moonslav59

OPS+ 88 McGuire 86 Wong It's about even on O, but certainly both are trending in opposite directions- duly noted.

I did not know this when I first made my point, but if he does well, we (and the Padres) would want that deal, if not they may end up with the player option taken, and those numbers change. I still like the Wacha gamble more than the Kluber one, and this is not in hindsight.

No doubt, and it's totally understandable. I'm not arguing otherwise. Maybe even Kluber would like to try Wong a few more times. (BTW, he has improved a lot on his ERA with McGuire, after that rocky start to the season.) If Crawford or Wink were asked to start, who would they choose?

Crawford has as many GS'd as Paxton and did better with McGuire, so technically, this is not true. The fact that 4 of 8 SP'ers have only been caught by one catcher - Whitlock, Houck, paxton and Crawford (both starts with Wong with an 8.00 ERA, BTW,) and Kluber is 8 to 1 makes your statement very deceiving. The 5 pitchers with significant time with both catchers are divided 3 to 2 in Wong's favor, but you want to focus on only SP'er. I think, if you put Whitlock, Houck and paxton in Wong's corner, then you should count Crawford in McGuire's. (I'd put Wink, too, but he has not started.)

Probably not good enough for top 10, but proving it at the MLB level should give a little boost.

That is so deceiving. Houck- ONLY Wong Whitlock- ONLY Wong Paxton- ONLY Wong That's half the sample size off the bat. Kluber has 1 start with McGuire, so how can he count? 5 IP w Wong 1.80 37 IP w McGuire 6.87 Sorry, but I can't see how this example should mean much at all. That leaves 3 others, and this is what all the debate is really about, IMO. Sale- 6 GS w Wong and 3 GS with McGuire- YES a massive disparity (11.25 to 3.05, but one could argue McGuire only caught Sale as he was trying to regain what he had lost. Yes, one can argue Wong helped him find it more quickly, but do we know that?) Pivetta has sucked with both catchers: 6 GS w McGuire 6.75 4 GS w Wong 5.17 Yes, better with Wong, but not by a whole lot and just 15.2 IP with Wong is one pitch from being equal or worse than McGuire.) Bello- just 6 GS 4 w Wong 3.05 2 w Wong 8.22 A massive disparity but less than 8 IP with McGuire. The fact that all 3 have done better with Wong does have significance. I'm not denying it, but when you say all starters, it really is about 3 of the 7. I'd like to add one more thing: Crawford has as many GS'd as Paxton (2) and both Crawford and Winckowski have more IP than Bello, Whitlock and Paxton, but you only highlight the starters. I think they should be in the discussion, and they would make the score 3 for McGuire and 2 for Wong. (Crawford + Wink have more IP: 56 than Whitlock + Bello + Paxton: 55.1) Wink 18 IP w Wong 2.50 11 IP w McGuire 1.59 Close but so is Pivetta Craw 13 IP w Wong 6.08 14 IP w McGuire 1.26 Massive differential but small samples

The conversation drifted towards signing Nat or wacha, instead of Kluber, so I just highlighted what the differences would have been. Kluber for one year at $10, and then minus that $10M/1 from Nate and wacha leaves.... $24M x for Nate (2024) $34M/2 - $10M/1. $16M x 3 for Wacha (2024-2026) $26M/4 - $10M/1 Yes, both have risks, but I do not think $5.3M x 3 for Wacha over the next 3 years is all that catastrophic, and he does have a chance at being decent.

I think we have to beat out TOR, and it will come down to BAL or TEX. We need to pass one more team, and it is doubtful it will be TBR or HOU and we can't beat out the ALC winner. NYY might be the third easiest team to pass. (Easiest not easy.)

