moonslav59

So, maybe buy & sell?

Why not say 10-2 in their last 12?

Can I ask those who have already packed in the season, where we'd need to be by the deadline (AUG 3) to change your mind on selling? (Not saying be buyers, but just not sell.) 21 games to the deadline.

What ever happened to "the playoffs are a crapshoot?" I'm not even in that camp, but so many teams looked like non contenders in early to mid July, only to make very strong pushes through the playoffs. We've also seen teams that look like clear top contenders on July 9th, only to collapse and not even make the playoffs- extended format or not. Not that the Sox went deep into the playoffs, last year, but they were 4th in the ALE, last July 9th. They were 43-45 on July 2nd and nearly bottom tier (9th out of 15 AL teams in winning%)

Can they win, if they start hitting HRs and play 10th to 15th offense the rest of the way? How about as well as the last month? June 10th> 16th in runs (2 behind 14th) 18th in HRs (3 behind a tie for 12th) Personally, I think we need to improve on even our last month's offense to have a chance at making AND advancing in the playoffs, but this offense looks a lot better than 28th to 30th. Our everyday player fWAR, which includes defense ranks T11th at 4.1. (3rd in D and 16th in batting/running) We still need to keep improving, but to think we can't is being a bit pessimistic, IMO. Then, when you look at the teams we need to beat, only the Rays look real tough, and don't be surprised if they have a long bad stretch in them. The Yanks have the second best record, but look horrible, recently. Trades will be made to improve some of these teams, and maybe we will be buyers and improve. Maybe Anthony, Crochet and others return and do well- maybe not. Maybe other teams have returning players. I'm still leaning "sell mode," but that pendulum is swinging towards buy pretty forcefully, right now.

Yes, look at the entire body of work, including guys like O'Neill who have come and gone- guys like Buehler, too, of course. Look at the roster and farm he inherited vs the one now. Look at the roster, years of control and budget cost projections of each. Tell me we have not gotten significantly better. End of 2023: https://soxprospects.com/2023SE.htm Highlights: SP: Sale, Bello, Pivetta FA), Houck, Crawford RP: Jansen, Martin, Wink, Whitlock, Bernardino, Schreiber, Murphy C: McGuire & Wong 1B Turner (FA) Dalbec 2B E Valdez & P Reyes 3B Devers SS Story LF Verdugo CF Rafaela RF Abreu DH Duvall (FA)Yoshida & Refsnyder Farm (sp,com rankings) Antony, Mayer, Teel, Bleis, Yorke, Perales, Wikelman, Cespedes, Zanetello

All but two AL teams are within 5 games. All but 4 are within 4 GB (4 teams ate 2-3 GB in the loss column to the last 2 WC teams.) In the NL, all but 4 teams are within 5.5 GB, but AZ is 7 GB in the loss column. Count them out, and there are 4 teams 4.5 or better behind (all within 4 GB in losses.) That's 9 teams that are more than 4 GB in losses. That does not mean 21 teams will be actively looking to overpay for what they need. By the end of the month, a few may drop out, but then again AZ or DET could join the group. Guys like Duran are the type several teams may look to give 8-10 BTV for his 5.6, maybe more if they think he's "fixable." I'm not talking Paredes (20 BTV) for Duran, anymore.

Some of these teams have not and likely will not come THIS close to the playoffs for several more year. Hell, some teams were thought to be 3-4 years away fro having any shot, this past March. Some may not want to spend a big chunk of change, so maybe Gray & Chapman are not going to be pursued, but Duran will be owed between $2-3M, and he won't cost a ton- just more than his worth.

