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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    You keep fixating on this, and to me those match-ups are very close. I keep wondering why you assume Cole rebounds from injury to pitch like he die 3 years ago (2023) and why Rodon who starts the year on the IL should be viewed in such a glowing light? Gray and Bello both pitched well, last year. I do like Schlitter better than our #4, but we are talking 1-3 starters for the playoffs. Crochet >> Fried Gray = Cole (slight edge to Cole, if he proves he's back) Bello= Rodon (slight edge to Rodon, if we know he'll be back) If we are assuming pitcher return to form, then let's count Sandoval's 3.7 fWAR year in 2022 as in play for our #3 slot over Bello. 3.7 beats any Cole or Rodon fWAR from 2024 to 2025. I'm seeing different criteria being used for Yankee pitchers vs Boston's. Rodon had a 4.53 FIP over his last 20 starts of 2025, but we discount Bello for a "bad second half." Can we go apples to apples, here?
  2. moonslav59
    Fangraphs projected: BOS: 3. Crochet 5.6 9. Gray 3.8 75. Bello 2.0 (105 Sandoval 1.6/ 142 Oviedo 1.2) If you add Tolle & Early combined, they project to 1.7 in 142 IP combined. NYY 12. Fried 3.6 62. Rodon 2.2 82. Cole 1.9 (88 Schlitter 1.8/ 122 Warren 1.5) TOR 10. Cease 3.8 38. Gausman 2.8 48. Bieber 2.5 (52 Ponce 2.3/ 69. Yesavage) I'm not saying I agree with these projections, but they do show our 1-3 slots look fine. Our 4-9 look fine, too.
  3. moonslav59
    He is known as THE "player's manager" for good reason. Word is, he did not even personally ask Devers to play 1B.
  4. moonslav59
    I'd like a better #2 SP'er and have been suggesting it, even after getting Gray, but I like Crochet & Gray more than Cole & Rodon. I like Bello as the #3 more than 20 other team's #3. We may not be great at 4-5, but they are not key for the playoffs. I like our 6-9 (Crawford. Harrison, Tolle & Early) maybe more than 29 other teams. We do have some things to be optimistic about.
  5. moonslav59
    Word is the Sox refusal to give a no trade clause was also a factor, but I'm not sure he's have taken $10M less to get that. Thee Cubs gave him the no trade clause. It was also said the Sox deferrals were spread over "decades".
  6. moonslav59
    I was more upset losing the bidding on Alonso, but we added a decent 1Bman in Contreras. If we can add Suarez or maybe Paredes, without giving up the world, we should be fine. Adding a good RP helps. Adding a #2 SP'er too, would be buttah.
  7. moonslav59
    They will probably still end up getting Bellinger. I heard talk they are shopping Chisolm. I think the Yanks are overrated, but I said the same, last year. BTW, they were in 3rd place for most of AUG. It took a slump by the Sox for them to pass us, but they topped us by 5 games, so it was legit. Pyth had them up 97 wins to 92.
  8. moonslav59
    We dropped the ball replacing Devers at the deadline. The ball is still on the ground. The Bregman loss only highlights the need to add some serious O.
  9. moonslav59
    Me, too. I consider it bottom 3rd in 2024.
  10. moonslav59
    Great points. I still think need a big O add.
  11. moonslav59
    I have wanted KMarte over Breggie and Bichette due to the "quality" position all along, but I do see the downside of losing Tolle or Early plus others. I'd do a trade, now. That being said, I also think adding Gray, Contreras, Oviedo, Suarez and a RP is enough quality to make us clearly better than 2025. Maybe not enough to get us to top 6, but very close. No way do I chose Bichette as the guy to go large and long on, despite his age. I don't care about 250Ks, if the guy has an OPS+ of 120. (Suarez was 126 in 2015.) Paredes was 123. Vientos was 97 but 134 in '24. Donovan was 119 in '25, and no, he won't take a top 4 prospect to get.
  12. moonslav59
    I could care less what others think. The Sox 26, 40 and system as a while is way better now than a few years ago. Our longer term outlook looks as good as anytime since 2017. I guess that counts for nothing, because we failed to grossly overpay Breggie.
  13. moonslav59
    With Casas, I might add Mullins or even Sandlin. I like Romy. I might add Cespedes, Bleis or Castro with him- all prospects I have written off. Maybe we overpay to get him. Again, I'm not high on Vientos, at all. I'm just pointing out a minor move we could do to get us close to being better than 2025. (I also mentioned adding a decent RP.)
  14. moonslav59
    Cotillo reports the Sox offered $165M/5, so they did go 5. That is a fair to overpay offer, anyway you look at it.
  15. moonslav59
    Of course, but many mentioned $200M/6, and we are not sure Bogey would have taken that, anyway. It might not turn out to be be bad, but nobody is crying about losing him, anymore. We may view the loss of Breggie in a similar light, 4-5 years from now. Remember the uproar after losing Ellsbury? And to the Yanks! Cricketts...