I don't doubt the reasoning, but certainly catching almost all of Kluber and none of Paxton Houck and Whitlock and little from sale should create a massive adjustment situation or context inclusion into the analysis, right? Then, most of Sale's IP have been with Wong, and both of Paxton's starts have been with Wong. (maybe they'd all have worse numbers had it been McGuire, but it's impossible to know.) I'm not arguing McGuire is better- just that the overall CERA numbers are almost always deceiving, and are now. Why not ask why Whitlock and Houck are doing way worse than 2022, when only one catcher has caught them in 2023? I'm not asking this because I think the answer matters, but if you ask about McGuire vs Wong, then you should also ask this to yourself. A lot of our pitchers are doing much worse than last year or previous/recent years. Why? It does not seem to matter who has been catching them. Almost all are doing worse. Only Wink and Crawford are showing massive gains, and weirdly, both have done better with McGuire. Why? You don't seem to acknowledge these aspects of the situation that favor McGuire.

The minor league depth at SP'er evaporated with mata, walter and Murphy all doing poorly out of the gate. The strategy with Kluber has been based on there not being many other choices, until now, and this... ERA Last 4 Weeks 7.54 Pivetta (23 IP) 5.35 Houck (28 IP) 4.56 Kluber (24 IP) 2.57 Bello (21 IP) 2.45 Paxton (11 IP) 2.30 Sale (27 IP) Was there a better strategy, until now?

On our catchers and how well pitchers do with them. 1. This pitching staff has so many new to the team pitchers, that no Sox catcher had any history with them, before this year. 2. McGuire joined the team in August and Wong did not see much action in the majors prior to this year, soe evn the returning pitchers had very little history with these two catchers. (Some may have seen Wong in the minors, here and there.) 3. McGuire has been getting criticism for how badly many pitchers are doing with him, and perhaps some or all of it is well-founded, but some aspects of the balance of who catches who comes into play. McGuire has not caught Houck or Whitlock, at all, and they were two of our best ERA pitchers over the last two years. I don't see people comparing their 2021-2022 numbers vs their 2023 numbers with Wong. Wong has hardly caught Kluber, at all. Is that why Kluber has sucked, or has not catching Kluber helped pad his CERA numbers? 4. There is likely a different learning curve with each pitcher and catcher. Maybe most pitchers have already decided who they want as their binky, and that may never change. My guess is most prefer Wong, and who can blame them? When comparing how each pitcher does with Wong vs McGuire, Wong has a big advantage, but most sample sizes are small and or highly unbalanced. I've shown those numbers before, but I want to show something else, now: 2022 vs 2023: 2022>2023 (Listed in order of most IP in 2022) Sox>Sox 4.56 > 6.17 Pivetta 6GS w Wong 5.17 (27 IP)/4 GS (16 IP) w McGuire 6.75 3.45 > 6.19 Whitlock All IP w Wong 5.47 > 3.58 Crawford 14 IP w Wong 6.08/ 13 IP w McGuire 1.26 5.89 > 2.15 Winkowski 18 IP w Wong 2.50/ 11 IP w McGuire 1.59 2.22 > 2.12 Schreiber 9IP w Wong 1.93/ 8 IP w McGuire 2.35 5.78 > 7.29 Brasier 3.15 > 4.99 Houck All IP w Wong 4.71 > 4.45 Bello 6.35 > 7.30 Ort (Sale's 2022 sample size was too small to count.) (Paxton did not pitch in 2022.) Other > Sox 4.34 > 6.26 Kluber 8 GS McGuire (37 IP)/ 1 (5 IP) Wong (Unbalanced) 3.55 > 5.85 Bleier 3.38 > 3.95 Jansen 3.05 > 1.38 Martin 3.86 > 3.65 Bernardino

It's not just weaker teams, it's almost all non ALE teams with the Sox, at least when looking at what happened in 2022. There is nothing that says history will repeat itself, but the Sox struggled with their own division, last year but did very well vs non ALE teams. Playing more non ALE teams, could, in theory, help the Sox more than other ALE teams. 2022 Records: vs ALE 47-29 NYY 43-33 TOR 40-36 TBR 34-42 BAL 26-50 BOS vs Non ALE Teams 52-34 BOS 52-34 NYY 49-37 TOR 49-37 BAL 46-40 TBR I'm not sure, if there has ever been such a wide discrepancy like this in MLB history.