I'm always higher on the farther away prospects than most. The dropped Soto 2 slots plus the two bt attrition. Primera does have 150+ sample size, which is small, but not real small. His 30 PAs at SAK have not started well. They also jumped Delzine from 23 to 10, although 3 prospects graduated above him. The youngest prospects ranking changes: 36>7 Primera (19 y/o) 23>10 Delzine (18) 9>11 Soto (18) 18>15 Rivas (18) 17>28 Ramos (18) 29>26 Silverio (17) __________________ 8>5 Gonzales (19) 15>6 Azocar (19) ( I did not list the many 20 y/o's)

MLB ERA SP Leaders (47+ IP) 1.65 Misiorowski 1.71 Bryce Miller 1.79 Ohtani 2.01 Schlitter 2.25 ERod 2.27 Sale 2.28 Wheeler 2.49 Yamamoto 2.54 Burns 2.56 Cease 2.58 Meyer 2.61 Gray 2.61 N Martinez 2.62 Sanchez 2.64 Bennett 2.64 Mize 2.69 Wrobleski 2.77 Griffin 2.78 Rasmussen 2.80 Messick 2.83 McClanahan 2.85 Joe Ryan 2.88 Urena 2.97 Drohan 3.01 McGeevy 3.01 Harrison 3.06 Skubal 3.07 Soroka 3.10 Ginn 3.14 Tolle 3.15 Montero 3.15 Suarez We may have 4 ex Spx pitchers in the top 30, but we also have 4 active ones.

I think to a large extent Brez will take the best player available- pitcher or everyday player, but the question might be does he place higher value on pitchers? We've graduated 4 pitchers, this year, and the next guy is Bennett, but all is not doom & gloom for our everyday player pipeline outlook. Here are the ETAs of our top 16 prospects: Everyday: Early/Mid2027: #1 Arias Late 2027 or 2028: #5 Gonzales #8 Godbout #14 Cespedes, #16 Romero ______________ Pitchers Early/Mid 2027: #2 Eyanson Late 2027 or 2028: #3 Witherspoon #12 Phillips, #13 Holobetz

I think he would have been fine at 1B. He has decent reflexes, and his arm was a major issue at 3B. I'm glad we traded him without paying a big chunk of his deal. We got Harrison who turned into Durbin. That may not be great, but it's better than Wong for Betts.

6 game sample size in July. The H-A splits are weird with the shape of the ball park.

Someone claimed the Breggie signing was done to begin the Devers offloading. (LOL)

If anyone has not seen Jacob's Ladder, I highly recommend it and won't spoil the ending.

The other factor might have been: Yoshida not Duran but Paredes not Mayer/Story/Monasterio/Cheng

Assuming no second trade or no injury to Anthony and no Eaton/Ward, instead.

What do these ex Sox players have in common? .422 Refsnyder .587 Blaze Jordan .651 DHam ,676 Meidroth ('25 to '26) 0-0 Quinn Priester 0-0 Luis Perales 4.50 Sandlin 6.28 S Matz

They and a couple more teams would, a couple more might, but the return will be lessened by the money.

The AL WC seems much more in reach, now. 10-2 can do that. Updated standings: 47-46 CLE (WC2) 46-46 TEX (WC3) -0.5 MIN 46-47 (-1 loss column) -1.5 HOU 46-49 (-3 loss column) -2.5 TOR 44-49 (-3 loss column) -3.0 BOS 42-48 (-2 loss column) -4.0 DET 42-50 (-4 loss column) -4.5 BAL 42-51 (-5) -5.0 A's 41-51 (-5) -

TEX lost, too. CLE lost/MIN won.

Yanks lost. SEA lost. BAL lost. HOU lost. CLE or MIN has to lose (tied 5-5, now.)

Bennett is close to leading the rotation in ERA!

Too bad Brez can't find gems like Bennett... errr.... ahh.... ummm.....

We are still 28th in runs scored and are... 10 runs from 25th 20 runs from 20th 40 runs from 17th 50 runs from 15th 60 runs from 12th 70 runs from T9th (NYY) ______________ We are 23rd in OPS. .010 from 19th .020 from 16th .030 from 12th .040 from T6th ________________ We are 4th in fewest runs allowed (pitching & defense) and 6th in ERs allowed. 5th in ERA- and 5th xFIP 6th in FIP 7th in ERA and WHIP