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Everything posted by moonslav59
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From 2021 to 2022, Sandoval was a decent pitcher. That was a long time ago, but he's still south of 30 years old. 2021-2022: 236 IP (245 Ks & 96 BB) 3.17 ERA (132 ERA+) 3.44 FIP He had a 3.04 ERA/3.20 FIP and the 22nd best pitching fWAR from May 26, 2021 to the end of 2022. His 74 ERA- was ranked 21st. I doubt he turns into that pitcher after such a short rehab, but maybe he can give us a nice boost. $18M for this guy!
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A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Worst Seven Records in MLB 2026 and Payroll/Tax Rankings 36-55 LAA 15/17 37-54 COL 21/22 37-54 KCR 18/18 37-53 NYM 1/2 37-52 SFG 11/12 40-50 DET 10/10 40-48 BOS 12/6 Interesting to see just COL is in the bottom 3rd tier in spending. Most are mid 3rd tier. If you divided into 2 tiers: 5 of the 7 teams are top tier in one sample and 4 of 7 in the Tax sample. 3 of the top 10 Tax sample teams have bottom 7 records. (4 of the top 12.) -
AL contenders the CWS, TBR & MIN pick one, two and three, while the Sox draft #20. The Sox lost their second & fourth rounders by signing Suarez, but added a Comp B pick in the Harrison plus for Durbin plus trade. That pick is #67, and their 3rd round pick is #96. Some mock drafts have us picking: LHP Hunter Dietz (MLB.com) SS Eric Becker (Perfect Game) 3B Bo Lowrance HS (Bleacher Report) Gotta like how both names are spelled "wrongly." LOL. OF Caden Sorrell (My MLB Draft) OF Derek Curiel (SI) LHP Brody Bumila HS (Fansided)
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A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
BTV accepts: Gray (0.5 yrs), Chapman (1.5) & Duran (1.5) for Josh Hader (2.5 yrs) & Paredes (1.5 yrs) & $3M Gray (0.5 yrs), Chapman (1.5) & Duran (1.5) & $3M for T Shaw (3.5) Swanson (3.5) & P Maton (1.5) -
A couple guys we let get away, we got back (the opposite of adding then subtracting Preister, Harrison and Drohan.) Paez has 35Ks and 4BBs in 31.2 IP since his return. Angel Bastardo 36Ks but 20BBs in 27.2 IP (not so great 5.20 ERA) Some selected Brez farm pitching additions & OPS Against: .454 Delzine .465 Eyanson .508 B Morgan .516 Da. Reyes .551 Berrios, .559 Mayers .556 Olds. .579 La Sorsa, .592 E Rivera, .696 Gamboa .568 Tolbert, .623 Bido, ,624 Gilman, ,646 D Brown .660 Jose Bello, .675 Futrell, .694 Montero .704 Holobetz
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Of course we could have used Harrison and maybe Drohan/Criswell this year. Most likely they'd have been in the pen, but I'm not going to claim those are the big mistakes, when Brez took care of their losses by adding more and better SP'ers. His big mistakes were big bats and middle infield. It was also 3B before Durbin caught fire. One could say DH, but starting the season with Anthony or Duran with Yoshida/Romy, too as DH options, I'm not hitting Brez over the head for neglecting DH. He neglected the offense. I'm fine with saying he neglected the pen, but I think he had the SP depth in mind, and he did extend Chapman while adding Coulombe, Samaniego & Guerrero. It's not easy hitting paydirt on RP'ers- not like those three are "paydirt," but they have done fine. Watson, Kahnle and others- not so fine. I'd still call it a weakness. The context needed is that had we added a big costly bat, we'd have subtracted Suarez. Had we traded for a big bat, we'd likely not have traded for Gray. Ether way may have helped balance the team and make it better, but maybe not by as much as people think, when you factor in the loss of Gray or Suarez. In hindsight, undo the Oviedo trade and get a bat instead- maybe add a prospect or Duran, Bello or not sign IKF, and get someone like BLowe, but that is pure speculation that we coulda done that. We needed to add just the right guy like Schwarber or Alonso, who many of us wanted badly, and then found a SP'er to take the place of Suarez. Undo the Harrison trade to fix that hole, and now w e need a 3Bman, SS and 2Bman. It's not as simple as saying "We just needed to sign Alonso." Yes, JH could have, but we all know he would not have allowed Brez to sign Suarez & Alonso. Even if we subtracted IKF $6M and traded Duran $8M, I doubt JH says yes. The AAV was just too high for him to accept.
