'ers to the mix from 2022 to 2023. I like our depth, and the fact that we need just one from Sale and Paxton to reach 5 SP'er: Sale/Paxton Kluber Whitlock Bello Pivetta It kinda sucks that our most reliable SP'er and odds on IP leader will be our #5 (Pivetta,) but that just is what it is. Back to the depth: Crawford showed some signs of being a capable starter or spot starter. Winckowski showed some very brief moments of promise, but I do think he deserves another legit chance to prove he can stick. Mata is a wild card, but this kid can throw! There is an outside chance he outshines Bello. Walter and Murphy may be best suited for the pen, but one could surprise, if given a chance to start. Having 11 SP'ers with some sort of promise is not a bad thing, but I'd still prefer more quality over quantity. We might find a solid 5, but if we have to go through 6 failed pitchers, we may be out of it, before finding the golden 5.

xFIP since 2020 (100+ IP) 10. Martin 2.93 14. Bednar 3.16 19. Bleier 3.23 24. Joely Rodriguez 3.36 27. Scott Barlow 3.47 43. A Chafin3.68 56. Jansen 3.82 65. Barnes 3.87 81. Fulmer 4.07

In no way does the Bleier addition make a big difference in the 26 man roster, but we really needed a solid LH'd RP'er, and Taylor's health was a bigger concerns than Paxton's... errr....Sale, errr, okay, it was pretty major. To me, barring injuries, yeah right, here's the opening day 26: 1. L Yoshida LF 2. R Kike SS/2B 3. L Devers 3B 4. R Turner DH 5. L Casas 1B 6. R Duvall CF 7. L Verdugo RF 8. R Arroyo 2B/ S Mondesi SS 9. L McGuire C Bench: Wong C, Mondesi/Arroyo IF, Refsnyder OF, Valdez IF/Dalbec 1B/Duran OF SP1. Sale SP2. Kluber SP3. Whitlock SP4. Bello SP5. Pivetta SP6. Paxton (IL) RP1. Jansen RP2. Martin RP3. Houck RP4. Schreiber RP6. Rodriguez RP7. Bleier RP8. Brasier Farm: SP: Crawford, Mata, Winckowski, Walter, Murphy RP: Mills, Kelly, German, Ort

You crack me up! Maybe some of the rest of the Sox staff will rub off on him. Give the guy a chance!

BTV: -6.7 Barnes +0.8 Blier If $1M goes to MIA, it looks like a +6.5 deal for the Sox. From 2016-2022: 87 RP'ers have 250+ IP. Rankings: fWAR 22 Barnes 5.3 31. Bleier 3.8 bWAR Bleier 5.8 in 300 IP Barnes 4.4 in 432 IP FIP 25. (3.43) Barnes 26. (3.45) Bleier ERA- 14. Bleier 70 51. Barnes 87 WHIP 36. Bleier1.20 65. Barnes 1.30 K/BB 24. Bleier 3.52 51. Barnes 2.78

It never made sense to me, we'd just DFA him for nothing. How many deals like this have the Marlins made, this winter?

Wow! I actually have made many suggested trades with the Marlins that included Bleier. (Not this one, though.) Word is, only $1M is going to MIA, and since Bleier is getting paid $3.5M, it looks like we save $3M on the deal and get a lefty RP'er with some good history.

I think our farm is loaded with players who are poised to make a big step up in 2023. Of course, some won't. We even have guys like Yorke, who maybe took a step down, last year, but who could rebound strongly and get into the top 100 by mid season of this time, next year. We also just graduated Bello.

I liked Wacha and hoped we'd bring him back. I guess Bloom & Co. thought otherwise. (Not the first time on that, for sure.)

