moonslav59

It really gets you wondering about those ingrained suppositions.

Indeed, and to other ALE teams, too.

I know we can pass BAL & TOR.

We all are concerned about Kluber, Chang, Arroyo and Casas. Some are concerned about more than those 4 slots, but imagine being a fan of other ALE teams. Sure, we'd be much happier with their records, but we'd have these concerns and questions with them, too: BAL .602 OPS from their #4 PA guy (Santender) .665 & .668 from their #6 (Henderson) & #7 (Frazier) .462 (Vavra), .544 (McKenna) and .556 (McCann) #10-#12's Rotation: Irvin 10.66, GRod 6.91 and Kremer 6.16 That's 3 out of 5 SP'ers doing as badly as ours. TOR .602 Springer #3 in PAs .642 Varsho #5 .566 Belt #9, .466 Jansen #10, .394 Biggio #11/.384 Espinal #12 (These last 2 combine for 78 PAs at 2B which would be #5 in PAs) Rotation: Berrios 6.23 and Bassitt 5.40 Pen: Y Garcia leads the pen in IP and has a 7.20 ERA NYY 10 of their 15 batters have an OPS at .711 or worse. The guy at .711 is Franchy! 8 of their top 14 batter by PAs (17+) are at ,672 or worse. 6 of those 14 are at .591 or worse. One of their 4-5 good hitters is on the IL (Stanton.) 3 of their best 5 hitters are 33 or older (Stanton, LeMahieu & Rizzo.) 1 of their top 5 hitters has a .730 OPS from 2020-2022 (Torres.) Positional OPS: .582 C .608 3B .613 LF .631 RF .659 SS The bottom of their order starts at the #5 slot: .639 #5 .548 #6 .411 #7 .770 #8 .521 #9 Rotation: Schmidt 8.79, Brito 5.40, German 4.50 Pen: Holmes is not the 2022 Holmes (4.15 ERA/1.385 WHIP) but the rest has been solid.

Whitlock missed some time, last year and needed more rehab, before joining the rotation. He's had some bumps and blips, but he looks to have his stuff back, Some of those hits by the Brewers, yesterday were off some nasty pitches, where the batter nearly threw his bat at the pitch and got a hit. I'm not worried about Whitlock as a pitcher- just his health and season IP limit. Sale missed a lot of time. I did not expect him to come back to greatness, day one. I'm seeing good signs from him, of late. Houck is doing better than I expected as a starter. I thought he'd be a great replacement for Whitlock in the pen. (Thanks to Wink, we haven't needed Houck in that role.) Pivetta seems to be as steady as ever. Bello, Kluber and Paxton remain the big question marks, but if those other 4 come through, we may be able to get by with just one of these guys giving us a 4.80 ERA. I still feel that one can give us 4.25, but I'm not so sure, anymore. Having Jansen has cooled a lot of the hotheads from yesteryear.

That might be part of it. Maybe waiting for Story, Duvall and Martin to return offers way more hope than last year's Sale, Paxton and Taylor did. Maybe realizing the opponents we broke even with were really not the push-overs many felt they were, when we saw the schedule over the winter. Here are the records of the teams we have faced, minus our games with them: (Note: we only have a losing record vs 2 of the 7 teams we have played) 14-3 TBR (4-0 v BOS) 12-7 PIT (3-0 v BOS) 14-5 MIL (1-1 v BOS) 12-5 BAL (1-2 v BOS) 10-8 MN (1-2 v BOS) 9-8 LAA (1-3 v BOS) 7-9 DET (0-3 v BOS) Flip one DET loss to a win, and every team we have faced would be at .500 or better in all their non-Sox games. We've been a pretty scrappy team that has fought from behind to win a few games, and I think that helps with the gut feelings many fans have about their team's chances. We have some major weaknesses, but so do other teams ahead of us. Rotation: I'm sticking with my belief we can and will be near the middle of the pack by season's end- maybe even top 15. Middle IF: Our only real hope is Story and/or Mondesi. If Duvall comes back, it allows Kike to play SS or 2B, but I'm not so sure that is a good thing. 1B: This position has to get better, and there are some shifts we can make, if Casas does not fulfill his promise, this year: Turner to 1B and Yoshida to DH, when Duvall returns, of find some platoon like EValdez/Dalbec or Duran/Refsnyder. The trade market may help in July, and we so appear to have some lux tax room to add salary, but I'm not sure we can wait that long, and we may be toast by then. That being said, I'm still optimistic about this season.

