moonslav59

Why won't the fans, if he gets hurt like Story or underperforms like Masa?

They key to JH seems to be more about the years than the AAV, so maybe we can win the Suarez sweepstakes. If he gets 3 years, maybe not. We haven't signed a FA player to 3 years or more since Masas and Story. Before that it was re-signing Nate (2019.) That's 2 players in 7 year- neither one being a mega AAV. The last real large and long FA signing was Price back in 2016- fully 10 YEARS AGO!!!

I would not have come close to matching the Cubs, but if a player being all about money is the reason to not sign a FA, be prepared to never sign any,

Devin Williams? Full throttle!!!!

I thought it was all about winning and making the playoffs to you. No Breggie- no playoffs in 2025. You doubt that? You wish we did not sign him and miss the playoffs? I love it, love it, love it!

Breggie had incentive his last year with HOU, too. His failures that year forced the pillow contract.

Coulda said the same about Crochet, Breggie, Chapman and Wilson, last winter.

Agreed, but we can't ignore losing 1150 PAs from Devers, Breggie, Ref & Lowe. We can make up for it with better pitching or defense or add another bat by spring, but Breggie and Lowe were good on D, and we lost Gio, Dobbins and Wilson, so the pitching and defensive gains are yet to be realized.

All I know is we need to replace the offense lost by the 1150+ PAs from Devers, Breggie, Ref & Lowe. Contreras helps but can't do it all. Anthony should get more PAs, but someone else will get less. .905 Devers (334 PAs) .838 Ref (209) .821 Breggie (495) .790 Lowe (119) I think we improved the rotation. The pen my not be as deep as I'd like it, but maybe Harrison & Crawford can take 80+ pen IP, each.

Casas for Vientos? Romy (1B) for Vientos? (Mayer at 2B)

No way Story March 2025 is equal to March 2026. Not even close! No way we viewed Gio highly in March 2025. Bello just had his best year ever, and you like him the same as March 2025? Rafaela showed vast improvement on his K and BB rates. This is not even close to a push. We had no idea how good Narvaez was, either. Almost nobody liked Wong as the #1. I feel way better about our catchers, now. Sorry, but you are way off on these five guys. I feel way better about Anthony, now than I ever felt about Duran. He's our best player, now. That's six. I view Romy 10 times better than last spring, but we lost Ref, so call that a push, at worst. I counted on zero from Sandoval for 2025. He can't be viewed as a push, now. Our 26 man roster is very close to how I viewed the 2025 roster in March. The Devers and Bregman losses are huge. They might count as two losses each. Those 2 slots and maybe the pen are the only losses. C, 1B, SS, LF, CF, RF, SP1, SP3, Closer, Set-up1, Set up2 are all better looking now than last winter. 2B, SP2, Sp4, SP5, SP6-8 are pushes. 3B, DH and pen depth are worse. Maybe I'm wrong saying we are close to as good as 2025, on paper, even counting Devers and Bregman as 4 losses. We have a lot of wildcards we did not have in 2025. Sure, we had KC and to some extent Anthony and Mayer, and KC & Mayer have not gained any higher wild card status after 2025, but Anthony, Tolle, Early, Rafaela are better wildcards. Hopes for Bello, Abreu, Sandoval, and Chapman, Whitlock and others look better. Adding Gray, Contreras and Oviedo outshine who we traded away.

Exactly. $170M/5 would have been a gross overpay, and knowing JH, it would have meant dumping another salary or not signing anybody else of significance for 5 years. I doubt Breggie takes $5M less to play for BOS, so we'd have had to match the Cubs gross overpay. Bye, bye, Breggie!

I'm not sure it matters what was pre-planned or not. Okay, we used up a bunch of cash to lock up Anthony & Campbell and pay the salaries of Gray and Contreras, but we have yet to replace Devers and Bregman, in kind. Contreras does not replace even one of those two. Maybe the 2025 and 2026 budgets are close enough to say we replaced the money, but subtract Hicks and it's not so close.

If we give up Tolle or Early, we better pick the right one. I doubt involving a third team and Duran gets enough to go to AZ without giving up one of these two. I doubt they value Campbell and/or Casas highly enough to avoid giving one of them, as well. Giving Mayer might work, but then we still need a 3Bman.

Indeed, and that is a concern. That is why I think Duran for Lodolo makes sense. Sign Suarez or trade DHam and Crawford/Harrison for Vientos. Not ideal, but not a bad 26.

Agreed, The Campbell and Mayer outlooks look more sketchy now, and even if KC finds his groove again, it will probably be as a LF'er or... gasp... DH. I'm not sure Arias holds the same hope that KC and Mayer had, so another one and done infielder is not really what we need. We NEED to fix the 2B decade long problem, once and for all. I'm fine with starting 2026 with Mayer/Romy at 2B. I'm actually more than fine with that idea, but that leaves Eaton as our 3Bman, and that needs a major upgrade. Yes, Suarez sucks on defense. If it takes 3 years to sign him, he can play 1B year 3, but that's 2 seasons of rotten 3B defense. I suppose we can move Mayer to 3B, late in games, and that could help, but we really need a big bat like E Suarez. I'd do it. If we trade, I'd rather we find a 3Bman than a 2Bman, but either would be fine, as long as we dont have to give up too much.