I disagree with this assessment. The "whole process more than the actual game?" Totally wrong, and not even close. Many of us fans who like stats and metrics have also played the great game for many years and love it for what it is: the greatest game on the planet. (I've played football and basketball, and was better at each of them than baseball, but baseball is in my heart. As for "identifying" with Bloom, I don't see myself as being a Bloom lover or even admirer. I find myself defending some of the things he's done out of noticing a total or near total lack of context provided in the attacks. To me, Bloom has not done a good job on his major signings, so far, although there haven't been many, and the ones he's made are too recent to judge for sure. To me, Bloom was hired to find decent players at a low cost, and he's not really done all that great in that area, either. Sure, Whitlock, Schreiber, Refsnyder, Arroyo and maybe McGuire might be the types we hoped for, but there hasn't been enough, and even some of them may end up just being 1-2 year splash players. To me, I didn't expect a winning team, for a while, so I wouldn't judge any GM harshly based on W-L records after the slash taken to the 2019 team and budget, and the fact that the farm was pretty much desolate for 5 straight years. It's not about loving or admiring Bloom. It's about context. The 2021 season was an accomplishment, under those circumstances. The 2022 season was an under accomplishment, but not by much, when you factor in the context, the injuries and the declining seasons by too many vets- many of whom were not "Bloom guy." To me, any GM who followed DD would have been handed the same priorities, and number one was to build up the farm. To me, we don't know jack about how well Bloom has done here, so no kudos should be given, but on paper, it looks like he's done a p0retty good job- both developing some of DD's prospects, who were not ranked or regarded all that highly as well as adding some quality and quantity to the whole farm system. The jury is still out on this one, but it looks good, to me, so far. (That could all go in the crapper, pretty quickly, if these big promises are broken.) In reality, I don't really have a great opinion on Bloom. I expected better with the "finding gems in the rough" I've mentioned several times. I had hoped he'd have done better with moderate FA signings, but I realize you get what you pay for, and when you can't pay much, you don't get much, either. This winter, he had way more to spend than ever before. It's his flashpoint time. Other than Sale, this is basically his team, now. His legacy may very well hinge on what happens in 2023. I'm cautiously optimistic things will work out, and I hope the farm and younger players shine, this year, as I see them as our best hope for future rings, but the season could just as easily become a disaster. Anyway, I think your characterization of fans who enjoy stats is all wrong, at least to me. Watching a game is heavenly, to me. Not only do I try my hardest to watch every single game by the Sox, I try to never even miss one pitch or every game out of sheer enjoyment- not out of some mathematical formula in my head.

In the context of the conversation about Bogey, yes many want to blame DD for not locking him up for longer or without an opt out for more money, but we are talking about a few months to a year or tow before becoming a FA. If we tried to extend Jacoby right after his 2011 season, my guess is the price would have been high. If after 2012, maybe the cost would have been lower, but either situation would have been a mistake. His 2013 season was pretty good, but had we extended him then, it would have been a mistake. Why take this way off tangent? It's clear expending some promising, home-grown players would be a mistake. The point is, it's hard to know until after some years have passed. I think we all agree, Bogey looked to be worth $160M/6, and it seems like a mistake to have lost him, IF he would have taken that (big if,) but it's just opinion, as of now.

He got his guy, apparently, in Kluber. He must trust Whitlock, Bello and Pivetta more than we do. He must believe Sale and or Paxton will be healthy enough. Or, he must have a lot of faith in Mata, Crawford, Winckowski, Walter and Murphy. He certainly has a lot of arms to hope 5 do well, but I prefer quality to quantity when it comes to pitching.

That's all I'm saying. I agree the initial $30M offer was a slap in his face. I agree we should have offered him a reasonable deal, even if just to save face with fans. (We both were pretty close in what we thought the top offer should have been: $170M/6 to $190M/7ish.) The reported $162M/6 offer at the very end was likely just a lame attempt at trying to save face, and we'll always be left to wonder if Bogey would have taken that offer 4, 6 or 12 months ago. It sucks we'll never know. It sucks Bloom didn't make an offer like that, Before. It makes me wonder, if he never felt he was worth that amount, and he was afraid he might have said yes. As to it being a mistake- like Ellsbury, only time will tell. As for the Ellsbury departure, I was thrilled he signed with the Yanks at that cost, but yes, much of Red Sox Nation were upset we didn't re-sign him or extend him much earlier at a lower rate. We'll know more about the Bogey negotiations being botched or not, in a few years, but also, the lingering question about what he would have accepted will always cast a shadow on all the speculation.

So, you wish we extended him?

Then, it was a "mistake" to not lock up Ellsbury?

That's probably true on every player that has ever left the Sox for another team or signed an extension. On some players, like ERod, I'm glad we didn't offer an extension a year before he bolted.

It sure looks that way, although I do think the Betts offer was fair or close enough to fair to not be a "mistake.". I would add that the original Bogy extension he signed seemed like a lowball, too, but he agreed. Personally, I think it was a mistake not to try to lock up Bogey earlier, and even a few months ago, especially if he'd have agreed to not have a no-trade clause. If Bogey would have demanded a no-trade clause, I'd want to know the minimum amount he'd have acc4epted to judge whether it was a "mistake" or not, and even then, it would just be my opinion, before the true judgment occurs..

Of course, but that still does not mean it was "botched," unless we know what offer would have been accepted, right? In other words, what difference does it make, if he'd have said no, anyway? Assuming the negotiations were botched because no offer was made, and apparently one was at the end, is pure speculation.

YES! YES! YES! An offer was never made, except for maybe at the very end. That does not mean it was "botched," unless we know what "legitimate" means AND, more importantly, if Bogey would have said yes or no. If he would have said no, we can't say it was botched, can we?