moonslav59

We were assuming everyone is still doing well. They might demote Casas to avoid trading Arroyo. Duvall replaces Tapia. Story replaces Reyes or Arroyo. (Arroyo replaces Reyes or is traded.) Why demote Casas?

I'm not. He'd basically cost $16M more than Kluber for those 3 "extra years." That's $5.3M x 3. The risk on Nat is about as big and costs $8M more than Wacha- overall.

Whitlock is starting Saturday. He's in. Bloom has said he will go with 6 for one time through and take a look. If Houck can't get past 9 batters, and Kluber looks good (it is possible), maybe Houck goes to the pen. He would join Pivetta, Wink and Crawford as long men, which would allow quicker hooks on Kluber, Whitlock and anyone else who sucks out of the gate. I'm not saying I think hat will happen, but Cora is making the call. (Maybe he already knows Kluber will be demoted from the rotation.) I think we'd try Kluber in the pen before we DFA him.

All I'm saying is he did not suck as a 5th starter in 2022. This is 2023, and he has sucked. So has Kluber, Whitlock and to a slightly lesser extend, Houck.

Why assume Wacha will suck years 2, 3 and 4?

Well, if everything is going well, Duvall is hitting righties like he did in 2021 and is a FT'er.

I just hope that if he fails as a SP'er, he can go back to his pen role and be as big a success as he was before.

It will be a while before Duvall is back, and a lot can change, especially with Casas, Duran and others. I'm not sure Duvall deserves to be platooned. Career .758 v R .781 v L His big 2021 season: A MEGA Reverse split... .827 v R (413 PA) .610 v L ((142 PA) Big differential in 2022- the other way: .620 v R (237) .844 v L (78) 2021-2023 (out of 200+ batters with 600+ PAs v R) 76th Duvall at .784 (out of 224 batters with 220+ PAs v L) 145th Duvall at .730

The thing is, Wacha at $26M/3 ($8.7M x 3) is probably better than Kluber at $10M x 1. Wacha at $13M x 2 might be better. He got $26M/4. Sure, it's a risk, but it's spread out over 4 years.

How "good" is the average 5th starter in MLB? If you look at 2022, the first thing you notice is that you have to lower the qualifying IP to 70 to reach 150 SP'er (30 teams x 5 SP'er.) That alone sets Pivetta apart from almost all other 5th SP'er- IP, durability and taking the ball every 5th day. You can probably find some numbers that show he was a bad 5th starter, but here are some I found: If #1s are 1-30, #2s 31-60, #3's 61-90... fWAR ranking in top 150 SP'er of 2022: 77. R HIll 1.8 83. Wacha 1.5 86. Pivetta 1.5 (lower #3 tier 107. Eovaldi 1.0 xFIP 35. Nate 3.46 82. Wacha 3.99 93. RHill 4.12 103. Pivetta 4.26 (mid 4th starter tier) ERA- 42. Wacha 81 72. Nate 94 90. RHill 104 107. Pivetta 111 (mid 4th SP'er tier) IP 28. Pivetta 179.2 89. Wacha 127.1 95. RHill 124.1 110. Nate 109.1 K-BB% 91st at 13.2% (nearly in 3rd starter tier) BAbip 47th at .300 (suggesting bad luc/poor D) SIERA 97th at 4.21 (top tier 4th starter)

Nobody is arguing otherwise. BTW.... GS/QS 8/1 Houck 8/1 Pivetta 6/1 Bello 3/0 Whitlock 2/0 Craw They've all been s***, other than Sale, Paxton and Bello. 11/6 Sale & Paxton 17/3 Houck + Whitlock + Bello 9/1 Kluber 11/1 Pivetta + Crawford