In that context, we found a gem.

I guess it depends on what you think a #2 is. Gray is a #2. He did not cost us a top 7 prospect. BTV won't even accept a Duran+Crawford for Lodolo trade, as they view it as too extreme of an overpay. I can see thinking Pablo Lopez, Luis Castillo, Brad Singer and Mitch Keller are #3s not #2's but they could be had for one of our Of'er or maybe even Campbell + Crawford or Harrison. I may be overvaluing Duran, Rafaela and Abreu, but there are some quality pitchers out there that will not cost us Tolle, Early, Witherspoon, Bennet or Valera. One year guys like Bubic won't either. I'm not sure about Peralta: he may take a biggie to get, but 3 years of Duran, 4 years of Abreu and 8 years of Rafaela have real good value.

I really hate giving up a lot for one and dones, but maybe we can extend Hoerner. I think it's more likely we make some minor trade for Vientos or just sign W Castor and a decent RP'er. I'm not confident we do anything bold. I'm not giving up hope, either.

I thought OPS+ adjusted for park factors. Correct me, if I'm wrong. Suarez is no sure bet, but in terms of offense, neither is Bregman or Bichette. To me, the age and D are what worries me most about Suarez. If he puts up a 120 OPS+, the Ks don't bother me one bit. OPS+ (age) last 4 years: Suarez: 129 (30)> 103 (31)>115 (32)> 126 (33) Breggie: 134 (28)>124 (29)>117 (30)>130 (31) Bichette: 128 (24)>122 (25)>70 (26)> 129 (27) Bregman was in decline before his 2/3 season in '25. He will be 32, 33, 34, 35 and 36 for his 5 year deal. Bichette's age is his big plus, not his power and not his any great OPS+ years. He may sign 6 or 7 years- maybe 8. A 7 year deal brings him to age 34. If Suarez signs a 2 year deal, it will be ages 34 and 35. His last season will be younger than Breggie's last season. (3/5ths of Breggies deal would be at the same or older ages than Suarez.) IMO, we should sign Suarez and trade Duran + Crawford (about $10M in AAV) for a quality SP. I think it can be a #2, but certainly it can be a solid #3 type. Maybe we need to involve a third team to get Lodolo, Ryan or the like. Maybe we can trade Campbell ($7.5 AAV) and Hicks ($10M AAV) for someone else's salary issue like Pablo Lopez, Luis Castillo or gamble on Alcantara. We could probably get Keller or Singer for less. Another one year guy could be Bubic. I'm not optimistic we do something like this, but we could without burning a hole in JH's wallet, which seems to be what's holding us back, right now.

How is that dending the FO? Now, if some said this, it might be viewed as defending the FO: Wins: 78 in '23 81 in '24 '89 in '25 I'm upset at the limited budget, too. I'm not sure I can blame Brez for not spending what he's not allowed to spend, and I don't think Bregman or Bichette ate the guys I'd break the trend on. I think maybe Alonso came closest, out of those already signed. I'd have offered more than Polanco got, and since that was a shorter term deal, I have to think that was a FO decision and not a JH one, but who knows how he'll do, going forward. It's frustrating to keep seeing our stars bolt of be traded, and most were prime or post prime, but the history has not been all that bad on those choices. Of course we like to harp on the handful that turned out badly: Lowe, Beltre, maybe Damon, Lester, maybe Sale and worst of all Betts, but we quickly forget Pedro, Mueller, Agon, Beckett, Ellsbury, Price, JD and maybe Bogey, too. Some minor-some major bitching when these guys left, too. No doubt, we are running out of options, and this looks all-to-familiar. I'm not sure anybody is thrilled with the situation, but there is time, and there are options that can more salvage the offseason. We've added Gray, Contreras and Oviedo. We need one more major piece or maybe two moderate to semi-major pieces and we'll look better on paper than last year without even counting on younger players naturally progressing. Am I confident we do what I feel needs to be done? HELL NO, but they surprised me last winter. (Then surprised me the wrong way with the Devers dump and failure to replace, in kind at the deadline.) It sucks watching a quality player leave, and he had a big influence over the younger players on the team. Replacing him will not be easy.

I heard $70M is deferred.

Spotrac. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax

When $160M was already an overpay, yes. So, the Cubs counter with $180M/5, then you'd say pay more, then more, then more...

That's assuming JH would expand the budget, later on. $35M+ a year!?!? No way. That contract would have crippled the budget for 5 years. It's an either/or situation.