  16. moonslav59
    You really feel the same about Story as last winter? Wow. Even if you view the injury risk as the same, nobody thought he'd regain that production level.
  17. moonslav59
    Which is very near even to 2025. Add Suarez (projected 2.3 fWAR) and maybe a pitcher and we'll be projected at 89 wins or more.
  18. moonslav59
    I'm not sure why you value post all star break so highly, but that's your choice. Why not apply the post allstar numbers to Houck? (4.23 ERA/4.53 FIP) How about Bello? 3.43 game 16> '25 and 3.83 post gm 16 in '24? You are selectively using second half stats. Narvaez ended the season doing better than the 2025 Sox catcher numbers. Okay with Gio>Oviedo, but Crawford was worse in '24 than '23. (ERA+ 113>95)
  19. moonslav59
    Sorry. I confused you with Utah's post. My bad. For all the talk about how Narvaez ended 2025, his OPS after mid AUG was still higher than the 2025 catcher OPS of .723. While Wong sucked, his OPS before 7/30 was .392 and after was .635. His defense looked way better in '25 than '24, and Narvaez was very good on D.
  20. moonslav59
    Your methodology was to view how we saw positions last winter vs this winter. How can you possibly view Narvaez as not better? Based on a drop off from mid July to mid August. He was at .719 on AUG 28th and .726 to end the season. I 100% see our catcher position in a way better light than I did in winter 2025. Most of us saw the underlining data on Wong and saw his 2024 offense as being unsustainable. We also saw his defense as highly suspect. Now his defense looks way better, and his offense worse, but he's the back up. Narvaez looks very good on D and better than Wong.
  21. moonslav59
    I'm not thrilled with the idea of praying for plus health and significant upticks from our pre-prime and peak prime players, but it's not something outlandish. I'm no fan of Vientos or Donovan, but if we could get one without losing Duran, and or trade Duran for Lodolo, I think we'd have a pretty decent shot at being significantly better in 2026. Add Suarez and Lodolo/Bubic/Peralta or even Keller/Singer/Gore/Alcantara/Lopez/Castillo and maybe we can reach top 6 projections. Fangraph's has us ranked 9th in projected fWAR, now... 0.2 from #8 PHI 0.3 from BAL (I think we are already better than BAL, but the Cubs might have passed us, so call this even) 0.5 from #6 NYM 2.1 from #5 SEA Getting to #5 will be hard, especially if SEA or NYY add someone this winter.
  22. moonslav59
    I think we see Anthony leading off. Maybe Duran 3rd and Suarez 4th. Contreras has a nice OBP, so maybe we bat him in the key #2 slot. 1. L Anthony LF 2. R Contreras 1B/C 3. L Duran DH/LF/CF 4. R Suarez 3B/1B 5. L Abreu RF (full time) 6. R Story SS 7. L Mayer 2B/3B & R Romy 2B/1B (platoon) 8. R Narvaez C or L Masa DH (if Contreras is at C and Duran in LF or on bench v L) 9. R Rafaela CF
  23. moonslav59
    Speaking of the Yanks. They may not sign Bellinger, despite a reported $30M AAV offer. Rodon is expected to start the season on the IL. He's 33. Cole is coming off a major injury and hasn't had a great season since 2023. He's 35 and some are writing off the 36 year old Gray, who has actually pitched well from 2024-2025. They have some good young pitchers and players, but better than ours? Ages in 2025: 22 Dominguez 24 Schlitter & Volpe 25 Wells 26 Rice & Warren 27 Chisholm & Gil Red Sox: 21 Anthony 22 Tolle & Mayer 23 Early, Harrison & Campbell 24 Rafaela 25 Casas 26 Crochet, Bello, Abreu & Narvaez 27 Slaten If you factor in age progression production, we could see some significant gains on NYY.
  24. moonslav59
    How are we possible a push at the 6 slots you said we were, at the same time last year? I'm using your methodology but correctly.... C: Better 1B: Better 2B: Push (ROMY>KC, but DHam'25>DHam '26)) SS: Better 3B: WAY WORSE LF: Better CF: Better RF: Push DH: WAY WORSE SP1: WAY BETTER SP2: Push or better as Houck was a concern SP3: BETTER (Bello looks better now than before '25) SP4-8: Push Closer: WAY BETTER Set-up 1: WAY BETTER (Whitlock was huge question last winter) Set-up 2: Push (Slaten) Pen depth: WORSE 9 better 9 push 3 worse (2 way worse)
  25. moonslav59
    Anyone wish we signed Bogey to $175M/5 back in spring 2022? (2023-2027) We never hear about him, anymore. It used to be "Betts and Bogey...."
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