Speaking of SBs, our top 3 leaders were all acquired via trade: SB/CS 11/3 Hamilton 8/0 C Rosier 8/2 M Ferguson 8/0 G Allen 5/0 Bleis & McDonough 5/1 Chacon & Liendo 5/2 Rafaela 4/0 Sogard & Meredith

WOO postponed POR won 3-2 Denlinger got the win in relief: 2IP, 1H, 0ER, 0BB, 2K 2-4 Yorke w 2B 2-4 Rafaela w 2B GRE won 13-5 4-5 Jordan w HR & 2B, 4 rbi 3-5 Hickey w 2B 2-5 Ferguson w two 2B, B, 3rbi 2-4 Miller and Lopez 1-4 Meidroth w 2 BB 1-4 Mayer w BB SAL lost 8-5 2-3 Anthony w 2 BB 1-3 Chacon w 3B, BB 1-3 Rosario w 2B, BB 1-5 Bleis (.719 OPS)

It would be nice to win another series, especially against a good team, but we really need a streak. As always, though, one game at a time. Go Sox!

I'm way more worried about who is playing SS, 1B and 2B. Who is our #1 and #2 SP'ers? We have 8 #3s to #5s.

CERA, this game: 7.50 Wong 0.00 McGuire (LOL)

I get that, but this sample size is not 21 games. We are talking about 2 games- one with Sale and one with Kluber that are supposed to change our opinions. I know these are not final judgments by anyone. McGuire has better OPS Against numbers with 6 out of 11 pitchers, but the two lopsided sample sizes of Sale (64 to 25 PAs) and Kluber (64 to 19) flip the score to Wong 7 to 6. Even 7-6 is not very convincing. Just my opinion. IMO, and catcher who gets to catch Whitlock and Houck, exclusively should have a better overall CERA.

I stand corrected. (Actually, I'm sitting down.)

Good points. The lux tax induced drop was on DD, though. (Also, Beni, Kopech, Beeks & Espi were Ben draftees or IFA signees.) One can also argue the Bloom crop was hampered by COVID- the short 2020 draft and the lost year of player development.

I think Espinoza was ranked more highly than Kopech ever was.

Best Draft Picks Since 2014-2019 (6 years): Beni 2015 Houck 2017 Kopech 2014 Beeks 2014 Crawford 2017 Casas 2018 Dalbec 2016 Duran 2018 Walter 2019 IFA Moncada 2015 Bello 2017 Rafaela 2017 Mata 2016 Perales 2019 Wikelman 2018 Paulino 2018 Chacon 2019 Castillo 2015 Espinoza 2015 2020-2022: Mayer 2021 Yorke 2020 Romero 2022 Drohan 2020 Anthony 2022 Meidroth 2022 Jordan 2020 Hickey 2021 E R-C 2021 Kavadas 2021 Coffey 2022 IFA Bleis 2021 Alcantara 2022 Rule 5 Whitlock 2021 Trade Wong, Valdez, Abreu, Hamilton, Koss

Going against the lefty, old friend, Wade Miley... 1. L Verdugo RF 2. R Turner 1B 3. R Refsnyder LF 4. L Devers 3B 5. R Kike CF 6. L Yoshida DH 7. R Arroyo 2B 8. R Wong C 9. R Chang SS I'd have probably gone... 1. R Kike 2. L Verdugo (hot hitter 2nd) 3. R Turner 4. L Devers 5. R Ref The rest- the same.