He did sign it. The $5.3M x 3 is what the cost was above the Kluber $10M/1 deal. That was my point about the long term risk of his deal. It was only $16M more but 3 more years than Kluber, which amounts to the difference of $5.3M x 3. Also, to me $26M/4 looked better than nate's $34M/2 deal.

Something about the Heat. It's not the first time they have beaten much higher seeds. Jimmy Butler is ruining my position about the non-existence of "clutch players."

Sorry for implying you were down on McGuire. It's funny how early in Wong's minor league career, there was talk he might not stick as a catcher, due to his defense, and McGuire was hyped as a very good defensive catcher.

LeBron still has the fire, but he certainly doesn't need to keep playing for the money. I think he will only comeback, if he thinks the team can win. Maybe, if the lakers can find a way to add another really good player, that would tip the balance. The Nuggets sure look like a championship team. I doubt Jimmy Butler's magic show can top them, but it should be a fun series. And, yes, I'm writing off the Celtics. Is Tatum the next James Harden?

Well said. Houck has stayed as a starter more out of need and the abundance of failures by his competitors, but he took a nice step forward, last night, on earning a slot, on his own. I feel like the slots are being filled- one by one, and it's too bad it has taken nearly a third of the season to fill 4 of the 5 slots, but things are looking up. First, Sale nailed down a slot. Technically, he owns the one slot, but I'm not sure I'd call him an ace, at this point. Paxton seems to have nailed down the 2/3 slot, but it's only been 2 starts. One blow out and this board will be calling for his DFA. Bello seems to have found a groove, espite still walking too many batters to solidify a 2 or 3 slot. Houck is looking like he won the 4 slot, but he still needs to show he can get into the 3rd time through the line-up, a few more times, to claim that slot for the rest of the season. Whitlock has the inside edge on the 5 slot, but he has a lot to prove. It's hard to know how much that injury has affected him, or if he is over it, but my hope is, he can return to near the form he showed in 2021 and 2022. If he does, we have our 5th starter. Kluber will likely be given a shot at the pen, before thoughts of DFA'ing are considered. Pivetta looks like a long man , the rest of the way, and might be the first guy chosen, if a spot start is needed. Crawford and Wink should remain as long men. Mata and Walter have lost their chance for 2023, IMO. Perhaps Drohan could make an appearance, late in the year, if he shows he can handle the higher levels of the minors. A trade could occur to bring us a SP'er.

I doubt he'd make their top 10, anyway.

Also, blocking bad pitches (and minimizing WPs) and building up the confidence & comfort level of the pitcher.

Tough loss. We had some chances. Nice to see Houck break some norms and work towards solidifying the 4 slot. Houck got to 4.99. Finally, a SP'er with 3+ GS'd with an ERA under 5.00. (Sale is at 5.01.)

Me, too. McGuire was known for good D, before. I think he's either going through a tough time, a learning curve or whatever. I'm far from giving up on him, but with Wong doing so well, I'm not seeing the rush to give McGuire a long look, right now.

Almost half the games McGuire has started have been with Kluber on the mound.

Crawford is the only guy with a lot of innings, I know- not a starter- who does better with McGuire, but it's still early. What's not to like about Wong. The kid has done very well. It's okay to like Wong a lot and still think McGuire is fine or will get better.

Meeting at the mound: Cora: “Reese, what kind of stuff does Houck have tonight?” McGuire: “How would I know, I haven’t caught him yet.” or Meeting at the mound: Cora: “Reese, what kind of stuff does Whitlock have tonight?” McGuire: “How would I know, I haven’t caught him yet.” ...Oh wait... that's true!

Refsnyder is pure platoon. Tapia bats lefty, but I'd have started Turner, too. Someone pointed out that he had previous success vs Barria.