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I've agreed: what we got back for Sale sucked. What we got back for Priester looked like a suck, but is now TBD. What we got back for Harrison & Drohan started out as a major suck, but is moving towards a TBD, now. Criswell? Seriously? Hell, Fitts had a better outlook than he did. What about what we gave up for Gray, Crochet, Bennett & Oviedo? The Suarez signing might be the best FA SP'er signed since I can't remember... surely better than Half-Price. The Tolle draft might be the best Sox pitcher drafted since Lester. I look at the totality of the rotation moves as over 2 dozen pitchers have been added and subtracted in Brez's 3 seasons. It's a major net plus, so I'll take 1 bad trade and possible 2 others and 2 bad signings (Buehler & Sandoval) for the 4-6 good trades and 2-3 good signings. This is not Brez's weak area.
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A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Of course not, and that is the main reason they may take on salary dumps rather than pay part of their deals to trade them away. They might actually start Story, once healthy, and we know their luck with injury-prone ex Sox players is grand! They may not mind Yoshida at DH, either. Their current PA leader at DH is Dominic Smith (192) hitting .715. They could use Murphy at DH, but if you think Riley has declined too much to want, Murphy has batted .663 since 2024, so I'm not sure ATL wants him either. Yoshida has hit better than that and costs about the same AAV. (Murphy has 1 more year of control, I believe, so would cost more in total.) We could send them Wong to offset losing Murphy, if they want him, but they already have Baldwin, Bart and others on their roster. I'm not sure I want to bet on a Riley turn around and take on that massive contract, though. I think the Sox would say no. Maybe ATL, too. -
A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I'd never even consider moving Bregman to 2B, let alone 1B. I was for moving Devers to 1B over 3-4 years ago. Even when Casas looked promising, he sucked at 1B defense, and I suggested Casas to DH and Devers to 1B. Thatw as before we even had a decent replacement at 3B. -
A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I'd like a better bat at 3B, but I think we won't be looking to add a 3Bman. We do need 2 major bats- 3 good ones would be fine, too. Assuming we trade Duran and only count Story and Yoshida at best as depth, I see the following positions as the best areas to focus on: ***SS *** Catcher Then.... DH/OF (if 2B/3B instead, the DH might be Romy/Anthony/Duran, if not traded) or 2B/3B with Durbin/RomyMayer filling the other. Getting all 4 would be nice, but we are talking Brez, JH & Co. here. 3 is probably a pipe dream. -
He added more ML ready pitchers than subtracted (26 and 40.) Not many teams handle losing 5 of their top 9-10 starters this well. Why you choose pitching depth as your main point is beyond me. It's the only area we have excelled in. It's not even close. Big bat neglected. Pen neglected. Middle infield strength and depth not really neglected but a major concern. Rotation and rotation depth is the only major plus area beyond 1B. SP'ers on the 40: Underlined = Brez addition Gray, Suarez, Tolle, Bennett, Early, Bello, Sandoval, Rivera, Anderson IL: Crochet, Houck, Crawford, Oviedo, Uberstine SP'ers on other team's 40: Sale, Harrison, Drohan IL: Priester Okay, I wish we had Harrison and Sale, too, but the overall net gain is tremendous, even with Crochet on the IL.
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Red Sox's Craig Breslow Era Is Set to End With A Whimper
moonslav59 replied to Alex Mayes's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Shoulda cloned him years ago. -
A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
The Yanks and Rays play a series, so someone has to lose each day. HOU is at WSH and TOR at SFG, so maybe they hit hard times. BAL (the team we are closest to passing) hosts the Cubs, while the A's and DET play each other-both very close to the Sox in the standings. SEA plays at MIA and TEX hosts the reeling Angels. (Looks like TEX might gain some ground on SEA.) CLE plays at MIN, so the Sox can gain on one or both of them, if we beat the CWS. The weekend series: BOS @ NYM HOU @ TEX KCR @ BAL CLE @ MIA A's @ CWS LAA @ MIN TOR @ SDP SEA @ TBR NYY @ WSH As you can see, many of the teams above us will be playing each other, so if we can keep winning, we will pass some teams. I'm still not confident we can make the playoffs, but things can change in the next week or two and before the trade deadline. Missing Crochet & Anthony hurts, but this team looked pretty good on paper back in March, despite the missing big bat. Maybe that team can show up and play like we expected. -
A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
We also got Ziehl for Hicks (and Sandlin.) Don't forget the great Jose Bello! 🤪 -
