moonslav59

I looked at the schedule, the other day, trying to find a weak stretch, and I couldn't really find many. Kinda spread out in 3s and 6s. 3 v CIN next series 3 COL mid June 3@CWS & 3 v MIA for 6 straight end of June OAK for 3 B4 Allstar break then @CHC for 3 after, followed by @OAK for 3 more. That's 9 in a row- sort of. Starting AUG 8: 4 v KCR and 3 v DET then @WSH for 3 (another 9) Early SEP 3 @ KCR CWS for 6 starting SEP 22nd. Two 9 game stretches between July 7 and Aug 17 with all star break in between.

In the long run, Casas seems to be improving on O.

Maybe he settles into a key RP'er role.

Cole got lit up, too, but they are still in the game with the O's. BAL 5-4 after 6. It's good to know 2 of our division foes will lose, tonight. We need to use that as an advantage.

And, their massive run differential, up to today.

Stunningly bad. To think how well we have done, despite those numbers. Of the 100 pitchers over 40 IP, Sale is 22nd worst, so we have 3 SP'ers in the bottom 22!

https://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/park-factors.php#:~:text=Park%20Factor%20(PF)%20compares%20the,than%201.000%20favors%20the%20pitcher. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors

We seem to do better against good pitchers.

In February, I was hopeful one from Mata, Walter or Murphy could give us a mid season boost- not anymore. I'm not sure any will ever step foot on a MLB field. I have more hope in the farther away pitchers. I'm impressed by our young class in the bigs, right now- more so than I have since the Lester days.

It looks to be one of the better foundations in a while. SP has the ETAs of these kids: 2023: Mata 2024: Drohan, Walter, L Guerrero, R Fernandez 2025: Wikelman 2026: Perales, E R-C ??? Denlinger, Rogers, Dean, Paez, Encarnacion, Liu...

LOL vs our team with none.

Oh, there are mosre busts than just him. I was just pointing out the good ones or the turn-arounds. Several prospects are gone.

Okay, right on the Pivetta differential is big, but it's not like 5.17 is something to brag about with Wong. He's worse with both compared to 2021-2022. On Sale, you don't think he'd have been rusty with Wong over the first few starts, and YES, I do think switching says something big. I've never argued Cora, Bloom or pitchers prefer McGuire or think he's better. He hasn't been better. No, it doesn't sound like I'm desperately searching. You said all starters and Crawford sucked with Wong. He was as many starts as Paxton and just 1/3 those of Bello. My only beef was with the deceptive phrase you used to compare Wong and McGuire, when many comps can't be counted due to no sample sizes for one half the comp, and a few others are so lop-sided, they should not count. (If they do, then so should Crawford and even Wink.) To me, the record is 3-2 in Wong's favor and some of the Wong wins need context. Honestly, do you think sale would suck, now had McGuire stayed catching him? Kluber would be much better had Wong caught him? It's hard to imagine a further decline from Houck and Whitlock from 2021--2022 than they've had with Wong, but I suppose they could have been even worse. My point is there is too much nuance to tell much, at this point, but yes, Wong has a better CERA and catches only the good pitchers.

I think Bloom expected numbers near 2021-2022: 4.17 ERA 3.66 FIP 1.25 WHIP 4.1 K/BB If he was at 4.60 or 4.70, we might not even be talking about him.

Not sure why 2019 matters, then, either, or why it matters more than 2018. My point was that his xFIP seems out of whack, too, and pretty much always does- one way or the other.

About what I expected from Nate and better than Kluber's expectations.

It kind of jumps out at me, how many Bloom prospect trade acquisitions are taking a big step forward, this year in their numbers, anyway: Wong (Betts trade) joining Verdugo in starting off as a career season. (.704 OPS and 8th on team in PAs) Winckowski (Beni trade): exploding off the charts at the MLB level (2.15 ERA and 5th on the team in IP.) E Valdez (Vaz Trade) .800 OPS at MLB level in 68 PAs (13th on team and rising) W Abreu (Vaz Trade) .864 OPS is the best in his minor league career (1st year in AAA) Hamilton (Renfroe Trade) .862 OPS is best in minor league career (also first season in AAA) Corey Rosier (Groome Trade) .818 in first year at AA (22 SB in 30 games) Max Ferguson (Groome Trade) .742 in A+, but .386 OBP (better than career .707) 19 SB in 32 games Theo Denlinger (Frank German Trade) 1.84 ERA at AA (.392 OPSA!!!! and 0.818 WHIP) Luis de la Rosa (Beni Trade) 2.88 ERA at A (.576 OPSA) & Grant Gambrell (Beni) 4.34 ERA A+/AA

His higher xFIP is farther from his career xFIP than his ERA is from his career ERA.

I'm not sure what to read into the xFIP v ERA point. It seems like every good ERA season he has had, his xFIP is worse, and every bad season he has had, his xFIP is better- sometimes by a lot. ERA/ xFIP 2.78/3.36 3.20/3.71 3.38/3.88 5.09/4.05 4.13/3.88 3.20/4.12 4.76/4.80 (2019 is the only trend buster, but still: every other ERA season over 4.00 has a better xFIP) 6.62/4.30 5.05/3.91 3.32/3.99 3.58/4.61 (Every season with an ERA below 4.00 had a worse xFIP) If you are going to us xFIP and ERA differentials to put Wacha down, then shouldn't you also be saying he was much better during his "off years" than the number showed?

I don't think Kluber should count in the discussion, because of this and the 8 to 1 split. Houck, Whitlock, Paxton and Crawford have only started with Wong, and Houck/Whitlock have sucked compared to 2021-2022, so how can they count in Wong's favor? That leaves Pivetta (not a big differential), Bello (only 6 GS) and Sale (who has only been caught by Wong since his adjustment period.) It's too nuanced to draw any major conclusions, and CERA is often that way, especially with small or unbalanced sample sizes- sometimes both. The major changes from 2022-2023: Whitlock and Houck- major declines (only caught by Wong) Crawford and Wink- major improvement (much better with mcGuire) To me, this pretty much muddles the picture on Wong being clearly better.

I was not impressed with the higher price SP'er options, this year. I was okay with signing Kluber and expected better than this, for sure. I would not have paid Nate for 2 years and lose the comp pick. I was skeptical about the Eflin attempt, but that would have been nice. I liked Wacha and thought he'd get $26M/3 or $20M/2.

He's had 3 good seasons and 3 others not so bad or with limited IP. That's close to half his seasons, and people are making it sound like he has a 1 in 10 chance at having a good season. OK, 3 seasons in a row before 2022 is concerning, but he did have a 4.47 FIP in 2021, so he wasn't horrific. Nate was at 5.99 in 2019 and missed a big chunk of time (25% or more) in 2020 and 2021. Wacha has a career 4.03 ERA and a 4.05 FIP. The 5.11 ERA from 2019-2021 should ot be swept under the rug, but it is also not the be all end all point. Yes, he misses time, too, but... 2019-2022 IP 413 Wacha 408 Nate 281 Kluber 2020-2022 340 Nate 286 Wacha 245 Kluber 2021-2022 293 Nate 252 Wacha 244 Kluber

If Wacha gives 2 good years, he's worth $26M- a trizillion percent! He's on his way to one.

Yea, I think I short-changed Abreu.

I'm not disagreeing on the concern over McGuire getting the most from the few pitchers both catch a significant amount of time- which isn't many. I do think just about all of our SP'ers would say the prefer Wong, at this point in time- maybe even Kluber. I don't think Crawford or Wink would, but they are not starters, right now. I'm just trying to point out that it's not 8 to nothing.