Mark Polishuk reports... Garrett Whitlock threw 79 pitches in a Triple-A rehab start today, and Red Sox manager Alex Cora told reporters (including The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey) that Whitlock will be activated from the 15-day IL in time to start Saturday’s game against the Diamondbacks. Whitlock’s return won’t push anyone out of the rotation for now, as Cora said that Boston will use six starters over their six games this week, sandwiched around Thursday’s off-day. The team will re-assess the pitching situation after this full turn through a six-man rotation, Cora said, taking advantage of another off-day on May 29 to reset the staff as necessary. The probable starters? (With so many days off, I'm not sure a 6 man rotation is the best idea, but the extra rest should help, and maybe one more start might answer some questions- or raise more.) We have a doubleheader June 3rd but have the 5th off. Mon Houck @ LAA v Barria Tue Bello @ LAA v Canning Wed Paxton @ LAA v T Anderson Thu OFF Fri Sale @ AZ Sat Whitlock @ AZ Sun Kluber (last start as a Sox?) @ AZ Mon OFF Tue Houck (+2 days rest) v CIN Wed Bello (+2) v CIN Thur Paxton (+2) v CIN Fri Sale (+2) v TBR Sat(1) Whitlock (+2) v TBR Sat(2) Kluber? (+0?) vs TBR Sun Houck (+0) v TBR Mon OFF June 5th We then play 9 straight games- most likely with a 5 man rotation (@CLE & NYY and at home COL) day off, 10 straight, day off on June 26th

If he gets to 20 GS'd, he will likely have earned it. he might not get past 11 or 12 starts.

When Story and Duvall return, maybe we see this for playing time. (When Mondesi returns, who knows what happens?) C Wong/McGuire continue, as is. 1B Casas vs most RHPs/ Turner vs some RHPs and all LHPs 2B Valdez vs most RHPs/ Kike vs some RHPs and all LHPs (Arroyo traded) SS Story FT (Kike gives rest) 3B Devers FT (Turner gives rest) LF Duvall vs most RHPs and some LHPs/Yoshida vs some RHPs and some LHPs CF Duran vs all RHPs/Duvall vs most LHPs & Duran vs some LHPs (Kike some?) RF Verdugo FT (Duvall gives rest) DH Turner v most RHPs/ Yoshida vs some RHPs and most LHPs I think we can find enough playing time for Kike, Valdez, Casas and Duran. Yoshida, Turner and Duvall will play pretty much FT but at different positions. Mondesi is a switch hitter, but he has been sporadic at the plate and one wonders how the injury will affect his defense. He may not play much, once he returns. A lot might depend on how Kike and Valdez are doing.

I get it. Plus, they are the only starters we have, right now, that can go 7. (Bello walks too many to get to 7.)

I don't think acquiring a decent SP'er before July is something we can hope for, but sure, when the time comes, great! I'm fine with Story at SS, if the Sox think he's okay there. I see a Kike-Valdez platoon at 2B and maybe an Arroyo trade. I think when Duvall returns, it will be decision time for Casas. Duran CF, Duvall/Yoshida LF, Yoshida/Turner DH, Turner/Casas 1B. We can make it work. Duvall can play some CF, when Duran sits, and some RF, too, when Dugo needs a break. It might end up as a Casas vs most righties and no lefties.

Who are we "adding?" Someone successful as the long man?

Yes, I went back and looked. You were right. My concern was largely unfounded. I no longer feel it was all that risky.

So is Kluber's... LOL!

I don't either.

$20M in 2025 might be the going rate for a 3 starter by then.

That is an awful K rate and even higher than his 2018 rate in the minors (32%.) The main issue, to me, with dalbec is that the BB rate never has transferred to the bigs. OBP .347 Rk/A- 2017 .361 AA/A+ 2018 .356 AAA/AA 2019 .359 MLB in 92 PAs 2020 .298 MLB 2022 (.302 AAA) .283 MLB 2023 (.405 AAA)

Wouldn't that be something! BTW, this is Sale's remaining contract: 24:$27.5M, 25:$20M club option (2025 option guaranteed if Sale finishes in top 10 in 2024 Cy Young vote and is not on the injured list at end of 2024 season)

I don't think it is in anybody's best interest to run Paxton into the ground. That being said, I did not mean to open a can of worms by saying I was scared about letting him go over 90-100 pitches. After looking at all his starts in AAA, it doesn't look like a big deal, anymore, to me, but I do think we probably don't want him to go 109 pitches, every 5 days. If they guy keeps grooving it, I'm all for letting him go 110. (Yes, I flipped.)

I guess not wanting to pay an old pitcher for 2 or more years means they don't "trust him."