That is clearly hyperbole, at best, and a misrepresentation at worst. You do know he added Harrison and Priester, too. They just never or hardly pitched for the big club. The Sale trade was unfortunate, and backfired spectacularly on several levels. Adding injured or injury-prone pitchers is true and very concerning, but Sale was injury-prone, and Brez is blasted for trading away injury pitchers and for signing them. Hmmm.... Okay, he traded away Sale- big whiff. He traded for and away Harrison, Priester and Drohan. None have had more than 24 GS'd for the other team, yet. Let's count them as 4 decent pitchers dealt away from our depth. Brez also traded Fitts, who we never hear about as trading away depth. Now, let's look at the additions, not counting the Harrison & Priester adds. Crochet: could cancel out the Sale loss. Giolito: had 26 GS in 2025, which is more than Priester (24) and Harrison (16) PLUS Drohan (3) (Buehler was healthy when we signed him and during the 2025 season: he just sucked. Sandoval has been a big bust at $18M/2.) Gray (16 & counting) winning trade Suarez (17 & counting) Best pitching signing since _____? Tolle (16 & counting) was drafted by Brez Bennett (7 & counting) winning trade. Oviedo (0) is on IL Newcomb (5) was a bust as a SP'er, and Brez should have kept him as a RP'er. He's done very well since that tarde. (DMay & Paxton were minor additions and busts) Minor league depth added- some far away from MLB ready Trade: Holobetz, Ziehl, Jose Bello & others Draft: Eyanson, Witherspoon, Futrell, Phillips, Finley, Brown, B Morgan, Mayers, B Ortiz, Patton & others MiLFA or IFA: Delzine, Rivera, Montero & others Rule 5 returnees: Paez & Bastardo Ranked Pitching prospects traded away: 4 Perales (Bennett) 8 Clarke (Gray) 10 Fajardo w Aita (Contreras) 11 Sandlin (Ziehl) 12 Dobbins (Contreras) 18 Drohan w Harrison (Durbin, Monasterio, Seigler and Comp B pick) Do you see a net loss in rotation strength and depth, here?
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Red Sox's Craig Breslow Era Is Set to End With A Whimper
moonslav59 replied to Alex Mayes's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Who is saying NO? Schwarber was my first choice. My question was "MUCH better off." -
Red Sox's Craig Breslow Era Is Set to End With A Whimper
moonslav59 replied to Alex Mayes's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Duran's offense goes beyond just his bat. While your point about other players having better BAs and OPS, ponder this... No Sox player with a higher OPS came within 200 PAs of Duran's 696. Only Bregman (495) and Abreu (417) came within 350 PAs. Duran more than doubled the PAs by Romy (341), Devers (334) and Anthony (303) who all had better OPS. XBHs: 70 Duran (695 PAs) 67 Bregman PLUS Refsnyder (704 PAs) top 2 OPS guys 60 Devers PLUS Anthony (637 PAs) #3 & #5 OPS guys 54 Story (#9) in 654 PAs 43 Romy (#4 OPS) PLUS N Lowe (#6) in 460 PAs 39 Abreu (#7) in 417 PAs (projects to less than Duran in 695 PAs) He was also second in RBI while leading off in 70% of his starts. Before anyone should poo-poo this RBI number, consider this: OBP by our 7-8-9 slots: 7) .308 8) .271 9) .306 Duran was clearly a top 3 offensive player on the 2025 team. Counting players with 300-350 PAs as better has some merit, but Devers should not count. The other two: Romy & Roman have been on the IL, so counting them is questionable. Bregman was 4th in PAs and is gone. Story second and on the IL, plus Duran out OPS'd Story. One could argue returning players ranked as such on offense: T1 Abreu, Duran & Anthony T4 Story & Romy T6 Rafaela & Narvaez -
Red Sox's Craig Breslow Era Is Set to End With A Whimper
moonslav59 replied to Alex Mayes's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I think the hope was we'd use someone from our 10-11 man deep rotation to eat major pen innings. We may see Sandoval do just that within a week. -
Red Sox's Craig Breslow Era Is Set to End With A Whimper
moonslav59 replied to Alex Mayes's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I've been suggesting Duran trades for years, but the argument that trading away a top 3 offensive weapon, when offense was and still is our biggest weakness made some sense, last winter. I expected he and Anthony would have been above average DHs and maybe as good or better than Alonso at DH. Who we could have gotten in a Duran trade, would have, in theory, tipped the balance towards Alonso being a good add, but then subtracting Suarez makes it a close call. Trading Duran might also have saved us $8M, although that depends on who we got back. Taking his $8M and IKF's $6M plus Suarez's money, maybe Alonso plus ____ might have worked better. Not knowing the other what ifs makes this speculation. If it was Contreras vs Alonso, I'm glad we have Willson not Pete. The best near miss was Bregman. I was against paying even what we ended up offering, so I'm glad we did not sign him. It doesn't mean it's good news that Brez botches signings he wants, but on this one, the end result worked out, and he's been bashed for hindsight judging, so the same should be applied here. He did well not signing Breggie. Suarez is an All Star and Contreras & Gray almost made it. Let's not forget the Chapman signing and extension. -
Red Sox's Craig Breslow Era Is Set to End With A Whimper
moonslav59 replied to Alex Mayes's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I'd still have kicked the tires on hiring him.