You act like "two separate seasons" is 300+ games. Your unbiased observation is cherry-picked to find the two widest disparity pitchers, each with just a one game sample size with one catcher. I'm really quite surprised you are putting so much faith and energy into such a tiny sample size. Honestly, it really is not much different from me using this to counter you: OPS Against: Whitlock: .000 w McGuire .819 w Wong Houck .000 w McGuire .705 w Wong My choice of cherry-picked sample sizes involves just one less game with one pitcher (zero instead of one.) How about looking at the pitchers both have caught more than 13 PAs with each catcher? First, let me point out that using 13 or more PAs as the minimum sample size goes against every bone in my body as being anywhere near a significant sample size, but I will do so to show the disparity is not as great as you think it is. No cherry-picking. These are all the sample sizes where both pitchers have 13 or more PAs with each catcher. Wink .584 w Wong (45 PAs) .377 w McGuire (19) Pivetta .719 w Wong (45) .852 w McGuire (43) Crawford .891 w Wong (45) .310 w McGuire (29) Brasier .764 w Wong (25) .880 w McGuire (30) Schreiber .681 w Wong (23) .575 w McGuire (16) Bleier .686 w Wong (18) .866 w McGuire (16) Ort .752 w Wong (37) .871 w McGuire (13) Jansen .641 w Wong (13) .220 w McGuire (14) Martin .918 w Wong (18) .482 w McGuire (11) It's 6 to 5 in McGuire's favor before the lopsided ones are counted: And your two unbalanced samples... Sale .430 w Wong (25) 1.061 w McGuire (64) Kluber .544 w Wong (19) 1.045 w McGuire (64) Wong is better with 7. McGuire is better with 6. Wong has not caught Bello. McGuire has not caught Houck or Whitlock. (That's a huge part of the 3 run differential.) This is why looking at overall CERA numbers are misleading and near insignificant, and that's before talking sample size values.

Do they? Should they? Even if they do, two in eight years is worse than 3 in Bloom's 4 years.

They were there earlier, too. People just gravitate towards gloom & doom.

He mentioned Mayer. I added Whitlock and Bleis. I do think he has a point. 4 years and only 3 blue chippers is not great. (It's not bad, either.) How many blue chippers did we acquire after Devers, who we signed in 2013 and before Whitlock, Mayer and Bleis? That was about an 8 year void.

...and every single sample size is tiny and many are lopsided and even all vs none with some pitchers. Yes, there is some significance to the fact that a wide differential skewing towards one catch vs the other, even among sample sizes, but it's just not true. When you look pitcher by pitcher, the differential is not significant. When you compare each pitcher that have more than tiny sample sizes with each catcher, separately- one by one, Wong barely has an edge at all.

So all the talk about us not being able to beat good teams or good pitchers is on hold for a while. 3-0 v DET (DEt is 7-8 vs rest of league) 1-0 v MIL (14-5 v rest) 3-1 v LAA (9-7 v rest) 2-1 v MN (10-7 v rest) 2-1 v BAL (11-5 v rest) 0-3 v PIT (11-7 vs rest) 0-4 v TBR (13-3 vs rest of league)

I've looked at the average offense by catchers for many years. It certainly is a lower average than any other position and way lower than some. That being said, the line between starting catcher and back-up is often blurry for many teams. To get a sample size of 60 catcher seasons over the last 2 years (30 teams x 2 seasons= 60 top samples) you have to lower the PAs to 300- by far the lowest of any position. Here is what I found: The top 30 samples range from a .710 OPS to .939 (Grandal '21). The 2022 Vazquez ranked 29th out of 60. The 2021 Vaz ranked 41st at .659. Combine 2021 and 2022 and raise the min PAs to 577 and you get a sample size of 30 catchers (1 per team.) Vaz places 17th out of 30 at .685. He's been average- not really above average. It is telling to see the bottom quartile cut off is .643. Ten catchers were at .600 or lower. On the larger scale, there are only 63 catchers with 1000+ PAs since 2014. Vaz is ranked 37th at .695. #30 is .707. #15 is .745.

On Vaz's offense: OPS+ 64 '14-'16 (385 PAs) 71 '17-'18 (614 PAs) 105 '19-'20 (710) 87 '21-'22 (924- some with HOU) In fairness, an OPS+ of about 90 is probably good for a catcher. Vaz has been a good MLB hitter among catchers, and he had some big hits along the way, but an 86 OPS+ over his career is not really all that good.